Archives of “risk control” tag

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Trading wisdom and strategies

  
  Education
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Trading System – According to Howard Abell: The trading system gives the trader the ability to control his or her emotional states rather than allowing them to control him. A system is a disciplined method for organizing dynamic, ever-changing market phenomena.

Risk Control – According to Paul Tudor Jones: If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.

Psychological Makeup – According to Leo Melamed: You learn to distinguish the good traders from the bad, the successful techniques from the unsuccessful, and the good habits from the faulty. You also learn to distinguish the lover from the fighter, the winners from the losers, the serious from the frivolous, the cerebral from the superficial, and the friend from the foe. But above all, you learn that the psychological makeup of the trader is the single most critical element of success.

The Easy Middle – According to Randy McKay: The beginning of a price move is usually hard to trade because you are not sure whether you are right about the direction of the trend. The end is hard because people start taking profits and the market gets very choppy. The middle of the move is what I call the easy part.

Cut Back Trading Size When Losing – According to Bill Lipschutz: When you are in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading helps achieve that goal.

Have A Predetermined Stop – According to Bruce Kovner: Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I am getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis.

Accept the Risk – According to Mark Douglas: To whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.

Making Mistakes Is Part of Business – According to Bruce Kovner: Michael Marcus [another top trader] taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgement, being wrong, making your next best judgement, being wrong, making your third best judgement, and then doubling your money.

Willingness to Make Mistakes

  
  Education
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“[Michael Marcus] also taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. [He] taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.”

– Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards

Bruce Kovner, now retired, is one of the all-time trading greats.

His observation is strikingly similar to the Soros observation (paraphrase): “It doesn’t matter how often you are right or wrong — what matters is how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong.”

In many ways trading is remarkably different from any other profession. Imagine if doctors, lawyers, or company executives were encouraged to “make mistakes” on a regular basis. (They do make mistakes of course. They just can’t admit them, let alone be open about them.) (more…)

Willingness to Make Mistakes

  
  Education
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“[Michael Marcus] also taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. [He] taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.”

– Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards

Bruce Kovner, now retired, is one of the all-time trading greats.

His observation is strikingly similar to the Soros observation (paraphrase): “It doesn’t matter how often you are right or wrong — what matters is how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong.”

In many ways trading is remarkably different from any other profession. Imagine if doctors, lawyers, or company executives were encouraged to “make mistakes” on a regular basis. (They do make mistakes of course. They just can’t admit them, let alone be open about them.) (more…)

Count down 3, 2, 1 to develop as a trader

  
  Education
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Count down 3, 2, 1 to be a trader!

3) Focus on the psychology and mental skills that are necessary to succeed in the market.  Learn to read the market charts in terms of the pscychology of the other traders.

2) Learn about risk control in depth.  What this really means, options available to you, how you can marry it up with your financial objectives in the market place etc.

1) Only when you have the above dialled in should you investigate ways of putting trades on in the most advantageous positions to generate the returns you are looking for.

I think if people were to count down 3, 2, 1 there would be many more successful traders. 

Try to Learn these things

  
Education, Life
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  1. Ancient Chinese philosophers realized that with great danger often comes great opportunity. This nexus is further reinforced by the fact that the Chinese character representing both danger and opportunity is the same. Remember that only those who possess and use the necessary skills to survive the period of great danger are in position to profit from great opportunity. Risk control is paramount.
  2. The extrinsic (time) component of the option premium goes to zero at options expiration. Always.
  3. Although statisticians would argue, the probability of occurrence of an extremely unlikely event is much greater if you “bet the farm” on the event not occurring. Never forget that black swans do exist.
  4. The human brain is not inherently logical. It evolved for survival and is prone to make erroneous assumptions and draw incorrect associations. To guard against these potentially costly errors, continuously challenge your assumptions.
  5. Absence of proof does not constitute proof of absence.
  6. Thinly traded options are usually characterized by egregious B/A spreads. You may be able to negotiate acceptable spreads to enter the trade. You will not be able to do so if you need to exit. It is usually better to stay away from these snares.
  7. Option orders executed as spreads always receive better fills than individually placed orders.
  8. Failure to consider current IV in an historic framework for the particular underlying will usually cost money.
  9. Failure to follow predicted changes in volatility prior to a known event (e.g. earnings) indicates there is some factor of which you know not. When discovered, it usually impacts your position negatively.
  10. Failure to use and understand option modeling and option modeling software puts you at a significant competitive disadvantage to other participants in the options market. The only thing more expensive than having appropriate tools is not having them.
  11. It is stunningly easy to “roll more than you can smoke”. It is usually disastrous to attempt to smoke all you rolled if you find yourself in these circumstances. This is another reason to model trades and crisply define risk.
  12. If you create multi-legged option beasts by manually entering the orders as opposed to entering from a graphical presentation, you will enter positions incorrectly and end up “upside down” and commit other similar errors more often than you thought possible. You must monitor the magnitude of extrinsic value when short options are ITM. Failure to do that and considering your trade plan in light of these developments, will result in unanticipated early assignment at the most inopportune times. Option positions can be easily adjusted to improve their structure only before they enter the ICU.
  13. Forgetting to honor time stops when holding certain varieties of option beasts can be as costly as forgetting price and/or P/L stops.
  14. Good traders know what they know; great traders also know what they don’t know. (more…)

Good Habits

  
  Education
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When a new trader comes to me for advice, quite often they have suffered initial losses from their trading activities (sometimes heavy ones) and have not really had a focussed overall trading plan set out, or if they have, they’ve not followed it.

Even if you start trading with limited capital, it is important that you start ingraining good habits as early as you can. Principal amongst these is ensuring that you do not trade too large positions relative to your overall equity. 

Depending on your chosen method of trading, transaction costs can also eat into a small account, and the trading vehicle you choose to use should be carefully considered.

However, it is a well known maxim that the vast majority of new traders blow up their accounts within 6 months. This is not necessarily as a result of their method of choosing their entries and exits (although that undoubtedly helps) but more as a result of risking way too much on each trade, or in extreme cases having a complete disregard for risk.

Trading is a marathon not a sprint, and to stay in the game you need to exhibit strong risk control right from the off. The sooner you can ingrain that in your method and your mind, the better. Even the best did not necessarily get a grip on risk control early in their careers – in Market Wizards Paul Tudor Jones talks about losing 70% of his equity on a single trade relatively early in his career. It was only after that experience did he go away and implement rigorous risk control.

From having risk under control, unemotional trading decisions can be taken, improving your mindset and allowing you to follow your system with no risk of self-sabotage. Allied to a proven method for selecting entry and exit points, you will be well on the journey to trading success.

Thought from Peter Brandt

  
  Education
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“The irony is that in real time, I never fully feel like I am trading successfully because I am always aiming for performance that is higher than I am attaining. I am generally my own worst critic and constantly set the bar higher than my last jump. The result is that it is difficult for me to crow about the “successes” of my trading career.

But, to the degree I have been consistently successful through the years, I believe it is due to three factors. First, I am obsessed with risk management. I spend more time and mental energy focusing on risk control protocols than on anything else. Managing losses and losing periods is my number one priority. If I can just tread water during the inevitable tough periods, sooner or later I will find myself caught in a favorable tide.

Second, my trading approach is overly simple by design. The result is that I know with as much certainty as is possible with a discretionary approach when there is a trade entry in my program. It does not mean that the trade will be profitable – only that the trade is there.

Third, I have tried to engage market speculation systematically, breaking down the process of trading into every conceivable component. What flows from this is an understanding of what components of trading are controllable and measurable and what components are uncontrollable. By the way, whether the next trade or series of trades will be profitable is not a controllable factor. Once a trader learns this — it is then possible to remove ego from the equation.” – Peter Brandt

The Wisdom of the Legendary Paul Tudor Jones

  
  Education
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At 56, Paul Tudor Jonesis a  self made billionaire with a net worth of 3.3 billion and is ranked as the 336th richest  person in the world, he  knows exactly how to trade the biggest money for the biggest returns. One of Jones’ earliest and major successes was anticipating and trading through Black Monday in 1987, tripling his money during the event due to large short positions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (-22.61%) on that day. While the majority of others lost more than they ever had in their lifetime, Jone’s was on the other side of their trade making a fortune. That is the sign of a truly great trader making money at the tipping points that most others miss.  Paul Tudor Jones has returned double digit annual returns to his investors for decades. He is one of the greatest traders to have ever lived, we need to sit up and listen closely to his advice, it is priceless.

Risk Management

“Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt.”

“At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.”

Trader Psychology

“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”

“Losers average losers.”

“Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked.”

Method

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”

“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.”

“The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s?”
“The whole world is simply nothing more than a flow chart for capital.”
That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?’

Trading Wisdom – Paul Tudor Jones

  
  Education
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Paul Tudor Jones
Turned $1.5 million into $300 million in five years
“That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, “Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?”
I had to learn discipline and money management. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading. I spend my day trying to make myself as happy and relaxed as I can be.
If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Risk control is the most important thing in trading. I keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades. (more…)

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