Archives of “disaster” tag

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Laws of Speculation

  
  Education
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1. Never Overtrade. To take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. With such an interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.

2. Never “Double Up”; that is, never completely and at once reverse a position. Being “long,” for instance, do not “sell out” and go as much “short.” This may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous, for should the market begin again to advance, the mind reverts to its original opinion and the speculator “covers up” and “goes long” again. Should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. The change in the original position should have been made moderately, cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind.

3. “Run Quickly,” or not at all; that is to say, act promptly at the first approach of danger, but failing to do this until others see the danger, hold on or close out part of the “interest.”

4. Another rule is, when doubtful, reduce the amount of the interest; for either the mind is not satisfied with the position taken, or the interest is too large for safety. One man told another that he could not sleep on account of his position in the market: his friend judiciously and laconically replied: “Sell down to a sleeping point.”

Niederhoffer on making errors

  
  Education
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As a squash player, I was gifted. I had all the right things going for me. I practiced. I was very good with the racket, and I had tremendous anticipation. But I tended to play an errorless game by hitting a slice on my backhand, which took a lot of power off the ball. That wasn’t a disaster, but it was definitely a weakness in my game. My opponents always used to say that on a good day they could beat me, because they could hit more spectacular shots than me. But they never did. I went for about 10 years without losing a game, except to [the great Pakistani squash player] Sharif Kahn. He made about six, seven errors a game—but he also made eight or nine winners. I would make about zero errors per game but only one or two winners. He had the edge on me about 10-4, and I regret that I was never willing to accept the risky shots and confrontations, never willing to play a more error-full game.

In my market career, I took too many risks. In my squash career, I didn’t take enough.

I wish I had applied my squash methods to my speculating. I’d be a very wealthy man if I had.

An Hour With Arnold Palmer

  
  Education
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“It is deceptively simple, endlessly complicated, a child can play it well, and a grown man can never master it. Any single round of it is full of unexpected triumphs and perfect shots that end in disaster. It is almost a science, yet it is a puzzle without an answer. It is gratifying and tantalizing, precise and unpredictable. It requires complete concentration and total relaxation. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time, rewarding and maddening and it is without doubt, the greatest game mankind has ever invented.” – Arnold Palmer

What a wonderful quote about the game of golf. Although to a lesser extent, the same things can be said about trading as anyone who trades every day in the trenches will tell you.

I was reminded about this perspective this weekend when watching an hour interview Charlie Rose recently conducted with Mr. Palmer. Many people don’t know this, but it was an biography of Arnold Palmer that I read as a child which originally sparked my interest in taking up the game. So, all of these years of both frustration and incredible enjoyment, I owe directly to Mr. Palmer.

Now in the twilight of his years, I found this recent interview really enjoyable particularly after the 30 minute mark. If you have an opportunity to watch this, I thinkhis advice about developing a system is so very important especially for new traders and investors as well as what the discussion after that about what it takes to win. Much like the quote above, the perspectives are priceless. Even if you don’t play golf or even hate the game, don’t miss this interview!

Click Below Link and Enjoy

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11823

Book Review: Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster

  
  Education
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I’ve recently enjoyed reading Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street’s Largest Hedge Fund Disaster, the story of how Amaranth blew up. It’s essentially a story of one man who was successful for a while and took on unbelievable amounts of risk trading natural gas futures while all of his supervisors, mostly the fund’s owner but some others as well lost all control or even desire for control. The book greatly details the actual trades and talks about many related personages, but it left me puzzled about how the trader who was mostly responsible for this disaster lasted this long. He had made a huge amount of money prior to blowing up, and even though he appeared to be quite intelligent the reasoning behind his trades are either inadequately or perhaps truthfully described as being close to random. He suddenly takes a liking to certain types of spreads and just bets on them evidently without much more than a seemingly unjustified belief that they will widen.

At some point he essentially became the market and and had to keep up the spreads by continuous buying until the fund blew up. The main trader and some others are portrayed as sociopathic degenerates driven by irrational beliefs as well as a strong desire to win at all costs. I would be interested to hear some energy trader’s or any commodity trader’s opinion about the book.

Greed

  
  Education
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 Small excerpt is from the book: ‘Wall Street. Its Mysteries Revealed: Its Secrets Exposed’ published in New York, 1921 by William C. Moore. The book contains short and to the point chapters like: ‘The crowd mind’, ‘How the public speculates’, ‘Mental suggestion’ and‘Market advice’ to name but a few. I chose the one on ‘Greed’ as I consider it great advice and timeless wisdom. Enjoy.

Greed p. 123-124

An avaricious or keen desire for profits is one of the most prevalent causes of failure inspeculation. This weakness is general among traders. They desire “just a little more ” profit. If the stock or commodity bought advances, then that’s proof to them that it will advance further and so they hang on. They usually overstay and thus miss their market. If they fail to obtain the top price and it reacts, then they assure or console themselves by the expression: “Oh, it will come back.” It may “come back” but often it does not, and instead, declines to below the purchase price and frequently results in a loss. The same observations apply to a short sale for a further anticipated decline. It is a good policy to be satisfied with a reasonable profit and be willing to leave some for the other fellow. The market is always there and other opportunities for making profits will present themselves while the greedy trader is waiting to get the last eighth.

Greed leads to disaster in another way. A speculator has started in to buy at the inception of a bull movement. He makes money. The more he makes, the more avaricious he becomes as the market moves forward. His confidence in himself increases until he develops a mental state known in the vernacular as “big head” or “swelled head”. He now has unbounded confidence in himself and “plays the limit”. Soon thereafter the market culminates at the top and the trend reverses, but Mr. Swelled Head is ignorant of this, so continues to buy on set-backs instead of selling on rallies. A drastic slump follows and Mr. B.H. goes to the scrap pile – BUSTED.

New Trading Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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Play to win, not for a score. Traders who desire only to make money versus simply trying to trade well and their best ability will struggle. This is a money-focused game, but trading well requires you to focus on goals beyond the money to achieve the performance you really desire.

Recognize a real gamble. When you are trading well, take the possibility of a major loss out of the equation whenever you can. It is true, when we are the most vulnerable is when everything is going right and it seems like we can do no wrong. Moreover, there are times to make the big aggressive trade, and times when doing so is foolhardy. Recognizing the difference is so very important.

Root hard for yourself. When everything goes wrong, the quickest way to turn it around is to force yourself to be optimistic and enthusiastic. Even after making the so-so trades which only pay out puny returns, you’ve got to pat yourself on the back and slowly gain your confidence back. confidence is everything in trading and you need a steady supply of reassuring confidence to trade at your very best.

Forget the holes up ahead. Focus on today’s trade, not the next one or the one you think you see is falling into place weeks from now. As Hunter recommends, “You really have to stay in the present.” Traders often let big picture themes and views prevent them from seeing setups that occur daily. This tunnel vision can really limit overall returns. Find the next trade, focus on that trade, and after that, move to the next. Don’t let issues you see so far down the road prevent you from making profits today.

The right way to play safe. If you play chicken, you’ll invite bad trades and disaster. As others have said, you’ve always got to trade to win, instead of trading not to lose. There’s a tremendous difference. I know traders who try to hedge every trade they make and ultimately don’t achieve the returns they should. If your approach is sound, hedging should only be a tool to use sparingly, not as an entire strategy substitute or for protecting your ego when you are wrong.

Expect To Be Wrong

  
  Education
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The reason I bring this up was to share with you two reactions I got when describing these recent trades and cash holdings. I had two separate conversations in July — one with a well known Trader, the other with a Fund Manager (known in the industry, but not a household name) — about our posture prior to yesterday’s drop.

The two responses were polar opposites, 180 degree apart.

The trader respected the discipline of honoring stop losses. Good traders know that opportunistic speculation is a process. Ignore any one single outcome, focus on the methodology that can consistently avoid catastrophic losses, manage risk, preserve capital. A good process can be replicated, a random spin of the wheel cannot.

The fund manager, who was having a decent year being long high vol names (at least before Wednesday), was having none of it. “Stops are for losers” is a quote I shall long remember (and email him after he blows up). Apparently, real men have the courage of their convictions.

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Rather than fight our foibles, people should admit this error stream is real, and repair the errors of our ways as soon as we discover them. I have noticed over the years the difficulty some people have in cutting losses, admitting an error, and moving on. Way back in 2005, I wrote a piece advising investors that they should Expect to Be Wrong (originally published 04/05/05). I noted that “I am rather frequently — and on occasion, quite spectacularly — wrong.” However, if we expect to be wrong, then there will be no ego tied up in admitting the error, honoring the stop loss, and selling out the loser — and preserving the capital.

This is a recipe for investing disaster. We humans make 6 billion errors per day, at the very least. The biggest one is not acknowledging this simple truism.

Patience, Preparation and Performance

  
  Education
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Everything is difficult before it becomes easy.

With the current volatility of the financial markets, it is extremely important that each of us resolve to be patient in our decisions and not make snap judgments. These can create future disaster.

The most successful individuals around the world have a foundation of processes that they utilize consistently, no matter whether the markets are trending with clear direction or being extremely volatile.

Each of us needs to be patient and allow the trading plans that we use to provide points of execution for trades. We need to be prepared for any and all movements in the market, yet stay committed to our plan and then perform with a self-confidence that ensures that we do not stray away from the steps of our plan.

Patience, preparation and performance surrounded by a solid trading plan along with money and risk management will produce the highest probability for profitable success.

Preparation combined with Opportunity creates a new word I would like to give to you — Prepartunity. Every day provides new opportunities for us. If we are prepared then we will receive the highest results possible.

If You’re Good At Something Never Do It For Free

  
  Education
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Seth Godin writes:

I had a college professor who did engineering consulting. A brand new office tower in Boston had a serious problem–there was a brown stain coming through the drywall, (all of the drywall) no matter how much stain killer they used. In a forty story building, if you have to rip out all the drywall, this is a multi-million dollar disaster. They had exhausted all possibilities and were a day away from tearing out everything and taking a loss. They hired Henry in a last-ditch effort to solve the problem. He looked at the walls and said, “I think I can work out a solution, but it will cost you $45,000 if I succeed.” They instantly signed on, because if he succeeded, the project would be saved. Henry asked for a pencil and paper and wrote the name of a common hardware store chemical and handed it to them. “Here, this will work.” And then he billed them $45,000. That’s quite an hourly wage. It’s also quite a bargain.

Everyday ,Iam receiving mails that why I take fees or Subscription* charges. Godin’s quote came to mind. Will flesh this out further in the days to come, but for now I thought his wisdom was appropriate.

-Fees/Subscription* :90% goes to Charity only.

Learning

  
  Education
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Learning the technical aspects of trading and the markets takes time and what you think you know after 1,2, 3 years is nothing. Really, nothing. As the years roll by and you accumulate 1000’s of hours of seat time honing your edge and system you get to learn a few things about yourself as well. This is where you become a trader. And if you are humble, the learning never stops. To think otherwise is a recipe for disaster.

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