Archives of “Jobless claims” tag

rss

US initial jobless claims 1006K vs 1000K estimate

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #

US initial jobless claims and continuing claims

  • initial jobless claims 1006K vs 1000K estimate
  • jobless claims four-week average 1068K vs 1175.25K last week
  • continuing jobless claims 14535K vs 14400K estimate
  • continuing claims four-week average 15215K vs 15819.75 last week
Initial jobless claimsThe claims data continues to disappoint with the weekly numbers back above 1 million for the 2nd week in a row after dipping below for one week early in August (to 971).
Continuing claims also was slightly higher than expectations. Nevertheless it was still lower vs. the last week’s revised 14758K number.

US weekly initial jobless claims 963K vs 1100K expected

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #

Claims fall below 1 million

weekly initial jobless claims
  • Prior was 1186K (revised to 1191K)
  • Continuing claims 15486K vs 15800K expected
  • Prior continuing claims 16090K
  • PUA claims 489K vs 656K prior
  • Full report
The total number of people claiming benefits for all programs was 28,257,995, down 3065K from the prior week.
This was the first time initial jobless claims were below 1 million in 21 weeks.

This is the biggest jobless claims report in a long time

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Initial jobless claims top the economic calendar

Initial jobless claims top the economic calendar
The weekly initial jobless claims report at the bottom of the hour is for the week ending March 14 so it’s before the real coronavirus crunch, which is a week or two away.
Last week was 211K and the ‘consensus’ this week is 220K but that’s far lower than what the market is expecting. State unemployment claims in some places are up 5x to 10x.
Last week I was warning about this and when I wrote that ‘The coming wave of unemployment claims is going to be unprecedented‘ there were comments like this:
Where are you guys coming up with this stuff… I was out last night eating and food places are full stores are full… you are acting like this is the end of the world…this is being blow up to be way way more that what it is… which is nothing more than a cold with a twist on it that has not even gone above last year flu session. This is completely stupid what the news media is doing.
Now it’s conventional wisdom.
What we haven’t figured out is if the bureaucracy can handle and process the level of claims to actually get people the money. That’s more important right now than a $1 trillion piece of legislation the White House is proposing to get people money at the end of April.

US January nonfarm payroll report is due Friday 7 February 2020 – preview

  
  Analysis
#  #

Snippet from Goldman Sachs on what they expect

  • +190k
  • unemployment 3.5%
Citing:
  • initial jobless claims declined further
  • ADP job gains were significantly larger than expected
  • an unseasonably dry survey week in the Northeast and Ohio Valley is set to boost weather-sensitive categories
  • January job growth tends to accelerate in tight labour markets, as labor supply constraints may lead firms to implement fewer end-of-year layoffs
Go to top