Archives of “Right-wing populism in the United States” tag

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Trump on Iran says he is going to sit back and wait

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump on Iran

  • Trump says he is going to sit back and wait, we’ll see what happens
  • He says it’s getting harder for him to make a deal with Iran, says it could go either way very easily
Obviously they’re not in a rush to war but that doesn’t mean they’re not putting some pieces in place. You don’t pre-announce any attack.
Separately:
  • Working on trade deals with Chinese President Xi

Who Is Winning The Trade War?

  
  Analysis
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China on Wednesday urged the Trump administration to “make up its mind” about reaching a trade deal with Beijing, warning that additional tariffs could send negotiations further off track. — South China Morning Post, July 17

We state emphatically,

Nobody Wins In A Trade War

We’re not sure how to even keep score in a trade war.  The relative performance of stock markets?  Economies?

Trade Deficit

President Trump likes to look at the bilateral trade deficit.   However, during his tenure, the cumulative trade deficit with China has increased by almost $100 billion, 8 percent higher relative to the prior 28 months before he took office.

 

China Trade War (more…)

US-China trade negotiations at ‘standstill’ as US weighs Huawei

  
  Analysis
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Headlines crossing

Progress has stalled as Trump’s administration tries to figure out how to meet the agreement to allow some US firms to sell products to Huawei.
This thing sounds like it’s going to fall apart before it even gets going. Stocks finished on the lows.

France’s plan to tax tech companies could lead to the US imposing new tariffs on the country

  
  Analysis
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U.S. President Donald Trump has asked for an investigation into France’s planned tax on technology companies

Reuters reports, citing an unnamed source:
  • could potentially lead to the United States imposing new tariffs or other trade restrictions
  • US Trade Representative Lighthizer to set up the investigation
  • Questioning if France’s digital-tax plan would hurt US technology companies
  • A Section 301 investigation, will assess if France’s levy poses an unfair trade practice
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Previous S 301 investigations have covered Chinese trade practices and European Union subsidies on large commercial aircraft

Trump – Iran is playing with fire. China trade talks are already underway.

  
Analysis, Politics
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President Trump with some remarks crossing

  • Iran is playing with fire.
  • China trade talks are already underway over phone.
  • expects President Xi will move on some of the issues that are in dispute
(pro tip – Xi will not)
President Trump with some remarks crossing

Trump, China & the Fed

  
  Analysis
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I think it’s entirely possible we leave Osaka with a mild escalation -something like expanded 10% tariffs – enough to scare both China & the Fed into more stimulus & a 50bps cut. Then walk it back in 2020 with a juiced economy. Same playbook as Iran/SA

Trump relents on tariffs, Huawei as US-China trade talks set for a revival

  
  Analysis
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What to look out for when markets open next week?

Trump

Trump and Xi once again managed to use their affinity to help strike a compromise in getting trade talks back under way earlier today.

Of note, Trump said that the US will not be levying new tariffs against China while also allowing for Huawei to purchase equipment from US companies – saying that he and Xi have agred to leave the “complicated” Huawei issue until the end of what appears to be an open-ended trade truce between the two countries.

Although Trump relented on his stance, he didn’t give any firm commitment on whether or not Huawei will be pulled from the entity list and says that the Commerce Department will meet in the coming days to review what products can be sold to Huawei.
I reckon the very notion of trade talks being revived is likely to give markets a bit of a relief on Monday even though much of this has already been anticipated. The key now will be to measure whether or not this optimism can last the course as negotiations are set to continue in the coming weeks/months.
Besides that, just be on the look out for any official statement release by both the US and Chinese camps when markets open next week. So far, China has said that they hope that Trump will deliver on the Huawei issue but didn’t really elaborate on any details pertaining to what other details both sides will be discussing in future negotiations.
As for any official statements, the interpretation of the language will be key. There’s no doubt China will be the more cautious and less upbeat of the two in building up market optimism after the recent setback in trade talks in May but we’ll see.
For now, I reckon the ‘back on track’ sentiment should lend risk assets a tailwind in the opening sessions next week with the moves likely to be more evident among equities and gold. As for FX, a risk-on gap at the open is very much in the offing given all the anticipation last week and the dollar may also see some gains as traders will surely now further question odds of a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed next month.

But it won’t be too long before traders and investors start asking themselves whether or not the concessions made here can lead towards a deal in the bigger picture.

In my view, the more structural issues remain a difficult gap to bridge for both countries unless they’re willing to move their red lines. We’ll see if that changes but I highly doubt a trade deal is imminent despite talks being revived. As such, it’ll only be a matter of time before markets – and any optimism from today – have to deal with that reality as well.

Beijing says US will not impose new tariffs on China exports

  
  Analysis
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The U.S. will not levy new tariffs on Chinese exports, Chinese state media said after bilateral talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka.

The world’s two biggest economies have agreed to restart trade talks, Xinhua news said, adding that the two sides will have discussions on “specific” issues.

The two leaders met for the first time in nearly seven months on Saturday, again on the sidelines of a global meeting, in an attempt to turn the heat down on a boiling trade war.

Trump is angry at the trade imbalance between the two countries, and has imposed rounds of tariffs on goods the U.S. imports from China. China retaliated by raising tariffs.

As the bilateral meeting began, Xi said he is prepared to exchange his thoughts and that he hopes to set the direction of China-U.S. relations “based on coordination, cooperation and stability.”

He added, “cooperation and dialogue are better than friction and confrontation.”

Trump responded by saying, “It would be historic if we can do a fair trade deal.”

“This could be a very productive meeting,” he said. (more…)

The chaps at China’s Global Times say US growth claims are fake news

  
Analysis, Politics
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if these guys are setting the tone for the talks between Xi and Trump … well Monday early markets could be very interesting indeed!

Global Times (never shy about a bit or US prodding):
  • The claims that US growth will accelerate are false. 
  • Instead growth in 2019 will fall. 
  • And growth in 2020 will be even lower than in 2019 – a serious issue for Trump as 2020 is an election year
They add in the pic:
If these guys are setting the tone for the talks between Xi and Trump … well Monday early markets could be very interesting indeed! 
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