Archives of “Presidency of Donald Trump” tag

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North Korea tests missiles a month ahead of deadline for US talks

  
  Analysis
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Breaking a month-long lull in missile tests, North Korea fired two short range missiles into the sea off its east coast on Thursday in what appeared to be the latest try out of its new multiple rocket launchers, South Korea’s military said.

The test-firing came as the clock ticks down on the year-end deadline that Pyongyang had given the United States to restart stalled denuclearisation talks.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the North fired the two missiles into the sea from launchers in the eastern coastal town of Yonpo at around 5 p.m. (0800 GMT).

The rockets travelled up to 380 kilometres (236 miles) and reached an altitude of 97 km (60 miles), the JCS said.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the launch was a threat to not only Japan but the region and beyond, though his defence ministry said the projectile did not enter Japanese airspace or its Exclusive Economic Zone.

“We will remain in close contact with the United States, South Korea and the international community to monitor the situation,” Abe told reporters. (more…)

Global stock market rally has further to run in 2020 – Reuters poll

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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But much depends on the US-China trade war still

Poll

The bias has turned more favourable in the most recent poll with a slim majority of respondents (53/102) viewing that risks to the outlook are now skewed more to the upside.

In comparison, just three months ago, a clear majority of respondents (69/97) viewed that risks to the outlook were skewed more to the downside instead.
A lot of this of course owes to the more optimistic US-China trade rhetoric, as both countries look to move closer towards a trade truce by the end of this year.
Among those who answered an additional question in the poll, 50 respondents said the bull run in the stock market will end within a year with 40 respondents saying that it would within the next two years.
That shows that sentiment is leaning more towards the bull run still going strong although I reckon its strength may not be as what we are seeing this year.
I mean with stretched valuations, flagging global growth and more political uncertainty i.e. US elections all at play next year, the S&P 500 may find it tough to post another 25% year like this one and so will its peers.

The verbatim of Trump’s latest comments is another sign the deal is falling apart

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump spoke in a Q&A at Apple headquarters

Trump at Apple
Keep in mind that Trump said earlier in his comments that they were considering exempting Apple from tariffs. To me, that alone says he is already a couple steps along in the process of adding tariffs, or at least strongly considering it.
The main headlines have been reported already but the last part is where the context matters.
Reporter: Will there be a trade deal in place before the end of the year?
Trump: So, I can tell you this: China would much rather make a trade deal than me?
Reporter: Then why haven’t they?
Trump: Because I haven’t wanted to do it yet.
Reporter: Why haven’t you wanted to do it.
Trump: Because I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want
Reporter: I spoke earlier today with Mr Cook and he said another round of tariffs would be bad for business, it would be bad for the United States (interrupted by Trump)
Trump: You know, here’s what I would say. What do you know? I put in tariffs and everyone said ‘Oh geez, you’re taking in hundreds of billions of dollars’ and everyone said ‘oh that’s going to be bad for the economy’. Well, as you just heard from Tim Cook, we have the strongest economy by far in the world and we’re taking in billions and billions. So we’ll see what happens.

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Pres Trump: We will be doing a major, middle income tax cut

  
  Analysis
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Trump speaking on healthcare plan

  • signed order and price transparency in healthcare
  • order will force companies to compete
  • rule will compel hospitals to publish prices
  • consumer will have lots of choices regard to doctors hospital and price
  • insurance firms will need to show treatment costs
in addition to his healthcare comments, Pres. Trump has also said:
  • we will be doing a major, middle income tax cut
  • tax-cut will be subject to Republicans winning house

The US/China deal can be delayed until December: Senior Trump administration official

  
  Analysis
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Negative moves in stocks… Yields move lower… Gold moves higher

  • Trump/Xi meeting to sign US–China trade deal could be delayed until December as discussions continue over terms and venue
  • Still possible US – China trade deal pack will not be reached, but deal more likely than not
  • Europe a likely venue for the Trump-Xi meeting with Switzerland and Sweden among sites under consideration. Iowa is not a likely
  • Push for more tariffs rollbacks not seen derailing progress toward trade deal
  • Believes China sees quick trade deal as best chance for favorable terms, given Trump’s electoral and impeachment pressures
The stocks have moved to a new session lows (modest declines are picking up steam a bit).
  • S&P index fell to a low of 3067.26. We currently trade at 3069.5
  • NASDAQ fell to a low of 8387.61. We currently trade at 8389.32
  • Dow fell to 27420.17 with the price currently at 27435
US yields moved lower as well with the 10 year at 1.824%, -3.5 basis points.
Gold prices have moved higher with spot gold up $9 or 0.61% at $1493 currently.
WTI crude oil futures have moved lower they trading near session lows at $56.33 (currently at $56.42).
The USDJPY has moved to a new session low at 108.83. The 200 hour moving average comes in at 108.659.  There is a risk off in risk pairs like USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

China issued 10m tonnes quota for US soybeans purchases – report

  
  Analysis
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It’s not the 40-50m tonnes Trump talked about but it’s a start

The idea was never to buy all the soybeans at once, but over the course of a year. China nees the food.
Reuters reports that Chinese officials gave tariff-free quotas to soybean buyers for up to 10m tonnes.
It’s a sign of concrete progress and good faith in the trade war but it could all fall apart very quickly.

Tariffs being imposed Dec.15 if no China trade deal, says Mnuchin

  
  Analysis
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday that an additional round of tariffs on Chinese imports will likely be imposed if a trade deal with China has not been reached by then, but added that he expected the agreement to go through.

“I have every expectation – if there’s not a deal, those tariffs would go in place – but I expect we’ll have a deal,” he said in an interview with CNBC, when asked about a round of tariffs scheduled for Dec. 15.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that China and the United States had reached the first phase of a trade deal that covered agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections, and would ease the reciprocal trade restrictions that the world’s two largest economies have been imposing for 15 months.

But officials on both sides have said more work is needed to finalize the accord, and Trump acknowledged the agreement could still collapse. U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer said on Friday that Trump had not made a decision about the December tariffs.

Mnuchin said more trade negotiations at various levels would take place over the coming weeks, including a phone call between himself, Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, and talks between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Asked about a dispute between China and the U.S. National Basketball Association stemming from a tweet by Houston Rockets manager Daryl Morey expressing support for pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, Mnuchin said he hoped the two sides could come to a solution.

Trump: If China doesn’t do what US wants, US has lots of options

  
  Analysis
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Trump on China trade talks

  • Chinese delegation coming next week for trade talks
  • Says he would like Ukraine to investigate the Bidens
  • North Korea wants to talk and US will be talking

The China comments are tame, he isn’t promising anything. That’s a bit worrisome.

A look at the US-China trade war and its impact on markets

  
  Analysis
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The impact escalation will have

The impact escalation will haveThe focus of the market on the China-US trade war is acute due to China’s and the United States economic weight. In 2018 the US’s GDP was above $20 trillion and China’s GDP over $14 trillion, which makes them the world’s two largest economies by nominal GDP.

Furthermore, consider that when you add these two countries GDP together, they account for more than 40% of the world’s entire GDP. So, the first point to grasp is that the significance of a US-China trade war is really a global growth problem.

When you factor in the alliances and trade partners of both countries, the legitimate concern is that a China-US trade war spills over across the entire globe and slows down the entire world economy.

Trade between the US and China

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Trump impeachment drama muddles China deal timeline

  
  Analysis
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As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for high-level trade negotiations with China next month, a sharp turn of events has blurred the timeline of a deal.

On Tuesday, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shocked the nation when she announced an impeachment inquiry into Trump. Pelosi had resisted calls to start formal proceedings against the president during and after the Mueller investigation, but the latest allegations about Trump pressing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate former U.S. Vice President and Trump’s political rival Joe Biden’s family pushed her to act.

Trump on Wednesday sought to shift the focus away from the inquiry, praising the U.S. economy and an imminent trade deal with China.

“We have created the greatest economy in the history of our country, the greatest economy in the world…. Right now China is way behind us and they will never catch us if we have smart leadership,” Trump told reporters. “We have picked up trillions of dollars and they have lost trillions of dollars and they want to make a deal very badly. It could happen. It could happen sooner than you think.”

The comment came an hour after Trump released a transcription of his phone call with Zelensky from July 25. The president was under pressure from Democrats and some Republicans to make public the transcript after a whistleblower filed a complaint saying he pressured the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden’s son Hunter Biden as well as a Democratic National Committee computer server related to Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Trump said last week that China would like to see someone else win the 2020 presidential election, but they think he is going to win. He has warned Beijing that if the deal comes after the Nov. 3, 2020 election, trade talks will be on “far worse” terms.

U.S. President Donald Trump said a China trade deal could come “sooner than you think.”   © AP

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