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Trends- Reversals- Cycles

Many assume the continuation of trends beyond their turning points. Such thinking is evident in the news. The opposite view is the statistical lack of trends and the assumption of reversion to the mean. However trends exist in a random or due to macro effect such as government (mis)policy or herding, none of which can be ignored except to one’s detriment. The pure quantification of price makes discernment of the change of cycles hard to see except in retrospect, thus other forward and current input seem worthy to consider. There are tells to macro effects if they can be discerned. The random trends also may have their characteristics. Philosophers like to define their terms, and traders also need to define their time frames to clearly state the issues. This seems to be a common point of misunderstanding in debates on these issues.

 

4 Market Principals

4-pThere are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings.
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!

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