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Key events and releases next week. Jackson Hole symposium the highlight

  
  Analysis
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Feds Powell to speak at 10 AM ET on Friday August 27

Next week’s key events and releases will be highlighted by the Jackson Hole symposium which will take place from August 26 through August 28.  The main speech made by Fed chair Powell, will take place on August 27 at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.
The market will be focused on any time one projections from the Fed chair for taper.  There have been a number of Fed officials who have expressed the desire to begin the taper sooner rather than later.  However, Feds Kaplan – one of the more hawkish Fed Presidents – dialed back a bit on concerns if the Delta variants starts to impact production.
Other key events include:
Monday, August 23:
  • Australia flash manufacturing and services PMI 7 PM ET/2300 GMT
  • France flash manufacturing and services PMI.  3:15 AM ET/715 GMT. Estimate 57.1 manufacturing. 56.2 services
  • German flash manufacturing and service PMI, 3:30 AM ET/730 GMT. Estimate 65.1 manufacturing and 61.0 services
  • UK flash manufacturing and services PMI. 4:30 AM ET/830 GMT.  Estimate 59.5 manufacturing and 59.0 services
  • US flash manufacturing and services PMI. 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT.  Estimate 62.8 manufacturing and 59.1 services
Tuesday, August 24
  • New Zealand retail sales, 6:45 PM ET Monday/2245 GMT Monday. Estimate 2.0% versus 2.5% last month. Core retail sales 1.9% versus 3.2% last month
  • US new home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Estimate 698K versus 676K last month
  • US Richard Fed manufacturing index. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Last month 27.0
Wednesday, August 25:
  • German Ifo business climate.  4 AM ET/800 GMT. Estimate 100.6 versus 100.8 last month
  • US durable goods orders. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate -0.2% versus +0.9% last month. Core durable goods +0.4% estimate versus +0.5% last month
  • Weekly crude oil inventories. 10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT. Crude oil has been down for seven consecutive days
Thursday, August 26.
  • US preliminary GDP 3Q. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Estimate 6.6% versus 6.5% for the first cut
  • US unemployment claims.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate 355K versus 348K last week
  • Start of Jackson Hole symposium
Friday, August 27
  • Australian retail sales, 9:30 PM ET Thursday/1330 GMT.  Estimate -2.0% versus -1.8% last month
  • US Core PCE price index MoM, 8:30 AM ET.  Estimate 0.3% versus 0.4% last month
  • Fed chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium.  10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • US revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment.  Estimate 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.  Estimate 71.2 versus 70.2 preliminary
Saturday, August 28
  • Jackson Hole symposium

Federal Reserve FOMC minutes (June meeting) are published Wednesday 7 July 2021

  
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Minutes to the June 15-16 meeting are due at 1800 GMT.

At the meeting (in a very brief summary)
  • members moved forward expectations for rate hikes
  • talked about tapering asset purchasing
The minutes will be scoured for further indications around timing of tapering QE, also risks to the economic outlook that may delay tapering (and on the flip side, what may shift it forward).
The buying of USTs (lower yields) may be indicative that the bond market is seeing risks of having hit ‘peak growth’, or that inflation is indeed transitory (these are two possibilities for the bond market bid amongst countless other explanations out there). Perhaps the minutes will shed more light on what the Federal Open Market Committee is thinking.

Reminder: OPEC+ JMMC meeting will take place later today

  
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The meeting is scheduled for 1400 GMT

But just take note that with all things OPEC+ related, there’s a likelihood it could be delayed for a few minutes or hours and what not. So, it will happen when it happens.

That said, the meeting today is likely just to reaffirm the bloc’s commitment to production cuts and to assess the compliance over the past two months.
The July compliance is slated to be at around 95% to 97% – down from 107% in June – but it shouldn’t be much of a problem all things considered, especially since oil prices are holding at more favourable levels (at least from the bloc’s perception).

Heads up: OPEC+ JMMC meeting scheduled to start at 1400 GMT on 19 August

  
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Bloomberg with the headline, citing OPEC on the matter

Just a heads up to the meeting later this week, in case we hear of how the compliance issue is going or any possible plans for future production cuts and what not.
The latest reports are suggesting that OPEC+ sees ~95% compliance to its production cuts in July and I reckon that is somewhat of a satisfactory figure, so there shouldn’t be too much complaints despite that being down from ~107% in June.

Key economic releases and events for next week’s trading

  
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Big week for stock earnings. Advance GDP to be released

In addition to a slew of big-name earnings including Apple, Amazon, Google the key economic releases and events for next week include:

Monday, July 27
  • US durable goods, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
Tuesday, July 28
  • RBA assistant governor can’t speaks at 8 PM ET, Monday/0030 GMT
  • Spanish unemployment rate, 3 AM ET/0700 GMT
  • US consumer confidence, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
Wednesday, July 29
  • Australia CPI QoQ, 9:30 PM ET Tuesday/0130 GMT
  • US pending home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • FOMC decision and statement, 2 PM ET/1800 GMT
  • FOMC press conference, 2:30 PM ET/1830 GMT
Thursday, July 30
  • German preliminary GDP quarter on quarter, 4 AM ET/0 800 GMT
  • US advance GDP for the 2nd quarter annualized, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US initial claims for unemployment, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
Friday, July 31
  • China manufacturing PMI, 9 PM ET Thursday/0100 GMT
  • Canada GDP, 8:30 AM ET/12:30 GMT
  • US core PCE price index 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Chicago purchasing managers index, 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment revised, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT

In addition, the US coronavirus relief package will continue to be worked out between Republicans and Democrats.

Economic data coming up in the European session

  
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US equities snapped back to losses yesterday, though they finished off the lows at least. Futures are keeping mildly higher today but the overall mood remains more tepid as we start to move towards European morning trade.

The dollar is a touch softer but nothing significant, as major currencies are still keeping in rather narrow ranges for the most part today.
It is still going to be all about risk sentiment ahead of the weekend, so expect virus headlines to dominate once again to see if we can get more meaningful price action rather than the choppy back and forth we have been seeing since last week.
0900 GMT – Eurozone May construction output data
Prior release can be found here. Construction activity is expected to bounce back after bottoming out in April, but overall conditions should remain highly subdued still.
0900 GMT – Eurozone June final CPI figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn’t have much – if any – impact to markets.
Also, at 0800 GMT we will be getting the latest ECB survey of professional of forecasters but it isn’t really much of a notable release.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

One thing to add to your economic calendar today — WHO press conference

  
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Press conference is scheduled for 1830 GMT

The World Health Organization is meeting right now in Geneva to discuss whether to designate coronavirus as a global public health emergency.
They plan to hold a press conference at 1830 GMT (1:30 pm in New York).
The committee was divided seven days and there have been cases of human-to-human transmission outside of China so I think it’s assured that an emergency will be declared. I expect the decision could leak out before the press conference as well, so watch out for that in the next few hours.
How will the market react? It should be priced in but the market is struggling to get a handle on the scope and scale of this virus so there’s an element of headline shock that I think could sour the mood.

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today

  
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2245 GMT New Zealand Building permits for August

  • prior -1.3% m/m

2301 GMT UK data – Lloyds Business barometer for September

  • prior 1

2350 GMT Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions from the most recent monetary policy meeting.

  • The ‘summary’ is out well ahead of the minutes and adds a bit more info to the post-meeting statement.

2350 GMT Japan

August Retail Sales y/y,

  • expected is 0.7%, prior was -2.0%

Retail Sales m/m,

  •  expected is 2.4%, prior was -2.3%

Industrial production for August preliminary

  • y/y, expected is -0.5%, prior was 1.3%
  • m/m, expected is -3.9%, prior was 0.7%

0100 GMT – New Zealand – ANZ business survey for September

  • Business Activity Outlook prior -1 (a drop of 6 points)
  • Business Confidence prior -52 (a drop of 8 points)
  • Business Confidence is a concern for NZ policy makers – low confidence flows through to less business investment and job creation.

0100 GMT Australia monthly inflation guide for September

Melbourne Institute

  • prior 0.0% m/m, 1.7% y/y
  • This is only a monthly guide, albeit a good one. Official CPI data from OZ in only once a quarter.

0100 PMI data from China for September

  • manufacturing expected 49.6, prior 49.5
  • non-manufacturing expected 54.0, prior 53.8
  • composite prior 53.0

0110 GMT Bank of Japan Japanese Government Bond buying operation

  • 1 – 3, 3 – 5 years remaining until maturity

0130 GMT Australia private sector credit for

  • expected 0.3% prior 0.2% m/m
  • expected 3.0% prior 3.1% y/y

0145GMT back to China for the Caixin / Markit Manufacturing PMI

  • expected 50.2, prior 50.4
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