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EU said to see Brexit deal as impossible unless the UK moves

The pound sinks further on the headlines

  • Technical Brexit negotiations said to have reached an impassse
  • Brexit negotiations may collapse amid DUP resistance towards a deal
  • Fate of Brexit negotiations said to hinge on a move from London now
This is coming via Bloomberg and reaffirms the earlier sentiment that we’re reaching a bit of a sticking point as the DUP is failing to get on board with the proposed Brexit deal.
The pound has fallen further on waning optimism with cable dropping to a low of 1.2658 from 1.2730 before recovering to near 1.2700 currently.

China says will remove business restrictions for foreign financial institutions

Comments via Chinese state media

China
  • Will remove business restrictions for foreign banks, securities companies and fund management firms
Adds that they will not allow forced technology transfers by foreign firms as well. The state media also notes that the above move is to offer a more attractive environment for foreign firms to invest into China.
The timing of the message here is no doubt a little “convenient” as they want to make sure that the US is aware that they are making efforts to keep up their end of the bargain in the trade truce. Or at least to give out the perception that they are.

France’s Le Maire: There is a glimmer of hope for a Brexit deal

Comments by French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire

  • Reiterates that it is more preferable to have a Brexit deal than no-deal
  • Will have to see what concessions have been made in Brexit negotiations
  • Red line remains the importance of protecting European single market
Nothing that really stands out here from Le Maire but for now, we could be still headed towards some form of draft deal ahead of the summit tomorrow.
That said, it remains to be seen whether or not the deal will fly with the UK parliament. I reckon that’s more of the spot to watch rather than how things will play out with the EU.

China urges US to stop pushing forward bill over Hong Kong

China strongly condemns the House passage of the bill

This is in relation to this earlier:
  • US House of Reps passes a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors
China response reported via Bloomberg.
US-China tensions go beyond trade issues. At the margin this is a negative input for risk related assets and a positive for havens. i.e negative something like AUD/JPY
More:
  • China to retaliate over US House bill on Hong Kong

GBP/JPY is on a remarkable run

The pair is up 850 pips in the past four trading days

The pair is up 850 pips in the past four trading days
The best place to see the combination of the turn in sentiment on Brexit and the US-China trade deal is in GBP/JPY. The pair has rallied to 139.24 from 130.73 early on Friday.
That’s a monster rally by any standards and captures the squeeze in the pair. Once again today it’s the best-performing duo in a signal that there might be more of a squeeze left.
In the bigger picture, we’re now at the highest levels since May and resistance has now turned to support. The 135.66 level proved to be the retracement to buy this week and unless talks fall apart, I don’t think we will see that again.
Instead, look to the 137.80-138.00 range as an opportunity to buy.

US Stocks jump, government bonds sell-off on Brexit draft deal hopes

US and European stocks jumped, government bonds sold off and the pound leapt as investors remained hopeful British and EU negotiators were close to a draft deal on Brexit. The S&P 500 finished 1 per cent higher in New York on Tuesday in a broad-based rally that was the benchmark’s fourth advance in five sessions and left it about 1 per cent from its record high close in late July. Healthcare was the best-performing sector in the index as investors cheered earnings from Johnson & Johnson, while the telecommunications services and technology sectors were next best. Several key banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs reported earnings ahead of the open in New York. In early trade, JPMorgan was the standout gainer, but the broad market rally today ultimately lifted the share prices of rivals.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2 per cent. US Treasuries tumbled, driving yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was up 1.8 basis points to 1.771 per cent, having been down 4 bps earlier in the session. European stocks extended gains to leave the broad Stoxx 600 up 1.1 per cent and Germany’s Dax up 1.2 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 closed fractionally lower. Sterling was up 1.2 per cent in afternoon trade in New York to $1.2766 and gained 1.3 per cent against the euro to €1.1572, its highest since May, spurred along by a Bloomberg report that UK and EU negotiators were now close to a draft Brexit deal.

Reflecting the sell-off in the government bond markets, the yield on the UK 10-year Gilt was up 0.6 bps to 0.699 per cent, while that on the Germany’s 10-year Bund rose 1.9bp to minus 0.405 per cent. Earlier in the day, Michel Barnier, Brussels’ chief Brexit negotiator, has said a new withdrawal deal between the EU27 and the UK is “still possible” this week, but warned that it has become “more and more difficult” as the clock ticks towards a crucial bloc summit starting on Thursday. Figures released earlier Tuesday showed investor sentiment about the German economy declined less than expected in October, while remaining subdued over worries about the US-China trade war and the potential for a disruptive Brexit. Asian equity markets were mixed, with Japan’s Topix outperforming as traders returned from a holiday.

China’s CSI 300 gauge of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed names fell 0.4 per cent after data showed consumer price inflation increased at its fastest pace in six years in September. US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin warned overnight that a new round of tariffs set for December 15 on $156bn of Chinese goods would be triggered if Beijing failed to seal the limited deal tentatively struck with Donald Trump last week, underlining the fragility of that truce. “Not enough was achieved to alter meaningfully the fundamental global economic outlook, in our view,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We maintain an underweight to equities. We will be looking for signs of progress on unresolved trade issues and a response in the economic data that might lead us to reassess our positioning.”

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