Archives of “Linguistics” tag

rss

What’s priced in for the Federal Reserve now?

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #

We’re done with Fedspeak until the March 18 decision

The bond market has gone haywire today and with the VIX at 50, the market is begging for more help from the Fed.
Still, US stocks are only down 9% year-to-date so maybe the Fed will want to save some ammunition? We will see on March 18.
The final Fed comments before the blackout came from Rosengren, who was talking about more Fed asset and securities purchases beyond government-backed securities. So if we’re already talking about beyond the zero bound, maybe we will be there before long.
The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in 50 basis points of easing on March 18 and a 51% chance of a 75 bps cut. The 10-year inverted below T-bills today and well below Fed funds so it’s certainly on the table. That would leave rates at 0.25-0.50% and leave the Fed with only one traditional cut and that’s 65% priced in for Sept.

Powell superman

BREAKING : China also says have found effective drug to treat people with new coronavirus

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

According to Chinese television, being reported across social media

It says that the research team at Zhejiang University has found an effective drug to treat people with the new coronavirus. This isn’t making main news wires just yet but we will see.
Risk is jumping higher on the headlines here with USD/JPY getting a brief spike from 109.40 to 109.72 before settling a little lower. Treasury yields also jumped higher with 10-year yields rising to 1.639% before ticking back a little lower now to 1.620%.

Iran Pres. Rouhani says Iran is determined to leave doors open to save nuclear deal

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Comments after telephone call with France’s Macron

More encouraging comments from Iran….
Iran Pres Rouhani says Iran is determined to leave doors open to save 2015 nuclear deal. This comes after a telephone call with France’s Macron.
The price of crude oil is trading down $1.81 or -3.2% at $54.96. The low just extended to $54.85

Once Kissed, Twice Shy

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #

The markets have a plethora of different structures and associations with numbers. Some examples are:

1. Round numbers

2. Opening & closing times

3. Limits

4. Constantly changing magnitudes and significance placed thereupon (for example there were extended periods last summer when the SPU futures had daily ranges in the mid single digits and now it’s a score (20) per day).

Much work is done splicing and dicing numbers and looking for statistically significant positive expectations based on various past conditionality.

As another part of that, I wonder whether or not the first, or second or third instance of some stimuli is more or less predictive than the other or others.

This has been brought up in my mind by the recent dance of the seven veils of many markets with many round numbers.

As a start, how about this:

1. Is the first break of a round more or less predictive than the second (assuming the market has reversed intermediately)?

2. Are moves of the same magnitude in the same or opposite directions of interest within a given timeframe?

3. More qualitatively, when a market breaks some predefined barrier (a round, a magnitude, a correlation coefficient et al) and subsequently does so again later, is this last move more likely to have the same sign/ opposite sign and will the magnitude be greater or lesser?

12 Signs of Stress for Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Markets have been particularly volatile recently, at least for intraday traders and daytrading can create a significant amount of stress. Because our bodies are designed to adapt to stress, we may fail to realize that we are stressed out.
Here’s an inventory of common trader behaviors that may signify excessive stress.
12 Signs of Stress
1. A vivid fantasy of making lots of money today.
2. Feelings of invulnerability.
3. Eating breakfast or lunch at your trading desk.
4. Hyperfocus on price bars as they form.
5. Talking out loud to the market.
6. Bargaining with the market about an open position.
7. Cursing at the market.
8. Expressing irritation at partner, kids, pets, plants, inanimate objects.
9. Sudden urge to increase position size or frequency.
10. Canceling or moving stops for no good reason
11. Adding to a losing position.
12. Trading in your underwear !
TIP: Stress degrades decision-making. If you are stressed out, shift your focus 

Go to top