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China ready to do deal on parts of deal both sides agree on. But tougher issues to be discussed next year

That’s not as good as it sounds

Fox Business reports that China’s commerce ministry told the US it’s prepared to do a deal on the parts of negotiations both sides agree upon. The ministry told Fox they’re prepared to set out a timetable for the harder issues to be worked out next year.
This report has boosted risk trades but it’s not all it seems. US officials — including Trump — have said many times that they want a big deal or no deal.
He said it on TV about 30 minutes ago but it’s moving the market now as it does the rounds. A reader who caught the clip on TV also tells us it wasn’t as positive as the spin that’s coming out.
Of course that can change and the US might be bluffing but I don’t see this being received as unambiguously good news. If anything, the initial market reaction might have it wrong as USD/JPY rises and gold falls.
USD/JPY:
USDJPY
Isn’t this just another way of saying ‘If you like what we’re offering, take it; as for the parts you don’t like, we can talk about those some other time, because we’re not going to discuss those now.’.

US considering limits on US portfolio flows into China

That would be big

Trump and Xi
That’s not a good sign for trade talks.
Bloomberg reports that the White House is discussing ways to limit US investors portfolio flows into China in a move that would be akin to capital restrictions.
It would be a major escalation in the trade war.
They’re also considering de-listing Chiense companies from US exchanges, examining limits on the Chinese companies included in stock indexes managed by US firms.
The report says Trump has given a greenlight to the discussions but that any plan would be subject to his approval.
This sounds a bit like a leak to put pressure on China but the trade is to de-risk and ask questions later. Chinese stocks are getting hit particularly hard.
I find it hard to believe that we’re headed towards a true, lasting trade deal when this kind of thing is on the table.

US insider stock selling is at a 20-year high

That’s not a good sign

This is a story that’s doing the rounds, from theĀ FT:
Corporate insiders – typically chief executives, chief financial officers and board members – sold a combined $19bn of stock in their companies through to mid-September, according to data from Smart Insider, a UK-based group
If that pace continues through year-end, it would hit $26 billion and that would be the highest since 2000 (an ominous year, no doubt).
Heavy sellers have been at Estee Lauder, Lululemon and the Walton family (Wal-Mart) who have sold $2.2 billion alone.