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Eurostoxx futures +1.0% in early European trading

A slightly more positive tone but it belies the underlying risk tone risk

  • German DAX futures +1.0%
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.6%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.9%
Despite some positive elements to kick start the morning, it doesn’t quite tell the whole story in the market as we see the dollar keep slightly firmer to start the session.
US futures are also down by 0.5% currently while the bond market is hinting at more tepid tones as well. As such, be mindful of stock gains ahead of the cash market open.

What’s priced in for the Federal Reserve now?

We’re done with Fedspeak until the March 18 decision

The bond market has gone haywire today and with the VIX at 50, the market is begging for more help from the Fed.
Still, US stocks are only down 9% year-to-date so maybe the Fed will want to save some ammunition? We will see on March 18.
The final Fed comments before the blackout came from Rosengren, who was talking about more Fed asset and securities purchases beyond government-backed securities. So if we’re already talking about beyond the zero bound, maybe we will be there before long.
The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in 50 basis points of easing on March 18 and a 51% chance of a 75 bps cut. The 10-year inverted below T-bills today and well below Fed funds so it’s certainly on the table. That would leave rates at 0.25-0.50% and leave the Fed with only one traditional cut and that’s 65% priced in for Sept.

Powell superman

BREAKING : China also says have found effective drug to treat people with new coronavirus

According to Chinese television, being reported across social media

It says that the research team at Zhejiang University has found an effective drug to treat people with the new coronavirus. This isn’t making main news wires just yet but we will see.
Risk is jumping higher on the headlines here with USD/JPY getting a brief spike from 109.40 to 109.72 before settling a little lower. Treasury yields also jumped higher with 10-year yields rising to 1.639% before ticking back a little lower now to 1.620%.
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