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Rare-earth metals fall to 7-month lows as China resumes Myanmar supply

The prices of rare-earth metals have tumbled from their June highs after China, a key refiner, resumed the import of ores from Myanmar in September but supply concerns continue to plague the market.

In mid-November, neodymium, an ingredient of permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, was traded at around $54 per kilogram, while dysprosium, which is added to improve permanent magnets’ heat resistance, was traded at around $230 per kilogram. Both values were 20% lower than their recent highs in June, and at their lowest points since April.

China’s Yunnan Province, which borders Myanmar, suspended imports of all resources, including rare-earth ores, from its neighbor in November 2018. It was thought that this move was a crackdown on the smuggling of rare-earth metals into China from mines in neighboring Kachin State and other places in Myanmar, where many Chinese were working.

Rare-earth ores mined in Myanmar contain high concentrations of dysprosium, which is mined in only limited areas in China. Myanmar had become an attractive source for Chinese refiners as its rare metals are traded at relatively low prices due to cheap labor and loose environmental protection.

The suspension of imports from Myanmar has pushed up dysprosium prices since the start of the year, paving the way for soaring rare-earth metal prices in May and June over speculation that China could announce a ban on imports. Rare-earth metal prices are particularly susceptible to movements in China’s market, given its small size and the country’s dominance.

But the suspension was abruptly lifted in late September and even now, traders have few clues as to the reasons behind China’s move. “I have no idea what is going on,” said Yutaka Kawasaki, general manager of Samwood, a Japanese trading house that deals in rare earth. (more…)

US dollar slumps as we close in on the London fix

Heavy dollar selling

The dollar selling the models predicted into the London fix is kicking in.
That has helped to send EUR/USD up to 1.1020 after hitting a low of 1.0981 at the start of North American trade.
The move in USD/CAD is particularly impressive given the huge drops in oil and natural gas prices. Crude is now down more than $2 on the day yet USD/CAD is at a session low at 1.3279.

Economic data coming up in the European session

Eurozone CPI in focus in a packed calendar in Europe

Comic 29-11

Happy Friday, everyone! And to all our US readers who are still away, I wish you a good break over the Thanksgiving holiday once again.

It’s been a quiet start to proceedings as currencies remain little changed, with the push and pull in the US-China trade rhetoric still casting a large shadow over markets for now.
Looking ahead, we’ll have quite a number of data points to navigate through in the European morning but all of which should have minimal impact on markets – barring any major surprises – ahead of what will be another holiday-thin trading over in North America.
0700 GMT – Germany October retail sales data
Prior release can be found here. An indication of consumption activity in the German economy. A minor data point but just be wary of any major beats/misses in case.
0745 GMT – France October consumer spending data
Prior release can be found here. A general read of consumption activity to start Q4 in France, a minor data point.
0745 GMT – France November preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. This will feed into overall inflation ahead of the Eurozone reading later, to be taken in alongside the German and Spanish readings yesterday.
0745 GMT – France Q3 final GDP figures
The preliminary release can be found here. As this is the final reading, it shouldn’t really offer much but just reaffirm economic conditions seen from the initial report.
0800 GMT – Switzerland November KOF leading indicator index
Prior release can be found here. The data here measures the future trends of overall economic activity in the Swiss economy. Low-tier data.
0855 GMT – Germany November unemployment rate, change
Prior release can be found here. Given the fact that there has been troubling signs surrounding the German labour market, this release may well overshadow the euro area CPI data if it continues to hint at more weakness later today.
0930 GMT – UK October mortgage approvals, credit data
Prior release can be found here. General read of credit conditions in the UK economy, which has continued to struggle amid Brexit and political uncertainty. A minor data point.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Inflation pressures are expected to keep more steady this month but the main thing to watch will be the core reading. If that holds up, it should provide more comfort for the ECB going into next year at least.
1000 GMT – Italy November preliminary CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Focus will be on the overall Eurozone figures released at the same time. This will merely act as an accompaniment to that.
1000 GMT – Eurozone October unemployment rate
Prior release can be found here. Labour market conditions are still keeping tight over the last few months but as noted above with Germany, we may start to see some negative spillovers from the economic slowdown in the region. That will be one of the more key signs to watch in the coming months.
1100 GMT – Italy Q3 final GDP figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final release, it should just reaffirm sentiment of flattish growth in the Italian economy for the third quarter.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!
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