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US vs. German yield spread breaking down from a multi-year support line!

  
Analysis, Economy
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Last two times coincided with the peak of the tech & housing bubble.

Fed policy turning uber dovish with stocks already at record valuations & late in the business cycle? Never ends well.

How to Become a Disciplined Trader

  
  Education
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  1. The psychology of price movement
    • The market prices flow back and forth like a tug of war between those who believe and expect the market to go up–and consequently buy–and those that believe the market will go lower–and consequently sell.
    • This means for one side, in their minds, that “the market” will make them winners; their beliefs will be validated.  All the traders on the other side, however, will be made losers; they will feel the market took something away from them and will naturally be disappointed.
  2. The steps to success
    • Once you trust yourself to always do what needs to be done, there will be nothing to fear because the markets won’t be able to do anything to you, as a result of your inability to respond appropriately.
    • Second, by passing up other opportunities that you are not an expert at yet, you will be releasing yourself from any compelling desire to trade.  Any compelling behavior is usually the result of some fear.
    • Staying focused on what you need to learn–> Deal with losses–> Become an expert at just one market behavior–> Learning how to execute a trading system flawlessly–> Learn to think in probabilities–> Learn to be objective–> Learn to monitor yourself

How to Become a Disciplined Trader

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #
  1. The psychology of price movement
    • The market prices flow back and forth like a tug of war between those who believe and expect the market to go up–and consequently buy–and those that believe the market will go lower–and consequently sell.
    • This means for one side, in their minds, that “the market” will make them winners; their beliefs will be validated.  All the traders on the other side, however, will be made losers; they will feel the market took something away from them and will naturally be disappointed.
  2. The steps to success
    • Once you trust yourself to always do what needs to be done, there will be nothing to fear because the markets won’t be able to do anything to you, as a result of your inability to respond appropriately.
    • Second, by passing up other opportunities that you are not an expert at yet, you will be releasing yourself from any compelling desire to trade.  Any compelling behavior is usually the result of some fear.
    • Staying focused on what you need to learn–> Deal with losses–> Become an expert at just one market behavior–> Learning how to execute a trading system flawlessly–> Learn to think in probabilities–> Learn to be objective–> Learn to monitor yourself
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