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Gambling vs. Trading

  
  Education
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“Gambling is taking a risk when the odds are against you.  Speculating is taking a risk when the odds are in your favor.”  Victor Sperandeo

“the only difference between gambling and trading is that your amount at risk and amount of potential reward varies with trading.”  I agree, but there’s more to it.  The parallels are obvious, from the lack of control over outcome to the illusion of knowledge to the physiological effects of having a stake in the outcome.  However, the differences are substantial…and mostly mathematical.

The expectancy in gambling is ALWAYS terrible, while market speculation at times offers outstanding opportunities.  To get a 2:1 or 3:1 opportunity in gambling, one needs to accept incredibly low odds of victory.  In financial markets, those 2:1 or above opportunities come around like clockwork and offer high enough probability that long-term positive expectancy is possible.  Not only that, but the market speculator has the opportunity to adjust his or her position after the game begins…when was the last horse race where you could take a little off the table after the first turn?  Or reclaim most of your bet when your horse stumbles out of the gate?

I’ll leave the neuroscience to the experts, but it seems to me that we need to coordinate our left brain(rational) and right brain(experiential) in laying out the role of each.  We want to allow our intuition to shine through, but within the overall structure of positive expectancy.  No matter how hard one tries, the math of gambling can’t come close to touching the opportunities for building a business out of the markets.

Gambling vs. Trading

  
  Education
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The expectancy in gambling is ALWAYS terrible, while market speculation at times offers outstanding opportunities.  To get a 2:1 or 3:1 opportunity in gambling, one needs to accept incredibly low odds of victory.  In financial markets, those 2:1 or above opportunities come around like clockwork and offer high enough probability that long-term positive expectancy is possible.  Not only that, but the market speculator has the opportunity to adjust his or her position after the game begins…when was the last horse race where you could take a little off the table after the first turn?  Or reclaim most of your bet when your horse stumbles out of the gate?

Bernard Baruch’s 10 Trading Rules

  
  Education
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While pure trend followers and technical analysts will not agree with all of Mr. Baruch’s principles it is interesting to read through them, they are the same as some of the top traders and investors of our age. Some of these all traders can agree on.

Bernard Baruch was a millionaire in his early thirties after a few good runs in the stock market and devoted the remainder of his life serving the public and helping the U.S. win World Was I and World War II. He was a big believer in serving his country and that was the main purpose for the remainder of his life after he made his fortune.

Here is a summary of his 10 rules summarized:

1. Only speculate if you can do it full time.
2. Ignore inside information and tips.
3. Have a complete understanding of a companies fundamentals before you buy the stock.
4. Don’t try to buy bottoms or sell tops.
5. Cut your losses quickly.
6. Focus on and buy only a few stocks.
7. Review and update your investments periodically for changes.
8. Study your tax position to know when to sell at greatest advantage.
9. Never invest all your funds. Keep a reserve.
10. Stick to the field you know best in investments.

His biography is a great read for anyone interested in this great man and master trader who counseled presidents and was a close associate of Winston Churchill. It is interesting that it shows how far ahead of his time Mr. Baruch was in not only stock speculating but also discrimination and economics.  If you are reading it for only his advice on stocks just read Chapter 19: My investment philosophy. It is one of the greatest chapters you will find anywhere on advice for successful market speculation. He will explains to readers that economic conditions do not drive prices, peoples perceptions do. Cut your losses fast. Sell your worst performers and keep your best. Know what you are investing in. You can only truly learn the rules of stock trading by experiencing the losses personally.

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