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Chinese trade delegation en route to Washington to sign Phase One trade deal – Global Times

Global Times with a tweet update on the matter

US China

The update reads:

The Chinese trade delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He has left Beijing en route to Washington DC to sign the phase one #tradedeal with US officials, a source told the Global Times on Monday. #tradetalks #tradewar

It looks like all is going according to plan and schedule – at least for now – with the deal expected to be signed off later in the week on 15 January.
As mentioned before, the details of the deal will be of particular importance so look towards that bit of information next as to how market participants will tie all of this to US-China trade sentiment in the bigger picture.
So far, markets are keeping more steady in the run up to the trade deal signing with risk faring rather decently today. USD/JPY is still keeping at fresh seven-month highs around 109.90 while gold is down by 0.7% around $1,550 at the moment.

Global Times editor: US has turned Hong Kong into the focus of China-US competitiion

A tweet by Global Times’ editor-in-chief, Hu Xijin

“The US has turned HK into the focus of China-US competition. It’s all the people in Hong Kong, including foreigners and foreign companies that suffer. The mainland only feels limited pain. Beijing has no reason to back off on issue of sovereignty, and let HK be at US’ disposal.”

He’s making the above comment in relation to the bill that was passed by the US Senate earlier today, in which China views as interference to the situation in Hong Kong.
All this feeds into the trade rhetoric and if anything, it creates yet another potential barrier for both sides to try and get towards a “Phase One” trade deal.

Iran’s foreign minister questions US remarks: “Act of war” or “Agitation for war”?

Oil appears to be jumping on the tweet here by Zarif

The tweet reads:

“Act of war”or AGITATION for WAR?
Remnants of #B_Team (+ambitious allies) try to deceive @realdonaldtrump into war.
For their own sake, they should pray that they won’t get what they seek.
They’re still paying for much smaller #Yemen war they were too arrogant to end 4yrs ago.

Any call for war and undiplomatic resolve will up tensions in the region and keep oil prices underpinned. Trump played it down last night but it appears Iran is being more confrontational about the matter.
Oil prices are now at the highs for the day with Brent jumping nearly 2% to $64.90.
In related news, Saudi Arabia is said to have asked Iraq for 20 mil barrels of crude as Aramco seeks diesel, gasoline and fuel oil for domestic use. That could be another reason why oil prices are picking up over the past 15-20 minutes.

Trump tweets about tariffs and Fed

More of the same from Trump

Another tweet, just the regular stuff.
“China is eating the Tariffs.” Billions pouring into USA. Targeted Patriot Farmers getting massive Dollars from the incoming Tariffs! Good Jobs Numbers, No Inflation(Fed). China having worst year in decades. Talks happening, good for all!

ICYMI – Trump takes yet another dig at the Fed

Trump doesn’t appear to be relenting his stance ahead of the FOMC meeting

The tweet read:

“We are doing great Economically as a Country, Number One, despite the Fed’s antiquated policy on rates and tightening. Much room to grow!”

With markets already all but certain about a 25 bps rate cut at the end of this month and Powell reaffirming those expectations, it sure sounds like he wants more rate cuts to follow later in the year despite claims of the economy doing “great”.
The issue here is that Trump wants to pursue a currency war now and that is not what the Fed is looking to do. If the Fed is just throwing around rate cuts on the back of some slight worries in the economic data, they won’t have very much ammunition left to deal with a proper economic downturn when the time does come.
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