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Japan GDP preliminary for Q2 -7.8% q/q (vs. expected -7.5%)

  
Analysis, Economy
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Japan GDP preliminary for Q2 2020, capturing the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and response

GDP sa -7.8% q/q  , a miss on already ugly low expectations

  • expected -7.5%, prior -0.6%

GDP annualised sa -27.8% q/q (ps when you see screaming headlines that Japan’s economy has shrunken 30% …. it hasn’t, but this is what the economically illiterate are referring to – you’ll know better)

  • expected -26.9%, prior -2.2%

GDP nominal -7.4% q/q

  • expected -6.5%, prior -0.5%

GDP deflator (an inflation indication) %

  • expected 1.7%, prior 0.9%

Private consumption -8.2%

  • expected -6.9% q/q, prior -0.8%

Business spending -1.5% … if there is some not quite so bad news to take away from the data release this smaller than expected drop in capex is it

  • expected -4.0%, prior -1.7%
This is the 3rd consecutive quarter of GDP contraction for Japan.
Japan is a net exporters, the decline in demand offshore has taken a heavy toll on shipments – Q2 exports fell at their fastest since Q1 2009 (GFC influence) and external demand has subtracted the biggest hit from GDP since 1980 (based on comparable data).
ps. yen is doing little on the data release.

Japan GDP for Q1, preliminary: GDP -0.9% sa q/q (vs. expected -1.1%)

  
Analysis, Economy
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Japanese economic growth in the January to March quarter of 2020 – this the preliminary release

GDP -0.9% sa q/q
  • expected -1.1%, prior -1.8%

GDP -3.4% annualised sa q/q

  • expected -4.5%, prior -7.1%
GDP -0.8% nominal q/q
  • expected -1.3%, prior -1.5%

GDP deflator (an inflation indication) %

  • expected 0.7%, prior 1.2%

Private consumption -0.7%

  • expected -1.6% q/q, prior -2.8%

Business spending -0.5% (capex)

  • expected -1.5%, prior -4.6%
More:
  • 2 consecutive quarters of contraction for the Japanese economy, the economy moves into recession for the first time since H2 of 2015
  • Q1 exports had their biggest drop q/q since the 2nd quarter of 2011, down 6%
January and February were stable to slowly picking up for Japan but the outbreak in  March hit economic growth. The April to June quarter is likely to be even worse, with a more prolonged impact. Restrictions were imposed by the April 7 national emergency declaration shutting many restaurants, large retail outlets, hotels and more. The restrictions were partially lifted on May 14, but are still in place for Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities in Japan.
Yen doing little.
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