Archives of “November 1, 2019” day

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US October non-farm payrolls +128K vs +85K expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Highlights of the October US employment report:

nonfarm payrolls
  • Prior was +136K (revised to +180K)
  • Estimates ranged from +25K to +140K
  • Two month net revision +95K
  • Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.6% expected (prior 3.5%)
  • Participation rate 63.3% vs 63.1% exp (63.2% prior)
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% exp
  • Avg hourly earnings 3.0% y/y vs +3.0% exp
  • Prior avg hourly earnings 2.9% (revised to 3.0%)
  • Avg weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 exp
  • Private payrolls +131K vs +80K exp
  • Manufacturing -36K vs -55K expected
  • U6 underemployment 7.0% vs 6.9% prior
  • Temporary census hiring were reduced by 17K
This is a very strong report. The GM strike wasn’t as large of a drag (cut 41.6K jobs) and those revisions are great. If you look at that chart, there’s no real sign of slowing in the US economy.
Another thing to note is that the participation rate continues to tick higher. That’s something the Fed wants to see and something that will embolden the doves (and they’re almost all doves now) to keep rates low even if the economy picks up.

Big moves down in US yields today

  
  Analysis

5 year down -9.3  bps leads the way lower

The US yields are moving sharply lower today. The yield declines are being led by the 5 year which is down -9.3 basis points. The 2 year is down -7.8 bps and the 10 year is down -8.8 bps. Below are the current, high and lows of the day for the different maturities.
5 year down -9.3  bps leads the way lower

Looking at the benchmark 10 year yield chart below, the yield moved above the 100 day MA at the start week, but has moved back below on the back of a softer Fed.  That 100 day MA comes in at 1.8101%. Stay below, keeps the downside trajectory in play.

10 year yields

No records today. Major indices close lower

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq leads the month charge forward

The major US stock indices are ending the day with declines but it could have been worse.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -9.21 points oro -0.30% at 3037.56. Yesterday was a record close. So the decline today is makes it easy. No record today.  The high price reached 3046.90 . The low was down at 3023.19.
  • The Nasdaq fell -11.617 points or -0.14% at 8292.35. The high reached 8321.80. The low extended to 8248.80
  • The Dow is closing down -140.46 points or -0.52% at 27046.23. The high reached 27188.37. The low extended down to 26918.29
The % changes of the major stock indices today
Today is also month end (Happy Halloween). The major indices are ending the month higher.
  • Dow, up 0.48%
  • S&P up 2.04%
  • Nasdaq up 3.66%.

For the year, the major indices are still showing strong gains after the down year in 2018.

  • Dow, +15.94%
  • S&P, +21.17%
  • Nasdaq, +24.97%.
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