Archives of “new york city” tag

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How expectations will destroy you.

  
Analysis, Education
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ExpectationsIt is easy to see others around you that are successful and just see two points.  Where you are and where they are.  It is easy to miss or skip what took place between.  Everyone would rather fly from New York to LA than drive.  If you look at trading as driving that distance chances are you are not going to have the time, money, or patience to do it. However, you have to get in a car to get to the airport.  How long that drive is ultimately up to you.

Getting off on the right foot.

Many traders get in the car not knowing where they are going.  Some of the time it leads them to the airport.  Most of the time it leads them in the complete opposite direction.  The do not know what they do not know. Chances are during this period they have had enough moments of success to keep them going. That amount of time, energy, and money was used to find out what they do not know.  Only they did not realize that or refuse to realize that.

Now what?

It is time to own your mistakes.  You can tell by the money and time that you burnt up that you made a mistake. If you try to make it all back at the wrong moments than the hole will get bigger.  This time you paid to learn what you already know.  Insert definition of insanity here.  Doing the same thing expecting different results.  Once again, you are at the cross roads and once again it is up to you.

  • Own your mistakes
  • Learn from them
  • Make them cost you less
  • Divide and conquer your losses
Moving on.

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China refineries reportedly processing 25% less oil than they were last year

  
  Analysis
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Bloomberg reports on the matter

The report highlights that Chinese refineries are cutting back on output even further to cope with weak demand and a lack of workers due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Throughput is now reported to be 25% below the average in 2H 2019 and the low run rates are expected to last through February at the very least. The run rates have fallen to just about 10 mil bpd this week – the lowest since 2014.

China oil
That certainly won’t give oil bulls much encouragement and this is another warning sign to overseas oil suppliers to China surely.
This headline alone may not be one that impacts the market too heavily but just note that all of these things add up when you weigh up the potential impact of that the coronavirus outbreak is having on the global economy.

New York City has its first suspected case of coronavirus

  
  Analysis
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Patient is at Bellevue hospital

Patient is at Bellevue hospital
New York City health officials announced today that a patient at Bellevue hospital is suspected to have coronavirus.
They’re sending a sample to the CDC to confirm and if so, it would be the first case in the city. Suspicious are high because the patient tested negative for influenza and other common illnesses.
The patient is under-40 and in stable conditions. Results are expected in 36-48 hours.
The person has a travel history to China but other details are unclear. This would be the ninth case in the US after one person was confirmed to have contracted the disease Friday near Boston.

Will China GDP matter more to assets than any US-China deal?

  
  Analysis
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Via Bloomberg

China
The title of this post was a good question on Bloomberg’s Markets live blog at the end of last week. Mark Cranfield phrased the question as follows:

China’s 3Q GDP is due Oct 18 and it could be the first time on record that it prints below 6%. That could have a greater long-term impact on assets than a partial trade deal. Especially, as Bloomberg Economics expect policy makers to step up stimulus in response to stabilise the mainland economy.

If so, will that make China equities an asset class that become less correlated to the direction of Wall Street and global stocks? Would it trigger an asset swicth away from China bonds that spills over to other fixed income markets?

My assessment is that Firstly.  China’s GDP growth is going to be slowing due to reasons of growth. It is not the norm for developed countries to have double digit growth in the GDP. As China joins those developed nations it is only normal that GDP slows in pace.
Secondly, on a more general note, I think that the US-China deal matters more than the GDP figures. No deal – bad GDP would have been the worst outcome. With the US and China together making up 40% of the world’s GDP and the US on it own about 25% a good deal between those two countries should ultimately put positivity back into asset classes. It feels like the disaster outcome has avoided for now.
What is your take on it?

“The Stock Market is Rigged!”

  
  Education
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Once upon a time in the late 1700′s, there were two types of sonofabitches trading the earliest version of securities in Lower Manhattan: There were the auctioneer sonofabitches and there were the merchant sonofabitches.

The auctioneers were all-powerful and totally destructive at times. They presided over trade, which took place outside under a Buttonwood Tree on Wall Street. What the auctioneers did that was most maddening to the rest of the participants in these protozoic markets was charge exorbitant commissions and allow for securities to trade in a lawless fashion, without regard for fairness of any kind.

Meanwhile, the cutthroat speculators were growing to be quite fed up with this arrangement so they did what all would-be conspirators do – they met in secret to plot an overthrow. In March of 1792, twenty four of these merchant sonofabitches snuck into the Corre’s Hotel, which occupied what is now 68 Wall Street (which has since been absorbed into 40 Wall Street, aka the Trump Building), for their clandestine sitdown.

Two months later, they hatched their scheme, signing a document called the Buttonwood Agreement (at left), named for the tree they’d been wheeling and dealing under each day. The accord meant that all twenty four signers were bound to trade securities only amongst each other, to deny entry into their clique to outsiders who’d not been accepted by the membership and to fix commissions on trades at a set amount (.25% of face value for all shares of stock or similar instrument). This banding together made these twenty four large-scale merchant sonofabitches into the de facto monopoly that controlled all trade and it sent the other sonofabitches, the auctioneers, out of business. (more…)

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