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North Korea warns that Kim’s thoughts on Trump can change

North Korea warns Trump on year-end deadline

North Korea US

In case you missed the news from earlier today, North Korea has set a year-end deadline for the US to change its policies or Kim Jong Un may “embark on a new path” as denuclearisation talks between the two countries appear to have broken down.

If you’ve been following our headlines over the past few months, it is clear that the two countries aren’t getting along well with how frequent North Korea has been conducting missile launches and tests during the period.
As things stand, they want the US to lift more sanctions before committing to any more “denuclearisation” projects but the US wants it to be the other way around. Hence, we have reached a bit of an impasse at the moment.
If anything else, keep an eye on this issue here as it could present a wild card risk for markets in 2020 – alongside the host of other issues.

Trump: US in final throes of reaching a trade deal with China

Positive comments

Reuters is carrying comments from Trump:
  • Trump says in final throes on reaching trade deal with CHina
  • Trump says US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong
This is a slightly different language. It’s the first time in a few days the President has been so optimistic.
I’m reminded that the previous line was that they were in the ‘short strokes’. The modest market reaction suggests that this kind of talk isn’t enough alone to boost sentiment.

Pres Trump: We will be doing a major, middle income tax cut

Trump speaking on healthcare plan

  • signed order and price transparency in healthcare
  • order will force companies to compete
  • rule will compel hospitals to publish prices
  • consumer will have lots of choices regard to doctors hospital and price
  • insurance firms will need to show treatment costs
in addition to his healthcare comments, Pres. Trump has also said:
  • we will be doing a major, middle income tax cut
  • tax-cut will be subject to Republicans winning house

Trump invites southeast Asian leaders to US for special summit

Trump makes a move

The geographical battleground of the trade war is in southeast Asia.
It’s an area where China is trying to expand and solidify ties while the US is trying to beat back Beijing. There’s a military component as well as China tries to dominate the South China Sea.
This weekend, Trump skipped the ASEAN summit, which is attempting to finalize the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — a massive trade deal.
Trump’s move to invite Southeast Asian leaders will undoubtedly raise eyebrows in Beijing and further convince leaders there that the Phase One deal will probably only be a ceasefire and that the US is planning to curb China’s growth and influence.

Trump will make a statement on Syria conflict at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)

Trump comments to come later

Trump has been tweeting for the past hour with the usual stuff on impeachment and whatever else Fox Business is talking about.
Big success on the Turkey/Syria Border. Safe Zone created! Ceasefire has held and combat missions have ended. Kurds are safe and have worked very nicely with us. Captured ISIS prisoners secured. I will be making a statement at 11:00 A.M. from the White House. Thank you!
Expect the statement to be along those lines but there is always a high risk of Trump going off-script.

China issued 10m tonnes quota for US soybeans purchases – report

It’s not the 40-50m tonnes Trump talked about but it’s a start

The idea was never to buy all the soybeans at once, but over the course of a year. China nees the food.
Reuters reports that Chinese officials gave tariff-free quotas to soybean buyers for up to 10m tonnes.
It’s a sign of concrete progress and good faith in the trade war but it could all fall apart very quickly.

Trump: If China doesn’t do what US wants, US has lots of options

Trump on China trade talks

  • Chinese delegation coming next week for trade talks
  • Says he would like Ukraine to investigate the Bidens
  • North Korea wants to talk and US will be talking

The China comments are tame, he isn’t promising anything. That’s a bit worrisome.

Trump blames the stock market decline on ‘impeachment nonsense’

Trump turns his eye away from the Fed

He’s not entirely wrong, the market didn’t like the impeachment headlines when they first hit. But I’d argue that’s because impeachment is more likely to make him erratic and reactionary, if not dangerous.
As for what’s caused the latest leg of US stock market selling, allow me to draw some conclusions:
Trump turns his eye away from the Fed
Here’s his tweet:
All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
However I think in the big picture, you’re going to have a US election in 13 months. How do you have any confidence in stocks on a Warren vs Trump election? That’s a binary outcome.
If the impeachment talk had any bearing, it was because it hurt Biden as much as Trump and that solidified Warren’s lead. She went from +200K in betting odds on Sept 12 to +110 now.

Trump: Hopes for allowing China into WTO have failed

Trump on China at the UN

Trump on China at the UN
  • China hasn’t adopted promised reforms
  • China uses heavy state subsidies, steals IP
  • Cites company stealing Micron’s products in China
  • WTO needs drastic change
  • World’s second-largest economy shouldn’t be allowed to call itself a developing country
  • The days of globalism are over
  • Says he’s placed tariffs on over $500B of Chinese goods
  • Hopefully we can find a deal that’s good for both countries, but I will not accept a bad deal
  • Says carefully watching situation in Hong Kong
  • Expects China to honor treaty on Hong Kong

If you’re China and listening to that, do you really think Trump wants to make a long-term deal?

Pres. Trump: China agricultural purchases is not enough

President Trump speaking at a press conference with Australia’s prime minister

  • China agricultural purchases is not enough
  • looking for complete deal with China
  • he does not need a trade yield before the 2020 election
  • China is being affected very badly US economy is very strong
  • China is eating the tariffs
  • Trump has an amazing relationship with Xi, but is having a little spat
  • signing USMCA is very important for the country
  • Australia will be a big beneficiary of China deal
  • expects sanctions to work on Iran
  • military option would work but should never have to use it
  • Iran has a lot of self-made problems