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Trends- Reversals- Cycles

Many assume the continuation of trends beyond their turning points. Such thinking is evident in the news. The opposite view is the statistical lack of trends and the assumption of reversion to the mean. However trends exist in a random or due to macro effect such as government (mis)policy or herding, none of which can be ignored except to one’s detriment. The pure quantification of price makes discernment of the change of cycles hard to see except in retrospect, thus other forward and current input seem worthy to consider. There are tells to macro effects if they can be discerned. The random trends also may have their characteristics. Philosophers like to define their terms, and traders also need to define their time frames to clearly state the issues. This seems to be a common point of misunderstanding in debates on these issues.

 

Against Quantification

Reading through Linchpin by Seth Godin advocates getting away from the quantified.

We measure the quantified because we can. But we should create the unquantified because it’s so rare. If you can quantify it, then probably someone before you figured out a why to grind it out. And if you can grind it out, someone can grind it out cheaper than you can. On the other hand, the really valuable stuff, the stuff we pay a lot for, is unquantified. Things like creating joy or security or happiness. No easy measurements for those, thus they are art, and art is always worth more than the predicted.