Archives of “shocks” tag

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Jeremy Grantham's 10 Investment Lessons

  
  Education
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1. Believe in history: “history repeats and repeats, and forget it at your peril. All bubbles break, all investment frenzies pass away.”

2. Neither a lender nor a borrower be: “Unleveraged portfolios cannot be stopped out, leveraged portfolios can. Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience.”
3. Don’t put all your treasure in one boat: “This is about as obvious as any investment advice could be … Several different investments, the more the merrier, will give your portfolio resilience, the ability to withstand shocks.”
4. Be patient and focus on the long term: Wait for the good cards. If you’ve waited and waited some more until finally a very cheap market appears, this will be your margin of safety.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals: “The individual is far better-positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing, which is almost impossible for professionals.”
6. Try to contain natural optimism: “optimism comes with a downside, especially for investors: optimists don’t like to hear bad news.” (more…)

Volatility

  
  Education
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In periods of higher volatility and shocks across the board, as in the last week, be prepared to alter your trading plan as a position taker.

Where once a constructive market under low-medium volatility allowed you to set defined price entries, and the usual patterns and trading synergies of a particular market held true, which in effect gave you your original edge, now to perform when volatility picks up and markets change, don’t be so cute on your entries and exits.

In effect, if it gets close and you want a position, pull the trigger, reduce size and get involved, and be prepared to reload.

The added volatility and your experience in the market should more than make up for any short term hits.

Is your Trading Fragile? Robust? or Anti-Fragile

  
  Education
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Fragile- “Easily broken, shattered, or damaged; delicate; brittle; frail.”

Robust- “Strong and healthy; hardy; vigorous.”

Anti-Fragile- “A postulated antithesis to fragility where high-impact events or shocks can be beneficial. Anti-fragility is a concept developed by professor, former trader and former hedge fund manager Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Taleb coined the term “anti-fragility” because he thought the existing words used to describe the opposite of “fragility,” such as “robustness,” were inaccurate. Anti-fragility goes beyond robustness; it means that something does not merely withstand a shock but actually improves because of it.”

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