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Greed and Fear Are Two Sides of the Same Coin

Merriam-Webster’s dictionary defines greed as simply “… a selfish and excessive desire for more of something (as money) than is needed.” Greed is often referenced as one of the main contributors to trading loss. Greed mangles the mind by distracting the trader from what matters most in the trade, which is quite frankly to protect your capital by prudent planning and following rules. It also distorts your judgment regarding high probability strategies and effective follow-through.  Additionally, it is the other side of the fear coin; that is, greed can arguably be thought of as a fear of not having “enough.”  Of course, having enough is a purely subjective notion, but for the reasonable person, someone who wants more, more, more as in getting every cent in a move, or wanting more than one’s share, is considered “greedy.”  Whether we’re talking about the fear of loss or the fear of not having enough, either way it is a very difficult emotional challenge to getting the trading results that you want.  Now, the question is what do you do about those bouts with fear/greed that takes your trading effectiveness south?  The important thing of course, is to manage your fear/greed one trade and one incident at a time.

Managing errant emotions is one of the most important trading skills that you can develop. Emotions are an inextricable part of being human and cannot be totally taken out of the trading equation.   However, you wouldn’t “want” to take emotions out of your trading even if you could. Yes, negative emotions throw a monkey wrench into your process; for instance, anxiety, fear, greed, guilt, self-doubt, impatience, apathy, to name a few are what mangle your thinking.  (more…)

Perception vs Reality

“It is often said by experienced investors that the equity market discounts future events. Investors who support that contention believe that if you wait for an event to occur before investing, then you would probably be too late because the investment implications would already have been priced into the particular investment.

The notion that the equity market discounts future events necessarily leads us to the conclusion that the equity  market prices stocks based on perception rather than on reality. Future events that are supposedly being discounted have not yet occurred. Therefore, stock price movements reflect investors’ changing perceptions of what will occur, but not what will certainly occur. If the market were able to discount an event with complete certainty, then we would not worry about volatility or risk.”

The Wit and Wisdom of Mark Douglas

TRADINGINZONE

“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realise you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”

“If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique.”

“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.” (more…)

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