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Analogy Between Markets and Gambling.

We attempt to apply Statistics to markets because we see an analogy between markets and gambling. You bet when the deck is rich; count the cards and you will know.

But what if the dealer of the markets:

1. Shuffles under the table or may not shuffle – you cannot know (without inside info)

2. Might be using more than one deck

3. Sometimes uses a deck which favors your opponents

4. Usually favors you but occasionally ruins you

5. Knows that you need the action and abuses this knowledge

6. Knows that you will exploit your knowledge of him to others, especially the weak, ignorant, and women

Inexorable Change

Since change is ubiquitous and permanent, we might as well become experts at adapting. We can get comfortable with change and look forward to its permutations and surprises. We can train ourselves to become adept at learning, unlearning, and relearning.

On the other hand, we don’t want to be whipsawed back and forth through too rapid repositioning. Nor do we want to keep switching methods and systems.  We need to find the balance between being steady and too speedy a responder. We need to comprehend that markets, like the ocean, have waves, tides, and tsunamis. Each needs to be handled differently.

We want to make change an acceptable reality rather than a soap opera. We need to be flexible and versatile. In being flexible we observe reality clearly and adjust our actions. In being versatile we utilize our trained ability to perceive and react effectively.

Volatility in markets can be embraced as opportunity or feared as danger. That shot of adrenaline you feel as you trade can be exciting or terrifying depending on how you view the situation. Interpretation is at the essential core of our trading.

A good way to start each trading day is by asking some questions: Where are the opportunities today? Are there any impending risks to my positions? Where might the opportunities or risks develop?

In the midst of unfolding turmoil or stagnant stalling, we need to distinguish between the fundamental and technical changes that are structural and therefore important and possibly extensive, and those that are merely headlines passing through and therefore only interesting and probably short lived.

In any event, accept whatever is happening, utilize your methods and guidelines, take a deep breath, and do your best. Remember, as it has been said, “All you can do is all you can do, and all you can do is enough.”

Stock Market Learning

1. Read the works of Soros, Jesse Livermore, William O’Neill, Warren Buffett and Nick Darvis.
2. Choose one and copy exactly what they do.
3. See each stage they go through to reach their conclusions and the actions they take and the inferrences they derive from the outcomes.
4. Pick stocks and plan out the course of action and all the permutations of what will happen in all price scenarios and put them into practice.
5. Memorise the details of the great coups and all the rules the masters have made in trading.
6. Keep all your trading a secret and don’t let others’ views interfere with your own. Keep your mind totally on the facts at hand and the details of what you see.
7. Before going to sleep look at the coups of other traders and of your own. Talk with the masters you are studying and meet them in your mind for interviews.
8. When the markets are not open or the market isn’t acting right for you then study past trades and memorise the actions you took and piece together the trade again looking for the lesson.
9. Be a better trader than your teachers and ask yourself how you can do better.
10. When you have practiced and ‘perfected’ position entry, move to exits, patterns, money management, probability theory, etc..
11. Look at situations and look at them as you would a trade. What would you do? Are there any interesting things to learn here that can be used in the markets?
12. See what’s happening rather than guess.
13. Play games like the one played in Liar’s Poker, where you invent scenarios and ask each other what you would do in that situation. E.g. nuclear explosion in Tokyo…
14. Be aware of views you are taking on a trade. Look at it always as if it’s the first time you have seen it and review an open trade every day as if you have just placed it.

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