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French study says that nearly 3 million people in the country have been infected by the coronavirus

This according to a study by the Pasteur Institute

France

The study was published yesterday, with researchers saying that the infection rate in the worst-hit parts of France i.e. eastern part of the country and Paris region, is somewhere between 9 and 10 percent on average.

That is leading to about 4.4% of the French population, or 2.8 million people, to have been infected by the coronavirus – which is much higher than the official case count.
This is interesting to see because it shares a similar result to a Spanish study, which suggested that 5% of the country’s population had contracted the coronavirus.
But the more important takeaway from both studies is that they note the number of infections are nowhere near achieving the so-called “herd immunity”, which requires around 65% of the population to have been infected and recovered from the infection.
As such, the French research institute says that “without a vaccine, relying on the herd immunity alone will not be enough to avoid a second wave at the end of the lockdown” and that “efficient control measures must be upheld even after 11 May”.
I don’t think we will ever get to the bottom of figuring out the true count of the coronavirus infections globally, but what is more important is to observe the trend.
If you’re looking to travel globally in the future, I think it is prudent to acknowledge that it will definitely come with risks so countries with higher transparency – or at least what is perceived to be – and better handling will surely be rewarded in that regard.
As for economies and markets, the numbers can be 100,000 or 10,000,000 but at the end of the day it all depends on what governments are doing i.e. lockdown/restrictions.

Education of a Trader

Do you remember from your school days those students who, when confronted with a complex issue, would acquire a look on their faces somewhere between consternation and dread, immediately thrust a waving hand up into the air and blurt out in a worried voice, “Do we have to know this for the test?” I can be fairly sure that none of these people ended up as successful traders.

One only has to look at the history of hiring patterns at Wall Street firms to get a sense of the evolution of thinking about how to develop a successful trader. For many years, the model for aspiring traders was considered to be a genteel Ivy League education. Over time, Wall Street firms began to favor graduates with a more humble socioeconomic pedigree who were considered hungry, hard working and highly motivated to prove something to the world. In more recent years, we have seen Wall Street seek out physicists and those with exceptional quantitative skills. Lately, a desire for poker skills has also come into play.

As I see it, all traders are ultimately self-taught. There are no required classes, readings, homework assignments or even a syllabus with recommendations. Tests are administered on a daily basis, frequently with multiple tests on the same day. Worst of all, everyone is graded on an unfavorable curve in which there are more Fs than As.

Against this backdrop, education counts, but skill and experience count even more. An insatiable curiosity helps, as does a willingness to explore unfamiliar territory. Great trades, insights and strategies present themselves in somewhat random fashion and, as Louis Pasteur observed, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”

But what kind of preparation is ideal? Malcolm Gladwell asserts that 10,000 hours of experience is a prerequisite for greatness in almost any field. In a normal career, that level of commitment usually translates to five years, but on Wall Street, 10,000 hours of experience can be crammed into 3–4 years. Of course, all hours are not created equal. A trader’s capacity to distinguish between random events and meaningful patterns is important to establish a solid trajectory of growth and development.

For my personal education process, unlearning was more important than learning. My formal schooling consisted of an undergraduate degree in political science and a traditional MBA program. After two decades of business strategy consulting experience deeply rooted in fundamental analysis, I was ill-equipped to excel in a short-term trading time frame. In order to embrace technical analysis, I first had to jettison my fundamental perspective on investments and build a new foundation based on technical analysis and market sentiment.

In my opinion, the best way to approach trading is to consider the educational process to be a lifelong endeavor, crossing as many multi-disciplinary boundaries as can be digested. In a way, I like to think of the foundation of trading success as building a large idea stew and developing an eye for spotting high potential new ideas. The trick is to have the right breadth and depth of knowledge so that when one stumbles on the next great strategy, it can be easily identified, captured and developed. Call it opportunistic research and development, if you will.

As luck would have it, some of the most successful trading strategies I employ are based on areas in which I had limited knowledge when I first encountered them. No matter how well things are going, I take the approach that I never have the luxury of being satisfied with the status quo and need to embrace the idea of getting out of my comfort zone. In trading and in life, it pays to constantly refresh the pipeline of new ideas and continue to tinker with them, because you never know what will be on tomorrow’s test.

The only way to be successful in the markets

Successful businesswomanSome might have longer holding periods they like to stick to. Some might prefer switching positions on a much more frequent basis. It all comes down to the same. Getting exposure to opportunities. Here’s a quote from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book ‘The Black Swan’ describing that phenomenon. Quote from page 170:

“… seemed to follow implicitly, though not explicitly, Louis Pasteur’s adage about creating luck by sheer exposure. ‘Luck favors the prepared,’ Pasteur said, and, like all great discoverers, he knew something about accidental discoveries. The best way to get maximal exposure is to keep researching. Collect opportunities…”

So whenever a trade doesn’t work keep in mind the outcome of one single trade doesn’t really matter. What it all comes down to is to repeat the process over and over again. In the long run doing research on a regular basis and getting exposure to opportunities is the only way to be successful in the markets.

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