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1+10 Rules for Critical Thinking

  1. All beliefs in whatever realm are theories at some level. (Stephen Schneider)
  2. Do not condemn the judgment of another because it differs from your own. You may both be wrong. (Dandemis)
  3. Read not to contradict and confute; nor to believe and take for granted; nor to find talk and discourse; but to weigh and consider. (Francis Bacon)
  4. Never fall in love with your hypothesis. (Peter Medawar)
  5. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts. (Arthur Conan Doyle)
  6. A theory should not attempt to explain all the facts, because some of the facts are wrong. (Francis Crick)
  7. The thing that doesn’t fit is the thing that is most interesting. (Richard Feynman)
  8. To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes even better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact. (Charles Darwin)
  9. It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. (Mark Twain)
  10. Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong. (Thomas Jefferson)
  11. All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second, it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident. (Arthur Schopenhauer)

AFFIRMING BETTER TRADING

“Any thought put into your mind and nourished regularly, will produce results in your life.” John Kehoe

An affirmation is a statement made in the present about the future as if it had already occurred in the past. Let me say it more simply. An affirmation is a simple statement about what you want to become true in your life. You state it in the present tense as if it were already true. You repeat your hopes and dreams. You declare the opposite of your fears. For example, the fear that you could lose all your money becomes: “I grow my capital through consistently applying my winning methods.”

Be careful to word the affirmation in the present tense. Statements made in the future stay in the future. “Next month I’ll turn my trading around.” stays out there in the future. Now is when you need to turn the trading around.

Affirmations can be repeated to yourself silently or aloud. You can incant them with feeling or whisper them to yourself. You can record them and play them, or write them and read them. A good time to assert them is just as you’re falling asleep or waking up, or any other time of the day. You can say them while you drive or wait in a bank line or as you watch the market or manage a trade. (more…)

Never Ever Follow The Villager Into Equities

It’s a moot point: Is the Buffalo leading the Villager or is the Villager Following The Buffalo? The Chinese are contemplating the same.

Nobody has seen the village chief.

Just months ago, his courtyard home at the edge of the orchard was a makeshift trading floor where local farmers gathered to share tips and track the Shanghai Composite. Now, the gates are closed, a security camera stands watch, and nobody wants to talk about the stock-trading local party secretary.

“Out for the whole day,” ventured a neighbor.

“Who?” said another.

“Maybe he flew away in a plane,” joked a third. The country was gripped by stock fever, a frenzy of borrowing and buying that saw Chinese markets soar to historic heights, drawing in tens of millions of first-time investors, including dozens of people in this northern Chinese village.

The rally was bolstered by rah-rah editorials in the state-controlled press. Invoking President Xi Jinping’s vision for a powerful and prosperous China, the People’s Daily called rising stock prices “carriers of the China dream.” When the benchmark index hit 4000 points, an editorial in the same party flagship promised it was “just the beginning” of the bull run.

(more…)

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