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Why do 90% get washed out?

They say that 90% or more of new traders get washed out of the market in six months – why would that be? I just had an insight into my own current state and the implications of it long term if it were left as an unconscious process…

The fact is that learning to trade is hard; very hard – but on top of that, it is a zero feedback learning curve. You don’t get marked or a pat on the back for your efforts; the only feedback you get is:

You lose…
You lose…
You lose…

You think you are building up knowledge and skill in your conscious mind, but unbeknownst to you, in the dark invisible depths of your subconscious, you are slowly training yourself to HATE TRADING…

It is like constantly sticking your hand in the fire and going “Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!”

Your interest and passion for it is being quietly eroded. There eventually comes a day where you would rather do something else than trade that day; your instincts are telling you to avoid the pain.

It eventually becomes a DRAG

Attracted by more pleasurable pursuits you realize one day that you haven’t traded for a week or two, but the very thought of it gives you a pain in the solar plexus… You brush the whole thing aside as an old hobby that was a large expensive waste of time.

You’ve been washed out. You are a statistic, but by now you couldn’t care less!

Acting On Impulse

Why do so many traders abandon their trading plan? Is it their personality, an inherent pitfall of the trading profession, or temporary insanity? A host of factors may contribute to a lack of discipline. Depending on your personality, background, training, and experience with the markets, you may have trouble reigning in your tendency to act on impulse.

For some people, impulsivity is in their nature. They have trouble focusing their attention. They are easily bored. Seeking out quick thrills relieves the tedium of life. For others, impulsivity is related to emotionality. Some people have so much trouble controlling their emotions that they react impulsively out of frustration. Minor setbacks are inevitable in the trading arena. When the extremely emotional trader encounters one of these setbacks, he or she becomes overly agitated, and may close a position early, or in a fit of confusion, make a major trading blunder that can only be remedied by closing the position.

That said, any trader can act impulsively at times. There are many situational factors that contribute to impulsivity. Research has shown, for example, that when people are tired, they have difficulty focusing their attention. As much as part of your conscious mind cares about sticking with your trading plan, your unconscious mind thinks, “Who cares? I want to take a break.” Psychological resources are limited. When you push yourself to the limits, you will have trouble focusing on your ongoing experience, concentrating on your trading plan, and sticking to it. (more…)

Uncertainty in Trading

You just have to deal with it. But there are times where your conviction levels go through the roof. You know damned well that should should be trading. You are comfortable with what you see. Are you taking action?
 
There are other times where your
conviction level is low, or not there at all. There is a split second cue in the back of your brain that says “I don’t know what is going on here”. Are you listening to it and backing off? Or are you letting your conscious mind, emotions/greed etc. take over?
The probability for a successful outcome shares a positive correlation with what level your ‘conviction meter’ is. If its high, your chances of a successful outcome increase. If low, you can imagine just as poor of a result.
Listen to your level of conviction. If it is strong, act upon it. If weak or in question, don’t do anything at all. Typically, you have a short window of opportunity to decide where you stand. Take advantage of it.
 
 
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