- Follow the trends. This is probably some of the hardest advice for a trader to follow because the personality of the typical futures trader is not “one of the crowd.” Futures traders (and futures brokers) are highly individualistic; the markets seem to attract those who are. Very simply, it takes a special kind of person, not “one of the crowd,” to earn enough risk capital to get involved in the futures markets. So the typical trader and the typical broker must guard against their natural instincts to be highly individualistic, to buck the trend.
- Know why you are trading the commodity markets. To relieve boredom? To hit it big? When you can honestly answer this question, you may be on your way to successful futures trading.
- Use a trading system, any system, and stick to it.
- Apply money management techniques to your trading.
- Do not overtrade.
- Take a position only when you know where your profit goal is and where you are going to get out if the market goes against you.
- Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
- Don’t trade many markets with little capital.
- Don’t just trade the volatile contracts.
- Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against holding it too long.
- Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions. Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react. Don’t change during the session unless you have a very good reason.
- Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.
- Use technical signals (charts) to maintain discipline – the vast majority of traders are not emotionally equipped to stay disciplined without some technical tools.
Archives of “technical tools” tag
rssWhere Most Of Your Time Should Be Spent
Selecting the one or two super trades should consume most of your time. There’s a great deal of work and thinking to be done in comparing markets, finding the best Open Interest play and carefully reviewing the premiums. The average tendency is to rush over this section of trading simply because it seems more productive to look at all the technical wiggle-waggles.
In actuality, as I’ve said so many times, unless you are fundamentally right in your initial selection decisions, all the technical tools will do is get you in trouble. Please devote all your concentration and energies to the selection of your commodities before you give the technical data any consideration at all. Technical data is secondary to screening out the potential big winning trades.
The only technical tool to look at during this screening is the ten week moving average trend line. For a bullish situation it should be slanting up; for a bearish market, it should be slanting down.
by Larry Williams, excerpt from his book, How I Made $1,000,000 Trading Commodities Last Year.
Trading Lessons
- Most of the time, markets are very close to efficient (in the academic sense of the word.) This means that most of the time, price movement is random and we have no reason, from a technical perspective, to be involved in those markets.
- There are, however, repeatable patterns in prices. This is the good news; it means we can make money using technical tools to trade.
- The biases and statistical edges provided by these patterns are very, very small. This is the bad news; it means that it is exceedingly difficult to make money trading. We must be able to identify those points where markets are something a little “less than random” and where there might be a statistical edge present, and then put on trades in very competitive markets.
- Technical trading is nothing more than a statistical game. The parallels to gambling and other games of chance are very, very close. A technical trader simply identifies the patterns where an edge might be present, takes the correct position at the correct time, and manages the risk in the trade. This is, of course, a very simplified summary of the trading process, but it is useful to see things from this perspective. This is the essence of trading: find the pattern, put on the trade, manage the risk, and take profits.
- Because all we are doing is playing the small edges as they occur in the markets, it is important to be utterly consistent in every aspect of our trading. Many markets have gotten harder (i.e. more efficient, more of the time) over the past decade and things that once worked no longer work. Iron discipline is a key component of successful trading. If you are not disciplined every time, every moment of your interaction with the market, do not say you are disciplined.
- It is possible to trade effectively as a purely systematic trader or as a discretionary trader, but the more discretion is involved the more the trader himself is a key part of the trading process. It can be very difficult to sort out performance issues that are caused by markets, by natural statistical fluctuations, by the trading system not working, or by the trader himself. (more…)
Important Trading Lessons
These are some of those fundamental and undeniable truths, as I have come to understand them over the course of my trading career:
- Most of the time, markets are very close to efficient (in the academic sense of the word.) This means that most of the time, price movement is random and we have no reason, from a technical perspective, to be involved in those markets.
- There are, however, repeatable patterns in prices. This is the good news; it means we can make money using technical tools to trade.
- The biases and statistical edges provided by these patterns are very, very small. This is the bad news; it means that it is exceedingly difficult to make money trading. We must be able to identify those points where markets are something a little “less than random” and where there might be a statistical edge present, and then put on trades in very competitive markets.
- Technical trading is nothing more than a statistical game. The parallels to gambling and other games of chance are very, very close. A technical trader simply identifies the patterns where an edge might be present, takes the correct position at the correct time, and manages the risk in the trade. This is, of course, a very simplified summary of the trading process, but it is useful to see things from this perspective. This is the essence of trading: find the pattern, put on the trade, manage the risk, and take profits. (more…)
Magic of Fibonacci numbers
Elections are held after every 5 years
Results declared on 13th
Jayalalitha is back to power after 5 years
Congress got only 5 seats in Tamilnadu
Jagan Reddy got 5 lakh majority in Andhra
Mamata demolishes Communist Bastion after 34 years
Trinamool Congress was formed 13 years ago
At ASR we always strive to apply Technical Tools in hitherto unexplored areas.
Y’day we have published about IIP Data chart and forecasted it as 7.3
Earlier we have even forecasted Inflation Numbers using Technical charts.
Technically Yours/Anirudh Sethi/BARODA/India