To trade/invest successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is obviously imperative that we understand the economic fundamentals that will drive a market higher or lower, but we must understand the technicals as well. When we do, then and only then can we, or should we, trade. If the market fundamentals as we understand them are bullish and the trend is down, it is illogical to buy; conversely, if the fundamentals as we understand them are bearish but the market’s trend is up, it is illogical to sell that market short. Ah, but if we understand the market’s fundamentals to be bullish and if the trend is up, it is even more illogicalnot to trade bullishly. |
Archives of “technicals” tag
rssDENNIS GARTMAN’S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to
a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is
trading’s carcinogen; it is trading’s driving while intoxicated. It will lead to
ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We
must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct
economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital
comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than
the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs
immeasurable mental capital.
4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling
High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher.
Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or
Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may
seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. “Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You
or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often
reign, despite what the academics would have us believe. (more…)
Think Like A Fundamentalist & Trade Like A Technician
Someone once said that to trade successfully, you must think like a fundamentalist but trade like a technician. Do you agree?
A: Yes, I agree with it. Understanding the context and fundamentals, even when you trade the technicals can be helpful as long as you’re able to separate the two when needed. The problem is that many traders will have a bias toward one discipline over the other and will justify poor technicals with faith for the fundamentals. How traders handle these conflicts that arise from time to time and how flexible they are based on market conditions will make a huge difference.
Trading Lessons
The market is a tough battle. Each day there are chances and opportunities to make money though, it is the greatest form of free market capitalism known to man. It’s a vast ocean with treasures; we just have to be able to unearth them at the right moment. We have the ability to navigate carefully through markets, put our bets out there and see where the chips fall.
But if we are too loose with our capital then we are headed for a bad ending. Discipline is one of the keys to success: learn your craft and practice. Each day that passes is one more great learning experience – capture it, analyze it and grow from it. Use a trading system, pay attention to the timeless patterns of price/volume and believe in what you see and not what you hear. (more…)
5 Mistakes Traders Make Again & Again
There is a big difference between bad traders and good traders, here is what I think separates one from the other:
- Bad traders continually have the desire to short the hottest stocks with the strongest momentum. What is their reasoning? “It can’t go any higher, this price is ridiculous.” Do they understand it is a bull market, no. Do they understand the technicals or fundamentals that are driving this stock? No. Bad traders just trade their beliefs good traders trade proven methods.
- Bad traders continually believe they have found the trade “That just can’t lose.” It is a sure thing. No doubt about it. They trade BIG, they trade a HUGE position size. Unfortunately the most obvious trades are usually the losing trades, so they lose, and lose big. Good traders divide out their trades so that no one trade has too big of an impact on their account. Good traders realize EVERY trade can win or lose so they plan a quick exit for if they are wrong.
- Bad traders do not do the proper homework before they begin to trade. Really Bad traders enter the markets with a mile of ego along with mud puddle deep understanding of what really works in trading. Bad traders have the belief that they are more clever than the markets and they can win based on their own intelligence. The problem is they do not do the homework of studying charts, trends, robust systems, winning methods, the right psychology for winning traders, risk/reward ratios, or the danger of the risk of ruin, or how the top performing stocks acted historically, and on and on. The good traders learn what it takes to succeed in trading, the complete story, while the bad traders learn some basics and think they are ready. They are wrong. The markets will show them.
- Bad traders make low probability trades, they are where the profits come from for the good traders. They go short in bull markets and long in bear markets. They sell naked puts on stocks collapsing into death spirals and sell calls on the best momentum stocks. They trade with big risks for small profits. They have a few small wins but some really huge losses. When they have a winner they take the profits quickly, but if they have a loser they let it run hoping that it will come back. They are the ones that lose the money, they are on the other side of the good traders trades.
- Bad traders want a good tip. They just want to be handed a winning system or a hot stock that just can’t lose. They do not even understand what all the talk of trading psychology and risk management is all about. They don’t need all that, they just want to make money. They just want the fish, they do not care about the fishing pole, bait, boat, or how to fish. Unfortunately they were to busy looking for that fish and didn’t understand the art of fishing, they will drown in the market ocean because they never learned how to swim themselves.
10 Essential Trading Words
1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.
2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.
3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.
4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.
5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.
6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum.
7. Let’s profits run – one or two good trades might make your month. One or two good months might make your year. Letting profits run is as important as cutting losses short. Bigger winners will allow you the luxury to be right in less than half of the trades and still be profitable.
8. Consistency – Stick to your method of trading ideas’ generation.
9. Specialize – Specialize in one or two distinct setups. It could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals, certain timeframe or special event as a trading catalyst, certain sector or trading vehicle.
10. Have a plan – Which are stocks that you will be paying special attention to – this week, today. Why those stocks? In which direction you expect them to continue their move? What will give you a clue for the beginning of the move? Follow them exclusivelly and enter without a hesitation when they give you a signal. Don’t just wake up and sit in front of your monitor without having a clue what are you going to trade today.
10 Essential Trading Words
1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.
2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.
3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.
4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.
5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.
6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum. (more…)
10 Essential Trading Words
1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.
2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.
3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.
4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.
5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and to offer good risk/reward ratio.
6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum.
7. Let’s profits run – one or two good trades might make your month. One or two good months might make your year. Letting profits run is as important as cutting losses short. Bigger winners will allow you the luxury to be right in less than half of the trades and still be profitable.
8. Consistency – Stick to your method of trading ideas’ generation.
9. Specialize – Specialize in one or two distinct setups. It could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals, certain timeframe or special event as a trading catalyst, certain sector or trading vehicle.
10. Have a plan – Which are the stocks that you will be paying special attention to – this week, today. Why those stocks? In which direction you expect them to continue their move? What will give you a clue for the beginning of the move? Follow them exclusivelly and enter without a hesitation when they give you a signal. Don’t just wake up and sit in front of your monitor without having a clue what you are going to trade today.
Trading Secret
“I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: Fundamentals, Technicals, and Market Tone. If you can restrict your activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.”
15 Trading Rules
1. Don’t be a tradeaholic
- Someone who has to have a trade on at all times or they feel their missing out
2. You trade to make money – not for fun, games, or to escape boredom
3. Never add to a bad trade
- This may work occasionally, but will hurt you in the long run
4. Once you have a profit on a trade, never let it turn into a loss
5. No hoping, no wishing, no would’ve, no opinions, no should’ve
6. Don’t be a one way trader – be flexible, opportunities on both sides
7. Know your risk on each trade. Trade with stops to limit losses
- Sell down to the sleeping point (My favourite since 15 yrs )
8. Look for 3-1 profit objective trade
9. When initiating a trade, always get your price (use a limit order)
10. When liquidating a bad trade, always use a market order
11. Have a plan. Trade it. Monitor it.
12. Make 10 points on a million trades, not a million points on one trade
- Aim for consistency (it adds to your batting average)
- There are more opportunities to make many reasonable trades
13. Learn from your own mistakes
14. Pay attention to weekly lows and highs
15. Technicals and fundamentals are equally important.