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3 Types of Confidence

First, is what I call ‘false confidence’ That’s the person who talks big and poses like a big shot. This type of person often takes big risks in an effort to either impress others or to assuage their own discomfort, and the results are often erratic and often end terribly.

 Next, there is temporary confidence, which is conditional on recent performance. This is the person whose self-esteem is tied to their account equity or P&L.  When on a good run, they feel confident and take larger risks (often the prelude to giving it all back). And when performance is lousy they start grasping at anything, maybe exiting winners prematurely or taking on excessive risk to get their money back.

 Finally, we have true confidence. This is confidence that does not depend on recent results. It is based on a deep sense of inner trust. This is the person who has a history of doing the right thing, regardless of the outcome. Doing the right thing in the sense that they act in their own best interest and trust and understand that doing so over time has a positive impact on results.  The trust runs deep enough to provide resilience in the face of disappointment.  This is true self-confidence, the kind you want in trading and in life. 

A dozen lessons from Jim Simons

1. “Models can lower your risk…. It reduces the daily aggravation.” With old-fashioned stock picking: “One day you feel like a hero. The next day you feel like a goat. Either way, most of the time it’s just luck.” “We don’t override the models.” 

2. “Certain price patterns are nonrandom and will lead to a predictive effect.” 

3.  “Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies, but we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time.” 

4. “Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance… That made a lot of money.” 

5. “Luck, is largely responsible for my reputation for genius. I don’t walk into the office in the morning and say, ‘Am I smart today?’ I walk in and wonder, ‘Am I lucky today?’” 

6. “We have three criteria. If it’s publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it.”  (more…)

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