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China Beige Book says the country’s economy the weakest it has been all year in Q3

China’s economy at its weakest for the year, CBB saying manufacturing, property and the services sectors all worsening

  • lending has increased
  • current weakness in the economy is primarily due to manufacturing
  • drop in exports a factor
  • most of the decline was due to “considerably slower sales price growth
Bloomberg with the report.
China Beige Book adapts methodology used by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book”
  • It’s a privately produced quarterly report
  • Uses quantitative & qualitative data to track conditions within the Chinese economy

Trump impeachment – White House preparing to release whistleblower complaint to Congress

Politico on the latest, citing ” a senior administration official”.

  • White House is preparing to release to Congress by the end of the week both the whistleblower complaint and the Inspector General report that are at the center of House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry
  • The move shows the level of seriousness with which the administration is now approaching the House’s new impeachment proceedings
Politico on the latest, citing " a senior administration official".

Brexit – Looks like the Financial Times has written the obituary for Boris Johnson’s prime ministership

The FT with a summary of the UK PM’s achievements in office:

In three months as prime minister Mr Johnson
  • has suffered an unprecedented defeat in the Supreme Court, 
  • lost his parliamentary majority, 
  • expelled 21 Tory MPs, 
  • seen the resignation of his brother from the government, 
  • and had his Brexit strategy torn to shreds.
Link here for more, FT may be gated
The FT with a summary of the UK PM's achievements in office:I’ll bet if I caption this “The new Dumb and Dumber movie looks like a hoot!” I’ll just upset some sad politics folks. Best I don’t.

Overnight :Not a good day on Wall Street as major indices react to potential impeachment proceedings

Nasdaq stocks lead the charge lower

The US major industries are closing lower on the day led by the NASDAQ stocks. Some major stocks like Netflix and Amazon fell sharply.  Today Netflix’s most bullish analyst slashed his price target for the stock from $515-$350. The stock was as high as $380 in July. For Amazon it fell below its 200 day moving average today.
The closing numbers for the major indices are showing:
  • S&P index, -25.18 points or -0.84% at 2966.60
  • NASDAQ index fell -118.83 points or -1.46% at 7993.62
  • Dow fell -142.22 point surmise 0.53 present at 26807.73
Although the indices were off the lows for the day (see % chante ranges for the major indices in North America and Europe below), they are ending nearer the lows for the day.

US 10-year yields near support

The drop continues

The drop continues
US 10-year yields bounced from the lows of the year on better signs of a trade deal between the US and China.
Arguably, the trade news has continued to be positive but the bond market isn’t believing it. The 10-year is now threatening the 61.8% retracement of the bounce from the lows at the start of the month.
That’s an ominous signal. Watch 1.60%-1.61% to see if it holds in the next few days. If it gives way, it spells trouble for USD/JPY and other risks trades.

US insider stock selling is at a 20-year high

That’s not a good sign

This is a story that’s doing the rounds, from the FT:
Corporate insiders – typically chief executives, chief financial officers and board members – sold a combined $19bn of stock in their companies through to mid-September, according to data from Smart Insider, a UK-based group
If that pace continues through year-end, it would hit $26 billion and that would be the highest since 2000 (an ominous year, no doubt).
Heavy sellers have been at Estee Lauder, Lululemon and the Walton family (Wal-Mart) who have sold $2.2 billion alone.

Trump: Hopes for allowing China into WTO have failed

Trump on China at the UN

Trump on China at the UN
  • China hasn’t adopted promised reforms
  • China uses heavy state subsidies, steals IP
  • Cites company stealing Micron’s products in China
  • WTO needs drastic change
  • World’s second-largest economy shouldn’t be allowed to call itself a developing country
  • The days of globalism are over
  • Says he’s placed tariffs on over $500B of Chinese goods
  • Hopefully we can find a deal that’s good for both countries, but I will not accept a bad deal
  • Says carefully watching situation in Hong Kong
  • Expects China to honor treaty on Hong Kong

If you’re China and listening to that, do you really think Trump wants to make a long-term deal?

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