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Japan PM Abe: Current situation does not call for state of emergency declaration

  
  Analysis
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Comments by Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe

  • Coronavirus cases are rising, government is watching closely
It is clear that the virus situation across the country is not getting any better as the curve is steepening as the days go by. Japan reported a single day record of 980 new virus cases yesterday, with infections also picking up outside of Tokyo.
Japan
Osaka is reported to find 149 new cases today and that would be the daily record for the prefecture, with Tokyo having found another 260 new cases as reported earlier.
As much as the government insists that things are “under control”, you have to wonder where will they draw the line and say that they have made a mess of the situation.
Eventually, the fear of the virus spread in itself will take a toll on the economy – as much as the government wants to keep business activity running for as long as they can afford to. Unfortunately, that comes at the costs of people’s health and well being, and at worst lives.

Japan PM Abe: Wants to start cash handouts as early as possible in May

  
  Analysis
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Comments by Japan prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in parliament

Japan
  • Economy is in an extremely severe state
  • This will continue for some time
  • Japan not seeing an explosive increase in virus cases now
The headline remark relates to the ¥100,000 cash handout to every citizen in the country. When launching these measures, timing and effectiveness are both equally key.
It sounds good to get money to every citizen to mitigate the fallout from the virus impact. But if it takes too long to reach them, the damage becomes more permanent.
In the case of other government measures, the effectiveness matters too. A good example is the US’ PPP funding whereby large and publicly traded companies even swooped in for the money alongside smaller companies and mom-and-pop shops.
So, while the market may respond favourably to these stimulus measures on the announcement, the true “value” depends on the execution. And that will show up in the medium-to-long term fundamentals in each country once this is all over and done with.

Coronavirus – Japan’s PM Abe on Saturday promises unprecedented economic stimulus

  
  Analysis
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Abe said measures will include fiscal and monetary stimulus alongside tax breaks for companies

  • details have not been finalized
  • package will be rolled out in an extra budget in 10 days
  • size of the package will be greater than that compiled in response to the global financial crisis (total 57 trillion yen) said Abe
Abe spoke during a nationally televised news conference
  • “I want to be straightforward”
  • “We are in a critical stage. We need to be ready for a long-term battle”
  • “The pandemic is inflicting extremely big damage to Japan’s economy”
  • “We’ll deploy a huge, powerful package that will include a full range of fiscal, monetary and tax measures.”
Abe said measures will include fiscal and monetary stimulus alongside tax breaks for companies

Italy says that virus outbreak still has not reached its peak in the country

  
  Analysis
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Comments by Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte

Italy
  • Weeks ahead are the most risky
  • Maximum precaution is needed but there is no need for new bans
  • Says Italians need to respect the existing ones
  • Approved measures are not sufficient to support businesses
Much like China, it will be many more weeks before Italy can actually start to phase out the current lockdown. Over the weekend, France and Spain are among those starting to take similar actions and this will further dampen euro area economic conditions.

PM shuts down France. All non-essential commercial businesses closed

  
  Analysis
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France goes on lockdown after nearly 1000 new cases today

Paris closed
French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe closed all cafes, restaurants, discos and cinemas until further notice.
That will mean almost a complete halt of the world’s seventh largest economy with neighbouring Italy in the same situation. Germany and Spain remain open but cases are rising.
Banks, grocery stores and pharmacies will remain open along with public transit but Philippe asked that people limit use to essential travel.
“We must show more discipline,” he said after noting that too many people were still out in restaurants and cafes.
Other businesses can remain open but Philippe encouraged working from home wherever possible.
At the same time, the number of cases in France rose to 4.499 from 3,661 a day earlier. Cases have doubled in 72 hours. Deaths hit 91 from 79 on Friday.

US Senate sets rules for Trump’s impeachment trial, adopts McConnell’s plan

  
Analysis, Politics
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The Senate rejects the final Democratic amendment to the impeachment rules

Trump

The rules resolution passed with a vote of 53-47, allowing for a more relaxed timeline as Trump’s defense now have three days to present their arguments – instead of the originally proposed two days.

The Senate is also sticking with Mitch McConnell’s plan to put off the question of calling additional witnesses and have shelved amendments from Chuck Schumer to subpoena new documents and testimony related to the trial.
It’s not like this makes a huge difference but this just reaffirms the notion that Trump will no doubt be acquitted when all this is said and done. But this just means that the trial could conclude as soon as next week if no new witnesses are called upon.

US-China relations: US Senate passes bill in support of Hong Kong protests

  
  Analysis
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The bill will head on back to the house of Representatives now on its way to final passage.

Its a good idea to look at this in the context of trade talks. You can bet Chinese leaders will be. Not a risk positive.

Trump impeachment update – House has enough votes to impeach (no update on Senate)

  
Analysis, Politics
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Its going to be a job keeping up with developments on the impeachment inquiry.

Latest is
  • 218 House Members now support impeachment inquiry
  • Which is enough to impeach Trump in the House
As you’d all know, the numbers are not there in the Senate, where Trump’s party is in the majority).
Its going to be a job keeping up with developments on the impeachment inquiry.

China Beige Book says the country’s economy the weakest it has been all year in Q3

  
Analysis, Economy
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China’s economy at its weakest for the year, CBB saying manufacturing, property and the services sectors all worsening

  • lending has increased
  • current weakness in the economy is primarily due to manufacturing
  • drop in exports a factor
  • most of the decline was due to “considerably slower sales price growth
Bloomberg with the report.
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China Beige Book adapts methodology used by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book”
  • It’s a privately produced quarterly report
  • Uses quantitative & qualitative data to track conditions within the Chinese economy

German Finance Minister says could deploy up to 50bn EUR of extra spending if needed

  
Analysis, Economy
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German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz spoke on Sunday,

  • Said Germany has fiscal strength
  • is thus able to counter future economic crisis “with full force”
  • could spend up to 50bn EUR extra
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Germany’s economy is showing signs of slowing, Scholz floating the idea here of dially back government promises to target balanced budgets and instead borrow to fund investment.
  • if we have a debt level in Germany in relation to economic output that is below 60 percent, then this is the strength we have to counter a crisis with full force
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