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FOMC central tendencies and dot plot for projected rates. Fed projects rates to remain at current levels through 2022.

  
Analysis, Economy
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Central tendencies and dot plot for June 2020

The last time the central tendencies and dot plot was released was way back in December 2019.  At that time, the world was different place.

At the time in December, the Central tendencies saw 2020 numbers at:
  • GDP 2.2%
  • unemployment rate 3.5%
  • PCE inflation 1.9%
The 2021 projections saw:
  • GDP 1.9%
  • unemployment 3.6%
  • PCE inflation 2.0%
The projection for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2020 was 1.6%.  For 2021 the rate rose to at 1.9% with the 2022 rate at 2.1%.
The current median estimate for central tendencies shows 2020 numbers at:
  • GDP -6.5%
  • unemployment 9.3%
  • PCE inflation 0.8%
The projections for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2020 comes in at 0.1%. For 2021 the rate targets 0.1% with the 2022 rate targeted also at 0.1%.
Below is the chart of central tendencies from the Federal Reserve
Central tendencies
Below is the dot plot with all participants keeping the rate at 0.1%.  In 2022, there are two voting members to forecast day higher rate.  The market was looking for the Fed to keep rates low through 2022
Dot plot

Japan headline inflation data for October misses, core-core beats

  
Analysis, Economy
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The headlines National CPI comes in at 0.2% y/y, a “miss” on estimates.

  • expected 0.3%, prior was 0.2%
National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food is 04% y/y
  • expected 0.4%, prior was 0.3%
National CPI excluding Food, Energy is 0.7% y/y a “beat” on estimates
  • expected 0.6 %, prior was 0.5%
I generally do not like describing CPI data in terms of misses and beats but made an ex[pcetion today.
The ‘core-core’ referred to is CPI excluding Food & Energy, this is the closest measure to what is termed ‘core’ CPI in the US. As you can see, slightly above the median consensus. While well short of the 2% BOJ target, a tiny bit of good news for the Bank.
Yen doing pretty much nothing on the data release. As is usual.
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