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A Few Notes From Adam Grimes

Adam Grimes (Chief Investment Officer of Waverly Advisors) prefaces his 2012 book, The Art and Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action, and Trading Strategies, by stating: “This book…offers a comprehensive approach to the problems of technically motivated, directional trading. …Trading is hard. Markets are extremely competitive. They are usually very close to efficient and most observed price movements are random. It is therefore exceedingly difficult to derive a method that makes superior risk-adjusted returns, and it is even more difficult to successfully apply such a method in actual practice. Last, it is essential to have a verifiable edge in the markets–otherwise no consistent profits are possible. This approach sets this work apart from the majority of trading books published, which suggest that simple patterns and proper psychology can lead a trader to impressive profits. Perhaps this is possible, but I have never seen it work in actual practice. …The self-directed trader will find many sections specifically addressed to the struggles he or she faces, and to the errors he or she is likely to make along the way. …[Institutional] traders will also find new perspectives on risk management, position sizing, and pattern analysis that may be able to inform their work in different areas.” Using example charts for many assets from different times over different time frames and from different markets, he concludes that:

From Chapter 1, “The Trader’s Edge” (Page 7): “Every edge we have, as technical traders, comes from an imbalance of buying and selling pressure. …we do not trade patterns in the market–we trade the underlying imbalances that create those patterns.”

From Chapter 2, “The Market Cycle and the Four Trades” (Page 45): “When buying pressure seems to be strongest, the end of the uptrend is often near. When the sellers seem to be decisively winning the battle, the stage is set for a reversal into an uptrend. This is why it is so important for traders to learn to stand apart from the crowd, and the only way to do this is to understand the actions and emotions of that market crowd.”

From Chapter 3, “On Trends” (Page 95): “…many outstanding trades come in trending environments. Market structure in trends is often driven by a strong imbalance of buying and selling pressure, it is often easy to define risk points for trades, and some of the cleanest, easiest trades come from trends. However, markets do not always trend.” (more…)

9 Trading Wisdom for Traders

NEVER THROW MORE MONEY AFTER A LOSING POSITION

Never add to a losing position under any circumstances. Throwing more money at a losing trade will burn your capital faster than you can imagine. This is the main contributor that eliminates losing investors from the trading game. The only thing that happens when you buy more of a losing position is that your net worth declines. You hope that it may turn around eventually and your decision to buy will prove fortuitous. For every example of a fortune from an unexpected turnaround, there are ten examples of bleak outcomes.  

 

ALWAYS INVEST ON THE WINNING SIDE

Do not worry about trading on the bullish or bearish side, but always trade on the winning side. This is a brilliant piece of wisdom. Learn to master the art and science of investing on the winning side. You should be willing to change sides immediately when one side has gained the upper hand. You cannot stay rigid in your positions because the market is dynamic. Keep a close eye to see if the facts have changed regarding the company. If the facts have changed, you must change.

 

DO NOT HANG ONTO A LOSING POSITION

Failure to admit you were wrong and holding onto losing positions will cost you money. Watching your capital deplete in front of your eyes is de-motivating and mentally exhausting. However, your mind will be even more exhausted if you hold onto a losing trade. You will get more and more fearful with each passing minute, day and week.

In the meantime, you are missing out on a treasure chest of potentially profitable stocks that are waiting to make you money. Bad decisions are valuable sources of learning to master your trading technique. Cut your losses, adapt your trading strategy to include your new knowledge, and search for stocks that will make you money. In the stock market, time is money; there is no time to watch your stock fall all the way to the bottom. (more…)

Poker and Trading…Some Rules Applicable to Both.

Pay Attention…and It Will Pay You. Concentrate on everything when you are playing/trading. Watch and listen; remember to do both and relate the two.

Understand When to Play Aggressively…It’s the Winning Way. Don’t be a tight or a loose player/trader; be a solid one and recognize when it is time to press your bets/positions. To attain superior returns in poker and investing over the long run, grind it out (in stocks until you are up 30%-40%, and then if you have convictions, go for a 100% year). If you can avoid losing and put together a few 100% years, you can achieve outstanding long-term investment performance.

Tells: Look For Them and You Will Find Them. Poker players and stock markets have tells — giveaway moves that are very revealing. Learn to recognize them. History is your textbook.

ESP…It’s a Jellyroll. In those rare instances when all your card knowledge and market judgment/knowledge leaves you in doubt, go with your strong feelings and not against it.

Honor: A Gambler/Trader’s Ace-in-the-Hole. A good reputation and respect from others will put you in good stead.

Be as Competitive as You Can Be. Go into a poker game and into a trade with the idea of completely destroying your opponent or scoring a major investment coup. If you win a pot or make a successful trade, nearly always play the next pot or make the next trade shortly thereafter — within reason. Although the cards and trades might break even in the long run, rushes do happen and momentum often feeds upon itself. When you earn the right to be aggressive, you should be aggressive. When one has a tremendous conviction in a poker hand or trade, you have to go for the jugular.

Art and Science…It takes Both. Both activities are more art than science — that’s why they are so difficult to master. Knowing what to do is about 10% of the game. Knowing how to do it is the other 90%.

Money Management. The same sound principles of money control apply to the business of tournament/professional poker and to successful investing. The way to build long-term returns or poker winnings is through preservation of capital and home runs.

The Important Twins of Poker/Investing, Patience and Staying Power. Come to the poker table or to the markets with enough time to stay and play for a while.

Alertness is a Key. You must stay alert at all times.

So is Discipline.

Never Let Your Mind Dwell on Personal Problems. Never play/trade when you are upset. Make a conscious and constant effort to discover any leaks in your play, and then eliminate them.

Control Your Emotions. Allowing your confidence to be shaken can turn a simple losing streak into a terrible case of going bad. Keep your emotions in check. When you lose a pot or make a poor investment decision, get up, walk around the chair or take some deep breaths. Don’t lose your poise. If a trade or poker hand does not work out, walk away from the position/hand. Be confident enough about your ability to win afterwards.

Schwager’s New Hedge Market Wizards Book w/ Dalio, Thorp, Woodriff

Looks like Schwager is putting out a new version of his famous Market Wizards series.  Personally I’d like to see a “where are they now” from the past few books. (His other books here.)
Hedge Fund Market Wizards
Table of Contents
Introduction
Part I: Macro Men
Chapter 1 Colm O’Shea: Knowing When It’s Raining
Chapter 2 Ray Dalio: The Man Who Loves Mistakes
Chapter 3 Scott Ramsey: Low-Risk Futures Trader
Chapter 4 Jamie Mai: Seeking Asymmetry
Chapter 5 Jaffray Woodriff: The Third Way
Part II: Multi
Chapter 6 Edward Thorp: The Innovator
Chapter 7 Larry Benedict: Beyond Three Strikes
Chapter 8 Michael Platt: The Art and Science of Risk Control
Part III: Equity
Chapter 9 Steve Clark: Do more of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t
Chapter 10 Martin Taylor: The Tsar Has No Clothes
Chapter 11 Tom Claugus: A Change of Plans
Chapter 12 Joe Vidich: Harvesting Losses
Chapter 13 Kevin Daly: Who Is Warren Buffett?
Chapter 14 Jimmy Balodimas: Stepping in Front of Freight Trains
Chapter 15 Joel Greenblatt: The Magic Formula
Conclusion 40 Market Wizard Lessons
Appendix 1 The Gain to Pain Ratio
Appendix 2 TITLE TK

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