Archives of “mental mistakes” tag

rss

A Few Notes on The Little Book of Behavioral Investing

  
Analysis, Education, LINKS
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy, author James Montier states: “I…highlight some of the most destructive behavioral biases and common mental mistakes that I’ve seen professional investors make. I’ll teach you how to recognize these mental pitfalls while exploring the underlying psychology behind the mistake. Then I show you what you can do to try to protect your portfolio from their damaging influence on your returns.” Biases he surveys include: action bias, bias for stories, confirmation bias, conformity bias (herding or groupthink), conservatism (including sunk cost fallacy), disposition effect, empathy gap, endowment effect, hindsight bias, illusion of control, inattentional blindness, information overload, loss aversion, myopia, overconfidence, overoptimism, placebo effect, self-attribution bias and self-serving bias). Value investing provides the context for discussion. Citing a number of studies, he concludes that:

“…we should do our investment research when we are in a cold, rational state–and when nothing much is happening in markets–and then pre-commit to following our own analysis and prepared action steps.”

“…fear causes people to ignore bargains when they are available in the market… The ‘battle plan for reinvestment’ is a schedule of pre-commitments…”

“We should get used to asking ‘Must I believe this?’ rather than… ‘Can I believe this?’” (more…)

The harder I try, the more money I lose. What’s going on?

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Email-Icon

A:  This is a fairly common phenomenon which is why we have to learn how to adapt to market conditions and be patient with our strategies. Just because you “try harder” doesn’t mean that your profits will expand equally in relation to your effort. While effort helps create and sustain an edge, at the end of the day you still need the market to cooperate with whatever you are doing.

The best analogy I can provide here is one that many golfers are familiar with. If you’ve ever golfed in high winds, you know that your score will often be higher. Some of this, obviously is due directly to the windy conditions (which you have no control over). However, studies show that the most significant reason why golfers perform poorly in windy conditions has less to do with the conditions but more about how they react to those conditions. For example, many golfers will tend to swing harder in high winds which causes them to lose both their swing tempo and balance and they make more mental mistakes because the wind distracts them. The same is true for traders whose strategies are not flowing with the market. Without realizing it, traders will modify their own approaches (often by trying harder by making trades that don’t fit their strategy) which tends to hurt performance more than it helps.

Bottom line – keep close tabs on yourself and how you’re “adjusting” to market conditions. Being aware of how the market environment is affecting you and your changes to it is an important skill every trader must possess.

The Fallacy Of Higher Effort = Higher Returns

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

mailEvery week I will try to dedicate some time to answering questions that readers and  members send in to me.
First off, thank you again for letting me know what is on your mind and for pointing out topics I need to discuss further. While I’m not able to answer all of the questions submitted, I have read each one submitted to me and will be looking for opportunities to share information that will be helpful to you in the coming weeks.
Today just covering one question sent by one Trader.
question-mark

Q:  The harder I try, the more money I lose. What’s going on?

 

A:  This is a fairly common phenomenon which is why we have to learn how to adapt to market conditions and be patient with our strategies. Just because you “try harder” doesn’t mean that your profits will expand equally in relation to your effort. While effort helps create and sustain an edge, at the end of the day you still need the market to cooperate with whatever you are doing.

The best analogy I can provide here is one that many golfers are familiar with. If you’ve ever golfed in high winds, you know that your score will often be higher. Some of this, obviously is due directly to the windy conditions (which you have no control over). (more…)

Go to top