Archives of “Political philosophy” tag

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China press warn of the danger of Trump administration downplaying the coronavirus

  
  Analysis
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China’s Global Times with the piece. GT is not the most, err, independent of media but given the Chinese experience with the dangers of COVID-19 they do have a point:

  • coronavirus continues to spread rapidly across the US
  • officials including President Donald Trump and some in the public still seek to downplay the risk of the deadly virus
  • an apparent bid to avoid disruptions to economic activities by arguing the common flu is more fatal than COVID-19
  • raises questions about whether the epidemic can be contained effectively
  • irresponsible for public health security

OECD cuts 2020 global economic forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% previously

  
Analysis, Economy
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OECD warns that the global economy may shrink in Q1 2020

This follows their November forecast here previously. Notably, they have slashed China’s growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.7% previously. Meanwhile, in the US they forecast a 1.9% growth for the year – slightly lower by 2.0% previously.

As for the euro area, OECD sees growth of 0.8% this year, down from 1.1% previously. They note that the forecasts are currently based on the coronavirus epidemic peaking this quarter and says Japan and Europe risks a recession in their downside scenario.

AUD/USD on 0.65 big figure, first time in a decade

  
Analysis, Forex
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Australia is closely interlinked with China’s economy, and thus getting hit by the fallout of the outbreak

AUD/USD under 0.66 first time since 2009 with the news worsening on the coronavirus today, cases accelerating in South Korea. A freer media in South Korea reporting on cases is further cementing doubts about the veracity of the data on the virus impact out of China.
NZD taking a hit also
ps.  This from Goldman Sachs overnight:
  • “The number of ‘missing work days’ in China will be roughly equivalent to the entire US workforce taking an unplanned break for two months.”

Moody’s on the phase 1 US-China deal – will not resolve core differences

  
  Analysis
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Moody’s downbeat not only on the trade deal …

  • says outlook for APAC corporates remains negative in 2020 amid slowing global growth and trade policy uncertainty
  • “while positive, the US-China trade agreement will not resolve core differences, dampening business sentiment globally”
  • global economic growth will remain lacklustre, with growth in the US and China decelerating to 1.7% and 5.8% respectively in 2020
  • expects major central banks, including US Fed ECB, & BOJ will maintain accommodative monetary policies

Dunno, at least until the November US election we can expect US-China differences to be swept under the carpet? Or, maybe not?

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APAC is Asia-Pacific in case you are wondering.

China Stunner: Real GDP Is Now A Negative -1.1%, Evercore ISI Calculates

  
Analysis, Education
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With Chinese data now an official farce even among Wall Street economists, tenured academics, and all others whose job obligation it is to accept and never question the lies they are fed, the biggest question over the past year has been just what is China’s real, and rapidly slowing, GDP – which alongside the Fed, is the primary catalyst of the global risk shakeout experienced in recent weeks.

One thing that everyone knows and can agree on, is that it is not the official 7% number, or whatever goalseeked fabrication the communist party tries to push to a world that has realized China can’t even manipulate its stock market higher, let alone its economy.

But what is it? Over the past few months we have shown various unpleasant estimates, the lowest of which was 1.6% back in April.

Today we got the worst one yet, courtesy of Evercore ISI, which using its own GDP equivalent index – the Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) – gets a vastly different result from the official one, namely Chinese growth of -1.1% annually. Or rather, contraction.

To wit, from Evercore: 

Our proprietary Synthetic Growth Index (SG!) fell 1.1% mim in July, and was also down 1.1% y/y. No wonderglobal commodities are so weak. The most recent 18 months have been much weakerthan the 2011-13 period. Even if we adjust our SG I upward (for too-little representation of Services — lack of data), we believe actual economic growth in China is far below the official 7.0% yly. And, it is not improving, Most worrisome to us; the ‘equipment’ portion of Plant & Equipment spending is very weak, a bad sign for any company or country. Expect more monetary and fiscal steps to lift growth.

And here is why the world is in big trouble.

Words of Wisdom For Traders

  
  Education
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“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.” ~ Jesse LivermoreTHINKINGFUTURE

“Wealth and rank are what people desire, but unless they are obtained in the right way they may not be possessed.” ~ Confucius 

“Man has the power to act as his own destroyer—and that is the way he has acted through most of his history.” ~ Ayn Rand 

“It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

“Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly.” ~ Chinese Proverb

“The most exquisite paradox… as soon as you give it all up, you can have it all. As long as you want power, you can’t have it. The minute you don’t want power, you’ll have more than you ever dreamed possible.” ~ Ram Dass 

“If thou wilt make a man happy, add not unto his riches but take away from his desires.” ~ Epicurus (more…)

Manifesto For 2015

  
Analysis, Education
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Manifesto For 2015
 
Government has no right to confer economic benefit.
The benevolence of individuals, not government, creates a just community.
Rich and poor share responsibility to build society.
The greatest philosophy of governance is the balance of executive, legislative and judicial authority.
Civility is a worthy goal.
Government is incompetent in most areas in which it is currently active.
Theocracy kills.
Our challenges are planetary.
Humans are lonely without animals.
Glorifying thugs is civil suicide.
Union members are not the only people who work. 
Be circumspect in speech, for sowing wind reaps the whirlwind.
Propaganda attacks reason.
Wealth is a great good.
Benevolence is a great good.
Achievement is a great good.
The family is a great good.
Friendship is a great good.

5 Essential Qualities of the Speculator

  
  Education
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1. Self-Reliance. A man must think for himself,must follow his own convictions. George MacDonald says: “A man cannot have another man’s ideas any more than he can  another man’s soul or another man’s body.” Self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.

2. Judgment. That equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties one to the other,which is called good judgment, is an essential to the speculator.
 
3. Courage. That is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. In speculation there is value in Mirabeau’s dictum: “Be bold, still be bold; always be bold.”
 
4. Prudence. The power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. There should be a balance of these two, Prudence and Courage;Prudence in contemplation, Courage in execution.
Lord Bacon says: “In meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution one, unless very formidable.”
Connected with these qualities,properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz:promptness. The mind convinced, the act should follow. In the words of Macbeth; “Henceforth the very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” Think, act, promptly.
 
5. Pliability. The ability to change an opinion,the power of revision. “He who observes,”says Emerson, “and observes again, is always formidable.”
The qualifications named are necessary to the makeup of a speculator, but they must be in well-balanced combination. A deficiency or an overplus of one quality will destroy the effectiveness of all. The possession of such faculties, in a proper adjustment is, of course, uncommon. In speculation, as in life, few succeed,many fail.

What Is The Value Of Trading?

  
  Education
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It’s a question that arises for many traders. So many occupations derive their nobility from contributing to the welfare of others in direct ways. Where is the nobility in trading?
In my reply, echoing Ayn Rand, I challenged the notion that nobility is solely or primarily a function of assisting others. 
In mastering risk and uncertainty; in learning to pursue opportunity in effortful ways; in making ourselves better as decision makers; in becoming more disciplined actors; we improve ourselves as human beings. That carries over to many areas of life, so that we can become better business partners, spouses, parents, and friends. 
Indeed, this might be the most important distinction between trading well and trading poorly: When we trade well, we make ourselves stronger, better; we tap into the best within us. When we trade poorly, we succumb to our lowest common denominators.
The value of trading is the value of any competitive performance activity: in its mastery, we become just a bit closer to our ideals–and that ripples throughout our lives.

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