Archives of “October 2019” month

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USD/JPY holds at near two-month highs, what levels to look out for today?

  
Analysis, Forex

USD/JPY trades at its highest levels since 1 August

USD/JPY D1 29-10

The pair remains underpinned as risk trades are looking perky to start the new week, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high and Treasury yields climbing on trade optimism.
That said, price is now running into key resistance from the 200-day MA (blue line) @ 109.06 and that will be the key resistance level to watch out for today.
If buyers can break above that on the daily close, the bias will shift towards favouring them for the first time since May this year.
However, there are key risk events still to follow during the week with the Fed meeting decision notably still to come tomorrow.
Although a rate cut is a shoe-in at this point, it is all about the Fed communication on future rate decisions and that will be the spot to pay attention to for risk trades.
For today, there are also large expiries around 109.00-10 so that may help to keep price action limited around the figure level until they roll off.
If anything else, continue to keep your eye on Wall St to see if investors will push stocks to new record highs after a solid start yesterday.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.47% at 22,974.13

  
Analysis, Global Indices

The Nikkei touches the 23,000 mark but ends the day just shy of that

Nikkei 29-10

Japanese stocks continue to inch higher on the week with the Nikkei a stone’s throw from a close above the 23,000 level now.

The mood among equities in the region is more mixed though with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite down by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.
However, the overall risk mood is looking more steady with US futures up 0.1% after a record close for the S&P 500 overnight. That is helping to buoy sentiment in Asia for the most part, besides some worries about the Chinese economy.
Looking ahead, the more steady risk mood should keep yen pairs underpinned in the session ahead with USD/JPY lurking around the 109.00 handle as large expiries around 109.00-10 a potential factor at keeping price action in-check for now.

US House of Representatives looking likely to move forward on the Trump impeachment – here’s what you need to know.

  
Analysis, Politics

I reckon need to know number 1 is Trump is unlikely to end up being impeached. IMO anyway.

But, before the final decision is made here is a good summary of the process that’ll unfold via AFP. A decent guide, not a legal text, K?
I reckon need to know number 1 is Trump is unlikely to end up being impeached. IMO anyway.
As for market impact … dunno. But I suspect not a lot. Again, IMO.

Federal Reserve FOMC decision due Wednesday – preview

  
  Analysis
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Via Société Générale, in brief:
  • Fed… likely to cut
  • A more favourable economic outlook, however, suggest two things: First, that recent rate cuts were offered only as an insurance policy and second, that the Fed is likely to pause on any further rate moves. 
  • We see any such pause as short lived. 
  • By spring 2020, economic evidence should, in our view, compel further rate cuts.
  • Balance sheet details are also a key item.
Federal Open Market Committee meet Wednesday 30 October 2019 

US Senator plans legislation to block US govt pensions from investing in Chinese stocks

  
  Analysis
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Senator Marco Rubio want legislation to block the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board from investing in Chinese stocks

  • The Board delayed a decision on switching the benchmark for its $50 billion TSP I Fund to mirror an index with Chinese assets
  • for at least two weeks
  • Rubio said he would introduce bipartisan legislation “to ensure that federal retirement savings can never be a source of wealth funding the Chinese Communist Party at the expense of our nation’s future prosperity”

Tudor Jones says stocks would drop 25% on a Warren presidential win

  
Analysis, US Market
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Paul Tudor Jones says that a win from Elizabeth Warren in the US 2020 presidential election would prompt a 25% drop in the S&P500.

  • Cites concerns over her proposed wealth tax
PTJ was speaking at a conference on Monday in NY, Bloomberg report citing people familiar with his presentation. 
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warren is a contender for the Dem nomination. 

S&P index closes at an all time record. Nasdaq trades above record close.

  
Analysis, US Market

Nasdaq can’t stay above the record close level

The S&P index is closing at an all-time record high. The NASDAQ index traded above the all-time record close, but backed off into the close. The index also failed to reach the all-time intraday high price at 8339.64. The high for the day reached 8335.56

The final numbers are showing:

  • S&P index up 16.87 points or 0.56% at 3039.42
  • NASDAQ index up 82.86 points or 1.01% at 8325.98
  • Dow up 132.66 points or 0.49% at 27090.72
In after hours trading Alphabet earnings missed although revenues beat marginally.
Earnings-per-share $10.12 versus $12.42 estimate
Revenues $40.5 billion versus $40.32 billion estimate
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