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Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan report

  
  Analysis
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The BOJ’s Tanki Keizai Kansoku Chousa (Tankan) reports on the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan

Full report can be found from the Bank of Japan website here.
Headlines via Reuters:

 

  •  September big manufacturers index +18(Reuters poll: 13)
  • December big manufacturers index seen at +14(Reuters poll: 15)
  • September big non-manufacturers index +2(Reuters poll: 0)
  • December big non-manufacturers index seen at +3(Reuters poll: 5)
  • September small manufacturers index -3(Reuters poll: -9)
  • December small manufacturers index seen at -4(Reuters poll: -6)
  • September small non-manufacturers index -10(Reuters poll: -11)
  • December small non-manufacturers index seen at -13(Reuters poll: -9)
  • Japan all firms see dollar averaging 107.64 yen for fy2021/22
  • Japan all firms see euro averaging 126.50 yen for fy2021/22
  • Japan big manufacturers see dollar averaging 106.72 yen for fy2021/22
  • September all firms employment index -17
  • September all firms financial condition index +11 vs june +11
  • September big manufacturers’ production capacity index +1 vs june +1
  • Japan big manufacturers see fy2021/22 recurring profits +12.7%
  • Japan big firms see fy2021/22 capex +10.1% (Reuters poll: 9.1%)
  • Japan small firms see fy2021/22 capex +4.7% (Reuters poll: 1.6%)
  • BOJ September tankan corporate price expectations survey: Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise 0.7% a year from now vs +0.6% in prev survey
  • Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 1% 3 years from now vs +0.9% in prev survey
  • Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 1.1% 5 years from now vs +1.1% in prev survey

Reuters Tankan – Japan manufacturers sentiment index -6 (unchanged from December)

  
Analysis, Economy
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The monthly Reuters Tankan is more timely than the quarterly report of the same name from the BOJ.

  • January manufacturers’ sentiment index comes in at -6 (unchanged from Dec)
  • Service-sector index +14 in January vs. flat vs Dec
  •  Manufacturers’ mood seen up ahead, service sector down
Pessimism amongst Japanese manufacturers persisted in January, usual suspects cited:
  • China-U.S. trade tension
  • sluggish global demand
Looking ahead though,  some believed conditions will improve in the next few months
  • seen to 0 in April
Service-sector outlook sees 13 in April (slight fall)

BOJ quarterly Tankan report out now – manufacturing mood worsens

  
Analysis, Economy
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Bank of Japan survey is of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan

The main Q4 results:
Large Manufacturing Index: 0
  • est 4, prev 5
Large Non-Manufacturing Index 20, improving!
  • est 16, prev 21
Large Manufacturing Outlook 0
  • est 3, prev 2
Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook 18
  • est 16, prev 15

Japan – Reuters Tankan poll shows manufacturer outlook less pessimistic, service-sector sentiment three-month high

  
  Analysis
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The Reuters Tankan seeks to track the BOJ report. Reuters is monthly, BOJ Tankan is quarterly.

Japanese manufacturers’ business outlook was less pessimistic in October
service-sector sentiment rose to a three-month high
 manufacturers voiced worry about the protracted trade war and slowdown in China’s economy
some Japanese firms do not see the impact of the global slowdown immediately hurting the economy
Sentiment index for manufacturers minus 5,
  • up two points from the prior month’s 6-1/2-year low of minus 7
  • index is expected to minus 6 in January
service-sector index climbed to plus 25
  • from plus 19 in the previous month
  • led by retailers who have likely benefited from consumers rushing to beat the Oct. 1 sales tax which went up to 10% from 8%
Poll of 504 large- and mid-sized companies, in which 248 firms responded
  • conducted Sept. 26 to Oct. 7

Japan – Reuters Tankan report – manufacturing index hits lowest since 2013

  
  Analysis
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Reuters Tankan shows Japan manufacturers index -4 in August vs +3 in Jul.y

  • lowest reading since April 2013
  • and this is the first negative reading for the index in over 6 years

Non-manufacturers index +13 in August vs +25 in July

Manufacturers November index seen at +3, non-manufacturers seen unchanged

Commentary via Reuters …nails it:
  • Concerns about weakening global demand intensified
  • growing risk of a U.S. recession
  • Germany’s economy in contraction
  • China’s economy was worsening
  • further soured the outlook for export-reliant economies such as Japan’s
More:
  • “The U.S.-China trade war, Japan’s export curbs to South Korea and the recent yen rises have formed a bottleneck for sales” 
  • “The selling price remains in a downtrend due to expansion of e-commerce markets, while a scheduled sales tax hike keep shoppers on guard against price increases”
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The Reuters monthly poll, tracks the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) tankan quarterly survey
  • conducted July 31-Aug 14
  • total of 258 firms responded
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