Archives of “expectation” tag

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10 Typical Trading Errors

  
  Education
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1)Refusing to define a loss

2)Not Liquidating a losing trade ,even after you had acknowledged the trades’s potential is greatly diminished.

3)Getting locked into a specific opinion or belief about market direction.From a  psychological perspective this is equivalent to trying to control the market with your expectation of what it will do :”I’m right ,the market is wrong.”

4)Focussing on price and the monetary value of a trade,instead of the potential for the market to move based on its behaviour and structure.

5)Revenge-trading as if you were trying get back at the market for what it took away from you.

6) No reversing your position even when you clearly sense a change in market direction.

7)Not following the ruled of the trading system.

8)Planning for a move or feeling one building ,but then finding yourself immobilized to hit the bid or offer ,and there after denying yourself the opportunity to profit.

9)Not acting on your instincts or intuition.

10)Establishing a consistent pattern of trading success over a period of time ,and then giving your winnings back to the market in one or two trades and starting the cycle over again.

Dhirubhai Ambani's W-I-L-L

  
Education, Humour
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mu-cash-anil
quotes
“I am deaf to the word “no”.”
“Think big, think fast, think ahead. Ideas are no one’s monopoly”
“You do not require an invitation to make profits.”
“If you work with determination and with perfection, success will follow.”
“Pursue your goals even in the face of difficulties, and convert adversities into opportunities.”
“We bet on people.”
“Meeting the deadlines is not good enough, beating the deadlines is my expectation.”
“Don’t give up, courage is my conviction.”
“We cannot change our Rulers, but we can change the way they Rule Us.”
My Hot Favourite quotes are :Number 1 ,6 and last.
Just comment if possible.
Updated at 28th August/Baroda

Practice

  
  Education
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One of the most important keys is to take action. You cannot be on the sidelines and expect to become an expert.

You can learn the basics of reading the tapes, reading of the charts, and deciphering the news. However, to be really good at it, it becomes an art. It is a skill that you can develop.

The things you need to keep in mind are:

    • Be in the game.
    • Keep track of your actions.
    • Examine you actions and see if they serve you or if they need any adjustments.
    • Have an expectation of winning, instead of not losing.

“To think is easy. To act is difficult. To act as one thinks is the most difficult of all.”

It's not the trade, it's the battle

  
  Education
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Too many traders believe that their last trade is a reflection of just how good of a trader they are (but they are the only ones who feel that way about themselves). This boils down to one word – expectation. If you expect to win all the time, or even the vast majority of the time, you’re setting yourself up for a lot of heartache. That frustration, though, is the very same force that will truly make your negative perception of yourself a reality. And even a good trade can be damaging if you let it warp your disciplined approach. The fact of the matter is that this is a game of odds, and should be played over a long period of time. Focus on the war – not the battle.

15 Mistakes by Traders

  
  Education
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1) Always wants to be in the game .. more time means less money
2) Wants money quickly .. you can’t control the market 
3) Finds it very inexact – which system – how much to risk – there are no hard and fast rules .. 
using a positive expectancy system with a clear edge will work out over a period of time if risk is proportionate
4) Finds it boring to trade small
Since no trade is a sure thing and even with positive expectation, it is possible to have a string of 10 consecutive lossees. It is important to risk less to give probabilities a chance to work in your favour
5) Wants immediate gratification – can’t wait
You don’t control the market
6) Keeps looking for new indicators/systems – the sure system
There is no definiteness..
7) Keeps trying new indicators
Nothing works all the time
8) Keeps switching between different techniques – he wants the techniques to work 100% of the time
Nothing works all the time.. Instead stick with a few proven systems and trade them all the time
9) Very Adventurous
You are here to make money and not for thrills
10) Wants to make big money overnight.. Multiple positions – excess leverage
Since you can never be sure if the next trade is a winner or if the next 10 trades are losers, why would you want to risk too much (more…)

Dormeier, Investing with Volume Analysis

  
  Education
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In addition to his “real” job managing money, Buff Pelz Dormeier develops technical indicators. He shares some of the fruits of his—and his noteworthy predecessors’—labor in Investing with Volume Analysis: Identify, Follow, and Profit from Trends (FT Press, 2011).

When I started reading this book I suspected that it would be like so many others: long on generalities and short on actionable ideas. The first hundred pages or so do indeed deal with general relationships between price and volume, and some of the material is familiar. But even the familiar material is often presented in an unusual way. Here’s one example.

Newton’s second law of motion, reinterpreted to apply to financial markets, analyzes “how much volume (force) is required to move a security (the object) a given distance (price change) at a given speed (acceleration/momentum). … Richard Wyckoff referred to this principle as the law of effort versus result, which asserts that the effort must be in proportion to the results.” (p. 47) As a corollary of this law, “if more volume (force) is required to produce less price change (acceleration), then the stock is becoming overly bought or sold.” (p. 85)

In apparent contradiction to Wyckoff’s law of effort is the rule of trend volume, according to which “more volume substantiates a stronger trend.” (p. 85) Can these two principles be reconciled? Dormeier suggests that they can, once we bring the notions of strong hands and weak hands into the equation. His discussion is too detailed to summarize here, but it is premised on how strong hands and weak hands play the game. As he writes, “Strong hands buy out of an expectation of capital appreciation. Weak hands buy out of greed and the fear of missing out on an opportunity. Weak hands sell from the fear of losing capital. Strong hands sell to reinvest in better opportunities (which does not have to be other equities).” (p. 87)

Dormeier really hits his stride when he turns “general volume principles into indicators with numerical values.” (p. 113) These indicators have a dual mandate—to lead price and to confirm price. But they don’t all work the same way; they are “tools, each of which is designed to explain a distinct piece of the volume puzzle.” (p. 117) (more…)

Have a Goal

  
  Education
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There is no reward without risk, and there should be no risk without reward.  Knowing this, there’s absolutely no reason why each trade shouldn’t have some favorable objective associated with it, so set a goal for each trade.  A realistic one that could quite feasibly be reached during the course of the trade.

Perhaps you’ll set a hard target and book profits once that level is reached regardless of how strong the momentum seems at the time.  Or perhaps you’ll plan to book partial profits at intervals along the way.

At the very least, having some idea of a level where your stock could move to is still going to help you formulate a game plan, even if you don’t choose to leave a resting order in that zone to book profits.

If you know your stop and you have some kind of upside expectation, then you’ll have a far better grasp of just what your risk is on a given trade and whether or not it should be taken.

15 Fundamentals To Win Stock Market Battle

  
  Education
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Gerald Loeb was a founding partner of E.F. Hutton, a renowned and successful Wall Street trader, and the author of the books The Battle For Investment Survival and The Battle For Stock Market Profits.

Mr. Loeb promoted a contrarian view of the market as too risky to hold stocks for the long term in direct contrast to many of his generation. At the time, many considered Loeb’s comments heresy to the buy and hold doctrine so common among many in the industry. While Loeb never had the opportunity to trade in an environment now ruled by quants, algorithmic trading and massive government intervention, his wisdom and insight is still applicable in today’s environment. After all, the more things change, the more they always stay the same!

Based on his two books, here are 15 fundamentals Loeb argues that you need to understand to win the battle not only against yourself, but also against the market:

  1. What everyone else knows is not worth knowing.
  2. Stocks are always way overvalued in a bull market and way undervalued in a bear market.
  3. The best stocks will always seem overpriced to the majority of investors.
  4. Expectation, not the news itself, is what moves the market.
  5. Three basis elements should be considered when evaluating a stock – 1) quality (fundamentals, liquidity, management), 2) price, and 3) trend (the most important).
  6. Stocks act like human beings and go through the same stages and phases as people do, including infancy, growth, maturity, and decline. The key in trading is to be able to recognize which stage the stock is in and to take advantage of that opportunity.
  7. Pyramid your buys – start with an initial position and then add to it only if the trade moves in your favor.
  8. The more experienced and successful you become, the less you should diversify.
  9. Traders must always resist the urge and temptation to change their strategies for each and every different market cycle.
  10. To succeed in trading you must 1) aim high, 2) control the risks, 3) be unafraid to keep uninvested reserves and 4) be patient.
  11. Successful traders are intelligent, they understand human psychology, they practice pure objectivity, and they have natural quickness.
  12. You must always trade with the actions of the market and not simply by how you might think the market should trade.
  13. Knowledge through experience is one trait that separates successful stock market speculators from everyone else.
  14. The stock market is more an art than a science and far more complex than most people understand.
  15. Always sell when you start patting yourself on the back for being smarter than the market. (more…)

Trading Sins

  
  Education
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  • over-trading
  • too much leverage
  • under capitalization
  • not adhering to stops
  • trading without a plan
  • paying short thrift to proper execution
  • assuming too much risk, not respecting it
  • trading products I don’t fully understand
  • competing where I have no edge
  • becoming too emotional
  • under-valuing the need for ample liquidity
  • misaligning time-frames (the time a trade typically needs to play out, versus my expectation/need for it conclude)

Successful traders fail all the time. In fact, many even fail a majority of the time. The difference is that their failures are not a failure to execute their plan. The failure rests in the fact that the expertly chosen trade turned out to be wrong (nobody can be right 100% of the time – except Congress). And when the trade was wrong, they took their loss which resulted in minimal damage to their portfolio and moved on to the next opportunity.

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