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OPEC+ close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting – report

So much for that hope

OPEC+ is close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting this month and will stick with March meeting dates, according to delegates cited by Bloomberg. They say the Saudis may still push for hte Feb meeting.
Oil has climbed this week for the first time since Jan 3…at least for now. The March contract just expired.
So much for that hope

OPEC cuts Q1 oil demand growth estimate by 440k bpd on coronavirus outbreak

OPEC releases its latest report on the oil market

OPEC
  • 2020 oil demand growth outlook cut by 230k bpd to 0.99 mil bpd
  • Coronavirus outbreak adds to uncertainties for oil market this year
  • The situation needs continuous monitoring
  • To face oil surplus of 570k bpd in Q2
The downward revisions are not surprising as they don’t just see the virus having an impact on the oil market in Q1, but also for larger portions of the year.
This is in part why they are trying to push forward with the additional output cuts but so far we are still waiting on a response from Russia regarding the latest proposal.
The thing about Russia is that, they always play hard ball but eventually cave when it comes to OPEC+ executing new output cuts. However, that doesn’t mean they will necessarily contribute and the bulk of the responsibility will fall on Saudi Arabia instead.

OPEC+ said to be considering additional 500k bpd oil output cut due to virus impact

Reuters reports, citing two unnamed OPEC sources on the matter

The sources say that most OPEC members agree on the need to cut oil output further and that they are considering to have a meeting on 14-15 February now. Just one to keep in mind as such a move may provide some relief to oil prices in the near-term.

That said, once again it will be an issue on compliance to see how effective these cuts are. Oil is getting a bit of a pop on the headlines, with WTI crude now up 0.4% to $51.80.

How coronavirus will impact oil markets – OPEC considering production cuts

The terrible human toll continues to increase.

Taking a look at oil though, this via Platts (S&P Global Platts is an energy and commodities information house).
Latest (in brief):
  • forecasting a drop of 200,000 b/d in oil demand for the next two to three months, reflecting roughly 15% of the expected oil demand growth in 2020
  • If the coronavirus is as bad as the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, oil demand could fall by 700,000-800,000 b/d, reflecting more than half of the expected demand growth for 2020
  • OPEC members are considering deeper production cuts, or extending their existing deal, in response to a slump in oil prices, according to a source in the group.”The next two weeks are very critical for not only the oil market but the global economy,” the OPEC source said Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Bolding above is mine.
oil markets - OPEC said to be considering production cuts

OPEC’s Barkindo reportedly confirms next OPEC+ meeting to be held in March

RIA reports, citing remarks by OPEC secretary general Barkindo

Barkindo

It appears that Barkindo has shot down rumours of the OPEC+ meeting potentially being postponed to June, with the headlines also saying that none of the OPEC+ members had asked for a different time for the meeting.

In any case, it’s only the end of January now. Two months is an extremely long time in OPEC world so just be mindful that they could still easily change their minds on this.

Aramco’s IPO has lessons for Asia’s state-owned oil companies

Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled oil company, held a record-breaking initial public offering earlier in December, becoming the world’s most valuable listed company, ahead of Apple of the U.S.

The listing on the Riyadh stock market on Dec. 11 gave Aramco a market value of $1.877 trillion. The $25.6 billion raised was also a record, breaking the previous mark set in 2014 by China’s e-commerce leader, Alibaba Group Holding.

The IPO has set off speculation about how the stock flotation will affect other state-owned oil producers, especially in Asia.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast, Saudi Arabia will incur a fiscal deficit of 178.5 billion riyals ($47.57 billion) in 2019, staying in the red for the sixth consecutive year. The economy of the kingdom is greatly affected by the price of crude oil, which generates 70% of government revenue. As the world moves toward alternative forms of energy to combat climate change, the risks of relying heavily on oil will grow.

In 2016, Saudi Arabia adopted the Vision 2030 plan aimed at reducing its dependence on oil and creating a sustainable growth model. The listing of Aramco is key to the shift. (more…)

EIA lowers US 2020 crude production estimate to 13.18 mbpd from 13.29 mbpd prior

EIA lowers 2020 supply outlook after OPEC

  • Sees supply for 2020 at 102.29 mbpd vs 102.58 mbpd prior
  • Demand seen at 102.14 mbpd vs 102.27 mbpd prior
  • EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 29.3 million b/d in 2020, down by 0.5 million b/d from 2019
  • Latest report
The swing producer in the world is now shale. In this report, the EIA said it expects total US crude oil and petroleum net exports to average 570,000 bpd in 2020 but that’s down from 750,000 bpd in last month’s estimate.
They continue to see a rise of 0.9 mbpd in US production this year, that’s slower than the 1.3 mbpd rise this year but still above private forecasts, which have fallen to 0.6 mbpd (and lower).

OPEC+ said to reach agreement to reduce output target by 500k bpd

OPEC+ ministers are said to have agreed to the deal

The closed session meeting is still taking place but as ever the case, the decision is already being leaked out. In any case, the 500k bpd additional cut here is what has been anticipated over the past two days.

But all this does is just bring the target level closer to actual production levels seen throughout the whole of this year. Oil stays slightly pressured with Brent near lows just above $63 and WTI likewise just above $58.

Oil rallies to the highs of the week

WTI crude at the best levels since Friday

WTI crude at the best levels since Friday
There was a huge build in US oil supplies in data released today but the market has shaken it off. That’s a great sign for the bulls and it comes — in part — due to draws in products.
I think this could lead to some short-term upside but WTI needs to get above $56 to really make any headway.

Saudi Arabia floats change to Japan oil supply, sparks concern

Saudi Aramco has notified Japan’s top oil distributor about a potential change in shipments, stoking concerns about the kingdom’s ability to supply crude following attacks on its major refineries a week ago, Nikkei learned Saturday.

State-owned Aramco did not say why it wants to change the oil grade it supplies to JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy from light to heavy and medium, starting in October, JXTG officials said.

But the move indicates that the Saudi national oil company is having a hard time restoring its production as quickly as it has promised, despite repeated assurances that the company’s supply would be restored by the end of September.

Two of Aramco’s refineries were attacked in what is believed to be a drone and cruise missile strikes on Sept. 14. The attacks, which were claimed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, knocked out more than half the country’s oil production.

JXTG officials said they suspect that Aramco is taking more time than expected to repair its desulfurization facility, which is necessary to produce light-grade crude used in the production of gasoline and light gas oil.

Saudi Arabia accounted for almost 40% of Japanese oil imports in fiscal 2018. (more…)

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