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Sharpen Your Trading With Occam's Razor

  
  Education
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 Would you believe that a 14th century priest, and his concepts, can help make you a better trader?  Well, English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham really can make you a better trader.


Ockham developed the concept commonly referred to as Occam’s Razor.  Simply put, this principle favors the simple over the complex, when there is a choice to be made, or a path to be followed.


How can this apply to trading? A few different ways.


First, if you are a system trader, perhaps your approach has too many rules, too many parameters, or too much optimizing.  While every parameter you add might make your system better historically, the more parameters you have, the less prone the system is to work going forward.  Simpler concepts and simple rules tend to be based on fundamental market principles – ones that aren’t as likely to change.


Second, if you are a discretionary trader, you might trade off of news reports from Blue Channels  and multiple other sources.  Multiple news sources might give you more data, but does it really give you more knowledge?  You might find that with multiple, conflicting pieces of information, you actually can’t trade at all – rather, you are a victim of “analysis paralysis.”


Third, maybe your trading office looks like the control room for the Space Shuttle. If you try to trade off all of the information shown on all the screens, you might just find yourself overwhelmed.  It is better to stick to a few monitors of information, and know that information very well.  The best traders don’t need a dozen monitors to trade well – usually 1 or 2 monitors is plenty.


Many new traders tend to think that that more complicated they make trading, the easier it will be to “solve” the markets.  Instead, they should be listening to William of Ockham, and making things simpler.  Simple, done correctly, can lead to more profits, and stand the test of time better than complicated approaches.

What's the difference between winning traders and losing traders?

  
  Education
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Well, first, there are a few similarities. Both are completely consumed by the idea of trading. The winners as well as losers have committed to doing this, and have no intention of ‘going back’. This same black-and-white mentality was evident in their personal lives too. But what about the differences? Here’s what Williams observed:

The losing traders have unrealistic expectations about the kind of profits they can make, typically shooting too high. They also debate with themselves before taking a trade, and even dwell on a trade well after it’s closed out. But the one big thing Williams noticed about this group was that they paid little attention to money management (i.e. defense).And the winners? This group has an intense focus on money management, and will voluntarily exit a trade if it’s not moving – even if it’s not losing money at that time! There is also very little internal dialogue about trade selection and trade management; this group just takes action instead of suffering analysis paralysis. Finally, the winning traders focused their attention on a small niche in the market or a few techniques, rather than trying to be able to do everything. Hopefully the second description fits you a little better, but if the first one seems a little too familiar, you now at least know how to start getting past that barrier.

What's the difference between winning traders and losing traders?

  
  Education
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Well, first, there are a few similarities. Both are completely consumed by the idea of trading. The winners as well as losers have committed to doing this, and have no intention of ‘going back’. This same black-and-white mentality was evident in their personal lives too. But what about the differences? Here’s what Williams observed:

The losing traders have unrealistic expectations about the kind of profits they can make, typically shooting too high. They also debate with themselves before taking a trade, and even dwell on a trade well after it’s closed out. But the one big thing Williams noticed about this group was that they paid little attention to money management (i.e. defense).And the winners? This group has an intense focus on money management, and will voluntarily exit a trade if it’s not moving – even if it’s not losing money at that time! There is also very little internal dialogue about trade selection and trade management; this group just takes action instead of suffering analysis paralysis. Finally, the winning traders focused their attention on a small niche in the market or a few techniques, rather than trying to be able to do everything. Hopefully the second description fits you a little better, but if the first one seems a little too familiar, you now at least know how to start getting past that barrier.

What's the difference between winning traders and losing traders?

  
  Education
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winners-and-losers1Well, first, there are a few similarities. Both are completely consumed by the idea of trading. The winners as well as losers have committed to doing this, and have no intention of ‘going back’. This same black-and-white mentality was evident in their personal lives too. But what about the differences? Here’s what Williams observed:

The losing traders have unrealistic expectations about the kind of profits they can make, typically shooting too high. They also debate with themselves before taking a trade, and even dwell on a trade well after it’s closed out. But the one big thing Williams noticed about this group was that they paid little attention to money management (i.e. defense).And the winners? This group has an intense focus on money management, and will voluntarily exit a trade if it’s not moving – even if it’s not losing money at that time! There is also very little internal dialogue about trade selection and trade management; this group just takes action instead of suffering analysis paralysis. Finally, the winning traders focused their attention on a small niche in the market or a few techniques, rather than trying to be able to do everything. Hopefully the second description fits you a little better, but if the first one seems a little too familiar, you now at least know how to start getting past that barrier.

Improve your Trading Skill

  
  Education
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Would you believe that a 14th century priest, and his concepts, can help make you a better trader?  Well, English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham really can make you a better trader.

Ockham developed the concept commonly referred to as Occam’s Razor.  Simply put, this principle favors the simple over the complex, when there is a choice to be made, or a path to be followed.

How can this apply to trading? A few different ways.

First, if you are a system trader, perhaps your approach has too many rules, too many parameters, or too much optimizing.  While every parameter you add might make your system better historically, the more parameters you have, the less prone the system is to work going forward.  Simpler concepts and simple rules tend to be based on fundamental market principles – ones that aren’t as likely to change.

Second, if you are a discretionary trader, you might trade off of news reports from CNBC, Bloomberg and multiple other sources.  Multiple news sources might give you more data, but does it really give you more knowledge?  You might find that with multiple, conflicting pieces of information, you actually can’t trade at all – rather, you are a victim of “analysis paralysis.”

Third, maybe your trading office looks like the control room for the Space Shuttle. If you try to trade off all of the information shown on all the screens, you might just find yourself overwhelmed.  It is better to stick to a few monitors of information, and know that information very well.  The best traders don’t need a dozen monitors to trade well – usually 1 or 2 monitors is plenty.

Many new traders tend to think that that more complicated they make trading, the easier it will be to “solve” the markets.  Instead, they should be listening to William of Ockham, and making things simpler.  Simple, done correctly, can lead to more profits, and stand the test of time better than complicated approaches.

Day Trading – Trade Reluctance

  
  Education
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ReluctanceA problem that plagues all traders from time-to-time, trade reluctance, or the inability to pull the trigger has many causes. Recognizing yourself among the following Trade Reluctance Types can go a long way toward eliminating the problem. 

ALARMIST: Characterized by energy being diverted away from placing trades into over-vigilant preparation for low probability catastrophes. Habitual worrying about the worst case scenario. 

ANALYSIS PARALYSIS: Characterized by energy being over-invested in analyzing at the expense of executing trades. Preparation for making trades is out of control. Trader is a walking encyclopedia of technical information with little or no profits to show for it. 

HYPER-PRO: Characterized by energy being lost due to over-investment in the mannerisms and appearances of success. Energy is expended at the expense of goal-supporting behaviors such as analyzing trade performance or analysis for the next trading session, which is viewed as “demeaning” and “unprofessional,” and/or “shouldn’t be necessary.” Often accompanied by over-stylized use of professional jargon, name-dropping, and a reflexive need to appear better informed and more sophisticated than the “average” trader.  (more…)

INQUISITIVENESS & COMPREHENSION for Traders

  
  Education
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INQUISITIVENESS:  Just another word for curiosity and is the ever-present desire for information and understanding.  Unfortunately this characteristic can easily turn into  analysis paralysis, wherein the sheer quantity of information overwhelms the decision making process itself.  The solution is to remain focused on a very small segment of the market and is at the very heart of successful trading. There is just too much information out there to ever be able to make sense of it all.  Instead, the idea should be to direct your energy toward your trading methodology and not stray when tempted to.

  COMPREHENSION: This is the trader’s ability to attend to the smallest details of his or her trading plan.  I believe a trader must have rules for entering and exiting a trade before the trade is made.  In the beginning these rules can be in the form of a checklist wherein before each trade all the details of your rules are checked and verified.  With time, the rules become such as a part of your psyche that the checklist is in your head and can be confirmed with quick precision.  The key is to never change the rules. When the rules stay the same your mind will not be able to play tricks on you.

Paralysis By Analysis

  
  Education
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When too much information is amassed, a person is unable to internalize pertinent data necessary for rapid fire decision making. When one is unable to process the mass amounts of information, inaction occurs.

Common Problems:

  1. Not prioritizing
  2. Confusion
  3. Postponement of decision making
  4. Bad judgement
  5. Time mismanagement
  6. Lack of critical thinking
  7. Feeling psychologically stressed and overwhelmed
  8. Working hard, but feeling behind

Common Causes:

  • The delusion of a infinite range of possibilities to make money.
  • Insistence on completing all analysis before initializing action.
  • Too many variables all at once causing incessant revisiting of original signal.
  • Lack of daily objectives.
  • Choosing quantity over quality
  • Increasingly conflicting trading methods.
  • Creative speculation, that is, you can outguess the guessers.
  • Big Project Syndrome: this system will do it all, will use the latest tools, will use a new paradigm, will start with a clean slate.
  • Risk avoidance, fear of making a mistake.

Viable Solutions:

  • Keep trading system simple. Never integrate varying styles. Building a bigger model doesn’t add clarity – it creates confusion.
  • Do enough analysis to convince yourself the odds are in your favor – and then stop!
  • Refuse to review technical complexities, instead, review working functionality. If you’re not seeing simplicity in trading system design, move on.
  • Start your system design with one requirement based on sound principles, i.e, an architectural prototype. A trading system without a prototype is like a candle without a wick, which is how analysis paralysis really happens.
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