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India's GDP growth to crawl at 4.7% in second quarter: ZyFin

  
  Education
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Barely over a week ahead of release of the official GDP data, research and analytical firm ZyFin today estimated India’s economy to expand by 4.7% in the  second quarter of the current financial year. The methodology used by ZyFin is distinct  and it claimed that it uses variables  which are lead indicators to the official data. If GDP indeed grows by this rate, the Finance  Ministry’s hopes of  GDP growth between 5-5.5%  in 2013-14 may be dashed.  

 
In the first quarter of the current financial year, the GDP expanded at a four-year bottom of 4.4%. At that time, ZyFin had estimated a growth of 4.5%. 
 
“We still believe that the economy is in a crisis mode and much below what the economy used to grow at a pace of around 8%”, Debopam Chaudhuri, Vice President of Research and Development at Zyfin told Business Standard.
 
However, even if the economy grows at this pace, it would be at a year high — both according to official and ZyFin estimates. In the second quarter of 2012-13, the economic growth was higher at 5.2% as per official estimates and by ZyFin’s calculations it was 5.1%.
 
“While the estimates indicate a sluggish recovery, high inflation, weak consumer sentiment and a slowing services sector will constrain any sustained recovery”, said the firm. (more…)

The Wall Street Book Everyone Should Read

  
  Education
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In 1997, though, such arguments were pretty close to unheard of. Which is what makes Doug Henwood’s book Wall Street, published that year, such an amazing document. Along with explaining in clear if caustic terms how financial markets work, the book prefigures almost every criticism of the financial system that’s been levied since the crisis of 2008. An overleveraged housing market?Check. A link between financial sector growth and income inequality? Check. A natural tendency toward instability in financial markets? Check.

I don’t want to paint Henwood, who edits a newsletter called the Left Business Observer, hosts aweekly radio show, and knows more about economic indicators than anyone has a right to, as some kind of Nostradamus. In Wall Street he doesn’t so much make predictions as expose, in his crotchety, almost absurdly erudite way, the inconsistencies and contradictions in conventional views of how the financial world is supposed to work. (more…)

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