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Top 10 Lessons from the Lehman Collapse

Sunday is the five year anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman.  So what have we learnt?

1 – Bank executives lie…

…they also got paid huge amounts, weren’t as smart as they thought they were and those that ended up at the top tended to be deeply flawed individuals…

On Sept 10 in a conference call with investors, days before Lehman collapsed, Dick Fuld clearly stated to his shareholders that “no new capital was needed” and that “real estate and investments were properly valued”. Yet only five days later, Lehman filed for bankruptcy.

 

At a congressional Committee just a few weeks later, Dick Fuld was defiant. He stood by his “no new capital was needed” statement: “no sir, we did not mislead investors”. And he added that “we (made) disclosures that we believed were accurate”. If no new capital was needed why did Lehman go bust five days later? And if he didn’t know the financial position of Lehman what was he doing as CEO?

As part of the Congressional Committee hearings, Dick Fuld was allowed to make a presentation before he was questioned. These are his exact words as to the cause of Lehman’s demise:

“Naked short sellers targeted financial institutions and spread rumours and false information. The impact of this market manipulation became self-fulfilling as short sellers drove down the stock prices of financial firms. The ratings agencies lowered their ratings because lower stock prices made it harder to raise capital and (it) reduced financial flexibility. The downgrades in turn caused lenders and counter parties to reduce credit lines and then demand more collateral which increased liquidity pressures. At Lehman Bros the crisis in confidence that permeated the markets lead to an extraordinary run on the bank. In the end despite all of our efforts we were overwhelmed.” (more…)

BP downgraded to AA from AA+ by Fitch

The first of many to come? The outlook would suggest so, after Fitch cut BP’s credit rating in response to its Deepwater spill dilemmas on Thursday — watch negative.

As Fitch’s release suggests, it’s a further headache for BP:

Fitch Ratings-London-03 June 2010: Fitch Ratings has today downgraded BP plc’s (BP) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’, respectively, and placed the ratings on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). At the same time, Fitch has affirmed BP’s Short-term IDR at ‘F1+’. The ratings of BP Capital Markets plc’s senior unsecured issues, which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by BP, have been downgraded to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’ and placed on RWN. BP Capital Markets is BP’s wholly-owned indirect subsidiary.

The downgrade of BP’s ratings reflects Fitch’s opinion that risks to both BP’s business and financial profile continue to increase following the Deepwater Horizon accident in the US Gulf of Mexico. The company has so far repeatedly failed to stop the resultant oil leak and has instead reverted to containment methods that are yet to be fully implemented and are subject to potential weather related disruption. Fitch notes that the drilling of relief wells also poses risks and additional time may be required for them to be fully effective. An additional factor supporting the downgrade is the 1 June 2010 announcement by US Attorney General, Eric Holder, that both a criminal and civil investigation has opened with respect to the oil spill that could have potential negative implications for BP’s financial profile. (more…)

What banks will be burned by Greece ?

GreeceflagAt end-Q3 foreigners held EUR216bn of Greek government debt (72.3% of the total market, 90.2% of GDP), having doubled their position since end-04. Given recent downgrades and another round of revisions to budget data from previous years, a sharp slowdown or even reversal of inflows from foreigners into the local debt market has become an increasing risk.”

Read the full story on FT Alphaville’s blog, by Tracy Alloway

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