Archives of “Donald Trump 2016 presidential campaign” tag

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Trump: China raided our factories and gutted our industries

  
  Analysis
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Trump says he will take action against China

Trump says he will take action against China
Strong comments to start, more to come. He brought Pompeo and Mnuchin, which is a hint of something big coming.
  • Chinese government has continually violated its promises to us
  • China unlawfully claimed territory in Pacific ocean
  • China’s coverup of the Wuhan virus allowed it to spread all over the world
We’re still in the preamble but the tough talk has the market worried.
  • We will be terminating our relationship with the WHO, redirect elsewhere
That’s not a factor for markets.
  • Will issue proclamation on US university research
  • Will ask for study to protect US investors (presumably from investing in Chinese stocks)
This was all rumored and isn’t a big deal.
  • Have started the process of eliminated policy exemptions that give Hong Kong special treatment
  • Directing his administration to “begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment” under a “full range” of agreements, from extradition to trade to technology. (Congress has much of this power)
  • Will sanction directly or indirectly individuals involved in suppressing Hong Kong
All this was rumored or reported.
Stocks go positive.

US-China trade war. War of words heating up – a reminder of where tariffs are

  
  Analysis
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US President Trump and others in his administration have once again been ramping up anti-China rhetoric.

Which has brought the trade war back into focus. Currently we are at a ‘phase 1’ agreement (of many more to come potentially, phase 1 barely scratched the surface). With Trump’s blaming China, for pretty much anything and everything it seems, it raises the prospect of little progress ahead on trade issues. And with the US election to come in November its likely Trump will continue to aim belligerence at China.
Via the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) a representation of where tariffs are, in summary:
US President Trump and others in his administration have once again been ramping up anti-China rhetoric.
Keep on eye out for progress, though I do not expect any. Escalation of the trade war is a negative for ‘risk’ (we saw this last week with a drop in, for example, the AUD) as Trump’s bellicose comments gained market attention once again.

US President Trump interview: Trade deal with China has been upset very badly

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump interview with Reuters

  • says China “will do anything they can to have me lose” 2020 election
  • says looking at different options in terms of consequences for China for its handling of coronavirus crisis, says I can do a lot
  • says trade deal with China has been “upset very badly” by the coronavirus
  • says South Korea has agreed to pay united states a lot of money for defense cooperation
  • says he does not see 2020 election as a referendum on his handling of virus
  • says does not believe polls showing Biden ahead
Main points summary via Reuters.
The comments on possible retaliation against China do not read as encouraging for further trade talks. AUD down a few tics.
Trump interview with Reuters 

US President Trump says he has taken the coronavirus COVID-19 test

  
  Analysis
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Fox report Trump was tested, results are expected within 48 hours

  • “I decided I should based on the press conference yesterday people were asking that I take the test.”
Trump’s job has brought him into close contact with people confirmed as having the virus so this test is a wise step.
What we have seen so far from the progression of the infection around the globe is older people seem particularly vulnerable to the more severe impacts of the virus, along with those people with existing respiratory issues.
Fox report Trump was tested, results are expected within 48 hours

US President Trump is to sign the new NAFTA (USMCA) next week – Wednesday

  
Analysis, Politics
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Reuters citing an unnamed official, Trump to sign the deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada on Wednesday during a ceremony at the White House

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This United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaces NAFTA
It is yet to be formally approved by Canada.
The delay from CAD may be donut related? (kidding)
Reuters citing an unnamed official, Trump to sign the deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada on Wednesday during a ceremony at the White House

Trump: US in final throes of reaching a trade deal with China

  
Analysis, Politics
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Positive comments

Reuters is carrying comments from Trump:
  • Trump says in final throes on reaching trade deal with CHina
  • Trump says US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong
This is a slightly different language. It’s the first time in a few days the President has been so optimistic.
I’m reminded that the previous line was that they were in the ‘short strokes’. The modest market reaction suggests that this kind of talk isn’t enough alone to boost sentiment.

Trump invites southeast Asian leaders to US for special summit

  
  Analysis
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Trump makes a move

The geographical battleground of the trade war is in southeast Asia.
It’s an area where China is trying to expand and solidify ties while the US is trying to beat back Beijing. There’s a military component as well as China tries to dominate the South China Sea.
This weekend, Trump skipped the ASEAN summit, which is attempting to finalize the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — a massive trade deal.
Trump’s move to invite Southeast Asian leaders will undoubtedly raise eyebrows in Beijing and further convince leaders there that the Phase One deal will probably only be a ceasefire and that the US is planning to curb China’s growth and influence.

Trump will make a statement on Syria conflict at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump comments to come later

Trump has been tweeting for the past hour with the usual stuff on impeachment and whatever else Fox Business is talking about.
Big success on the Turkey/Syria Border. Safe Zone created! Ceasefire has held and combat missions have ended. Kurds are safe and have worked very nicely with us. Captured ISIS prisoners secured. I will be making a statement at 11:00 A.M. from the White House. Thank you!
Expect the statement to be along those lines but there is always a high risk of Trump going off-script.

Trump blames the stock market decline on ‘impeachment nonsense’

  
Analysis, US Market
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Trump turns his eye away from the Fed

He’s not entirely wrong, the market didn’t like the impeachment headlines when they first hit. But I’d argue that’s because impeachment is more likely to make him erratic and reactionary, if not dangerous.
As for what’s caused the latest leg of US stock market selling, allow me to draw some conclusions:
Trump turns his eye away from the Fed
Here’s his tweet:
All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
However I think in the big picture, you’re going to have a US election in 13 months. How do you have any confidence in stocks on a Warren vs Trump election? That’s a binary outcome.
If the impeachment talk had any bearing, it was because it hurt Biden as much as Trump and that solidified Warren’s lead. She went from +200K in betting odds on Sept 12 to +110 now.

Pres. Trump: China agricultural purchases is not enough

  
  Analysis
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President Trump speaking at a press conference with Australia’s prime minister

  • China agricultural purchases is not enough
  • looking for complete deal with China
  • he does not need a trade yield before the 2020 election
  • China is being affected very badly US economy is very strong
  • China is eating the tariffs
  • Trump has an amazing relationship with Xi, but is having a little spat
  • signing USMCA is very important for the country
  • Australia will be a big beneficiary of China deal
  • expects sanctions to work on Iran
  • military option would work but should never have to use it
  • Iran has a lot of self-made problems
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