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Bull Markets Roll, Bear Markets Spike

  
  Education
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bullbear-ASRThere is an old trader’s saying that “bull markets roll, but bear markets spike.” This comes from the characteristic nature of the price action.

When a market is in bull mode, the majority of participants are happy and content (as the vast majority of investors are “long only”). The bull market thus “rolls” along, like undulating waves of grain, as more bullish investment capital flows into the market and positions are added to.

When a market is in bear mode, however, the majority of participants are annoyed or upset (because, again, those willing to go short are relatively few, while all the world is comfortable being long). The result is much more of a rough, jagged, against-the-grain type profile, in which extended declines are interspersed with surprisingly vicious rallies of short duration.

These mini-rallies are made even more vicious by the forced activity of “short covering,” in which bearish traders caught napping get “squeezed” out of their positions by the fighting spirit of the bulls.

Lying in wait at the top of a salmon-rich waterfall, then, is akin to waiting for that “spike” to occur before putting out a new bearish line. How do you identify such an occurrence? Simple:

  • Wait for your intended market to confirm a new downtrend (or break key support).
  • Wait for a countertrend rally – one that takes prices higher, but does not “clear” the bearish trend.
  • Enter upon reasonable evidence that the countertrend rally (or spike) has run its course.

Learn to trust yourself

  
  Education
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Trust your plan and trust your powers of judgment. Furthermore, keep this sense of confidence in yourself throughout the duration of your position in the market. Loosing confidence in yourself and your trading plan while holding a market position most often results in losses. If doubt is haunting you and you cannot control, it is best to simply offset your position and be clear of the market. Reversing or altering your trading plan in mid-trade is the last thing you should do.

The most important thing to remember about trading with confidence is this: No matter how diligent or thorough your research into a particular trade, you may still end up wrong about the direction of the market. This is true for everyone, nobody is right every time. You might be wrong this time, but your trading plan (with clearly defined loss thresholds) will save you. So, in the final analysis, it isn’t always being right about the direction of the market that will make you a success. Instead, it is having the discipline to stick to your trading plan that will.

Effects of the Full Moon

  
  Education
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The full moon was discussed many years ago on this site by Mr. McDonnell with respect to markets with results “consistent with randomness”. It would seem though that the day(s) after a full moon and particularly near the end of a difficult week might cause some sleep deficit effects to show in sensitive individuals–but perhaps extra coffee is used to counter such things.

“Blame Bad night’s Sleep on the Moon“:

Malcom von Schantz, a sleep and circadian researcher at the University of Surrey in the U.K., called the new findings “fascinating” because they run counter to the results of several other studies that failed to find a link between the moon and human behavior.

“Essentially, every report published to date has failed to show significant associations between the phase of the moon and any number of behavioral and physiological parameters,” von Schantz, who was not involved in the study, said in an email.”This is the very first report that suggests an association with one behavior, sleep, and of course it’s a behavior that in our species normally occurs at night.”

“Evidence That the Lunar Cycle Influences Human Sleep”:

We found that around full moon, electroencephalogram (EEG) delta activity during NREM sleep, an indicator of deep sleep, decreased by 30%, time to fall asleep increased by 5 min, and EEG-assessed total sleep duration was reduced by 20 min. These changes were associated with a decrease in subjective sleep quality and diminished endogenous melatonin levels. This is the first reliable evidence that a lunar rhythm can modulate sleep structure in humans when measured under the highly controlled conditions of a circadian laboratory study protocol without time cues.

Follow Trends

  
Analysis, Education, US Market
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From Richard Russell:

Primary trends can be likened to the power of the ocean tides. Build a sand castle against the ocean tide, and the first wave will wash your castle away. Build a cement wall against the tide, and in a matter of years the cement wall will be reduced to sand and rubble…primary trends, one way or another, go to completion. Or to put it another way, a primary trend will go to completion, no matter what..I said from the beginning, “let the bear market fully express itself.” One way or another it will express itself regardless of the wishes of Washington or the Fed or the Treasury. Interfering with the primary trend will just drag out the situation and make it worse — it will be turning a menace into a Frankenstein…According to Dow Theory, neither the depth nor the duration of a bear market can be predicted in advance. In this bear market, the Dow could fall to 4,000 or 400. I honestly don’t know the answer. In my experience, primary trend tend to carry further than anyone expects. I do know this — yesterday the following broke below their June lows — the Dow, the Transports, the NYSE Composite (which includes ALL NYSE stocks), the S&P Composite, the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. Any way you look at it, that’s bad action. Maybe just as bad, new lows on the NYSE surged to 164. Hundreds of stocks are breaking down, and even more are hovering just above their 52-week lows. The lower depths of this market are opening up like a giant graveyard. It is said that in a big bear market, stocks return to their original homes — Wall Street.”

Can it happen? Yes. Does anyone know for sure? No. Follow trends.

You Might be a Trend Following Trader if…..

  
  Education
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Trend Follower“Trend  followers use reactive technical analysis. Instead of trying to predict a market direction, their strategy is to react to the market’s movements whenever they occur. This enables them to focus on the market’s actual moves and not get emotionally involved with trying to predict direction or duration.” -Michael Covel/ Trend Following

You Might be a Trend Following Trader if…..

  1. …you love buying break outs above resistance and new all time highs.
  2. …big trends make you happy not angry.
  3. …you do not trade the concept of something being overbought you just use a trailing stop.
  4. …your trading decisions are based on what is happening now, not your opinions, your fears of what will happen, or your hopes of what will happen later.
  5. …you risk a little capital over and over again to make a lot of capital eventually.
  6. …you are great at letting your winners run.
  7. …trend followers don’t need a story they follow actual price action.
  8. …you look for longs in a bull market and shorts in a bear market you are likely a trend follower.
  9. …higher highs and higher lows are one of your best indicators to go long.
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