Archives of “Rational expectations” tag

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Has the dollar lost its grip on the iron throne?

  
  Analysis
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What is next for the dollar?

FXTM
If one could describe the Dollar’s performance over the past few months in one word, the best fit would be vulnerable.

The once king of the FX space has weakened considerably in Q3, depreciating against every single G10, most Asian and emerging market currencies. This is despite its safe-haven status and the global reserve currency title. For those who are wondering why the Greenback remains depressed and unable to shake away the blues despite the general uncertainty, the first clues can be found in the US economy. (more…)

Is The Market Always Right?

  
  Education
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George Soros likes to joke that market has predicted seven of the past two recessions. And he is right. Since the market is forward looking, it will sometimes discount fundamentals that will never become a reality.

Prices reflect people’s expectations about the future, mostly about the near-term future. To say that the market is always right means to assume that people’s expectations about the future always come true. We all know that this is not the case. No one has a crystal ball. People are often wrong.

Is the market always right?

No, but this does not stop people who follow price trends to make a lot of money. The market could remain “wrong” (irrational) for a very long period of time and even become “wronger”. (more…)

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