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Chinese oil demand is reportedly almost back to pre-coronavirus crisis levels

  
  Analysis
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Bloomberg reports on the matter

The report says that Chinese oil demand is all but back to levels last seen before nationwide lockdown measures were imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, according to people with inside knowledge of the country’s energy industry.

Adding that consumption of gasoline and diesel has fully recovered as factories reopen and commuters drive rather than use public transport.
The exact level of oil demand in real time – according to executives and traders who monitor the country’s consumption – is said to be about 13 million bpd, which is just shy of the 13.4 million bpd seen around May 2019 and the 13.7 million bpd seen in December 2019.
For some context, the apparent drop in Chinese oil demand was seen at around 20%:
However true the figures are from this report, it is certainly giving hope to oil bulls that the market can recover from the severe imbalance – and perhaps more quickly than thought – that we are seeing currently. WTI crude is now up by over 8% on the day to $31.85.

White House’s Hassett and Kudlow doing the 1-2 spin job after jobs report.

  
  Analysis
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Both White House advisor is speaking

Kudlow:

  • does not think contraction has fully run course
  • US jobs report full of heartbreak, hardships
  • reopening phase will be intimate, spill into June
  • jobs numbers will continue to deteriorate
  • appropriate policies can make roaring economy in 2021
  • will see positive numbers and 2nd half of year
  • providing for virus safety should be fully deductible
  • having meetings with lawmakers of both parties
  • Trump weighing making business expenditures to make changes for coronavirus safety tax deductible
  • three quarters of today’s numbers are temporary layoffs
  • people expect to go back to work
Hassett:
  • unemployment numbers are heartbreaking
  • almost all unemployed expect to be re-hired by employer
  • next report could show 25% unemployment
  • payroll tax cut would only be a part of next package
Clearly there is a coordinated effort to use the word “heartbreaking” (and rightfully so).  They are also aware and touting that the numbers will get worse before they get better. The spin job is less rah-rah than the usual.
Stocks are not worried. They are trading at session highs as the two men finish their interviews.
S&P up 32.65 points at 2913
Nasdaq is up 81 points at 9060.62

Michael Bloomberg climbs into 2nd place on PredictIt for Democratic nominee

  
Analysis, Politics
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Michael Bloomberg is going to get a chance to make his case

Michael Bloomberg is going to get a chance to make his case
We’re still waiting for results from the Iowa caucus but it’s expected to be a win for Bernie or Pete Buttigieg. The story in betting markets, however, is the poor performance from Joe Biden. The market is coming around to the idea that he can’t win and that establishment voters may turn elsewhere.
That leaves Klobuchar, who remains distantly behind, and Bloomberg, who is having his moment.
The billionaire has risen to 20% on PredictIt and passed Joe Biden. I think he lacks the charisma and ability to connect with people to sustain any real momentum, but he certainly has the deep pockets to sustain a run.
If he loses to Bernie, he’s ruled out a 3rd party run but I’m sure he will be dogged by those questions.

China wants 15% tariffs imposed on Sept 1 removed in trade deal

  
Analysis, Politics
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Politico report

China is in a ‘full court press’ to get the 15% tariff imposed by Trump on $112B of goods removed before it signs the Phase One trade deal, according to Politico.
U.S. officials are currently struggling over how to make sure China lives up to its side of the deal. The main enforcement mechanism being considered is that all the tariffs could be re-imposed, one of the people said.
They cited a White House official who said the deal is almost there but there are still hangups on forced technology transfers and IP protections.
China hasn’t decided yet on signing the deal in the US or a neutral location.

US Senator plans legislation to block US govt pensions from investing in Chinese stocks

  
  Analysis
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Senator Marco Rubio want legislation to block the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board from investing in Chinese stocks

  • The Board delayed a decision on switching the benchmark for its $50 billion TSP I Fund to mirror an index with Chinese assets
  • for at least two weeks
  • Rubio said he would introduce bipartisan legislation “to ensure that federal retirement savings can never be a source of wealth funding the Chinese Communist Party at the expense of our nation’s future prosperity”

ICYMI – White House Kudlow says US and China may never reach a trade deal

  
  Analysis
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White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow speaking Tuesday (US time) in an interview. In brief:

  • United States and China may never be able to reach a trade deal
  • Due to the difficulty in resolving the remaining issues
  • said he was an optimist by nature and still believed a deal was possible
I wonder what finally tipped Kudlow into this realisation?
White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow speaking Tuesday (US time) in an interview. In brief:
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