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My Goal

Technical analysis is often misunderstood as being the holy grail to making profits. What is often overlooked is its ability to warn you of impending price moves and its ability to help avoid huge losses. Applying technical analysis and using stop losses are the only way to protect your financial and mental capital. If you want to play the markets you need to stay in the game. My goal as a trader is still the same:

  • To continue to learn about the markets and price movements
  • To learn from my mistakes in order to avoid repeating them
  • To continually increase discipline
  • To be emotionally detached.

Fear in the Markets

I think there is something to be said for the idea fear-based arguments standing out in people’s minds. Highly charged, emotionally relevant information is certainly processed differently from normal information, which is why advertisers will show very happy people drinking Coke, or people having car wrecks relying on their insurers. The correlations of investor margin debt and price movements of the markets might be one way to quantify how fear impacts speculative behavior …

That having been said, I do notice a kind of cultishness to the permabears… it is an ingrained belief that organizes their thinking about markets, the future, etc. The motivation, I suspect, is a desire to belong to a special group that will be spared the oncoming calamity.

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