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SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

  
  Analysis
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SNB announces its latest monetary policy decision – 18 June 2020

  • Prior -0.75%
  • Sight deposit interest rate unchanged at -0.75%
  • Remains willing to intervene more strongly in the FX market
  • Will remain active in the FX market as necessary
  • Swiss franc remains highly valued
  • Sees inflation this year at -0.7%, 2021 at -0.2%, 2022 at +0.2%
  • Anticipates that there will only be a partial recovery for the time being
  • Estimates that overall GDP is likely to contract by 6% this year
  • Full statement
Pretty much as good a non-event as can get as the SNB keeps policy unchanged and maintained that they will keep intervening strongly to limit the appreciation of the Swiss franc – as they have been doing over the past few months already.
They revised lower their inflation outlook, which reaffirms the notion that monetary policy is going to stay accommodative as it is now for the next few years at the very least.

German Economics Minister Confirms Fed Manipulates The FX Market

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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The German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle has just confirmed precisely what many have known and said for years, namely that the US Federal Reserve is active in the secondary markets, in this particular case in FX. While not so much of a secret for some of the fringe players such as a the SNB, BOE and BOJ, the Fed has never had a formal statement on currency intervention, as, of course, it would have been seen as a sign of weakness (and allegedly could be considered an unconstitutional activity). And why would anybody dream of manipulating the world’s strongest currency. Of course, if Bernanke manipulates currencies, as has now been confirmed, it is more than clear that he directly buys and sells stocks in the secondary market, and/or Treasuries in the primary. We wonder what other juicy disclosure Bernanke’s trans-Atlantic CB colleagues will announce once they are cornered about their recent market manipulative conduct.

From Dow Jones:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also active in currency markets, German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said Friday.

His comments come on the heels of remarks made by his Swiss counterpart who said that the Swiss National Bank purchased euros to buttress the single currency.

“It is a regular procedure of central banks,” to intervene in currency markets, Bruederle said. “It is not a secret,” that central banks have a foreign exchange rate target, he added.

Bruederle said “eruptive” movements have to be avoided. He previously said that China holds 25 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in euros.

 

Roubini: How to prevent a depression

  
Analysis, Education
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An eight point plan to minimise the fallout of another economic contraction.

AMSTERDAM – The latest economic data suggests that recession is returning to most advanced economies, with financial markets now reaching levels of stress unseen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The risks of an economic and financial crisis even worse than the previous one – now involving not just the private sector, but also near-insolvent sovereigns – are significant. So, what can be done to minimize the fallout of another economic contraction and prevent a deeper depression and financial meltdown?

First, we must accept that austerity measures, necessary to avoid a fiscal train wreck, have recessionary effects on output. So, if countries in the eurozone’s periphery are forced to undertake fiscal austerity, countries able to provide short-term stimulus should do so and postpone their own austerity efforts. These countries include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the core of the eurozone, and Japan. Infrastructure banks that finance needed public infrastructure should be created as well.

Second, while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful. The European Central Bank should reverse its mistaken decision to hike interest rates. More monetary and credit easing is also required for the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear, as renewed slack in goods, labor, real estate, and commodity markets feeds disinflationary pressures. (more…)

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