Archives of “American people of German descent” tag

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Trump: US in final throes of reaching a trade deal with China

  
Analysis, Politics
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Positive comments

Reuters is carrying comments from Trump:
  • Trump says in final throes on reaching trade deal with CHina
  • Trump says US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong
This is a slightly different language. It’s the first time in a few days the President has been so optimistic.
I’m reminded that the previous line was that they were in the ‘short strokes’. The modest market reaction suggests that this kind of talk isn’t enough alone to boost sentiment.

Pres Trump: We will be doing a major, middle income tax cut

  
  Analysis
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Trump speaking on healthcare plan

  • signed order and price transparency in healthcare
  • order will force companies to compete
  • rule will compel hospitals to publish prices
  • consumer will have lots of choices regard to doctors hospital and price
  • insurance firms will need to show treatment costs
in addition to his healthcare comments, Pres. Trump has also said:
  • we will be doing a major, middle income tax cut
  • tax-cut will be subject to Republicans winning house

Trump will make a statement on Syria conflict at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump comments to come later

Trump has been tweeting for the past hour with the usual stuff on impeachment and whatever else Fox Business is talking about.
Big success on the Turkey/Syria Border. Safe Zone created! Ceasefire has held and combat missions have ended. Kurds are safe and have worked very nicely with us. Captured ISIS prisoners secured. I will be making a statement at 11:00 A.M. from the White House. Thank you!
Expect the statement to be along those lines but there is always a high risk of Trump going off-script.

Trump blames the stock market decline on ‘impeachment nonsense’

  
Analysis, US Market
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Trump turns his eye away from the Fed

He’s not entirely wrong, the market didn’t like the impeachment headlines when they first hit. But I’d argue that’s because impeachment is more likely to make him erratic and reactionary, if not dangerous.
As for what’s caused the latest leg of US stock market selling, allow me to draw some conclusions:
Trump turns his eye away from the Fed
Here’s his tweet:
All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
However I think in the big picture, you’re going to have a US election in 13 months. How do you have any confidence in stocks on a Warren vs Trump election? That’s a binary outcome.
If the impeachment talk had any bearing, it was because it hurt Biden as much as Trump and that solidified Warren’s lead. She went from +200K in betting odds on Sept 12 to +110 now.

Pres. Trump: China agricultural purchases is not enough

  
  Analysis
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President Trump speaking at a press conference with Australia’s prime minister

  • China agricultural purchases is not enough
  • looking for complete deal with China
  • he does not need a trade yield before the 2020 election
  • China is being affected very badly US economy is very strong
  • China is eating the tariffs
  • Trump has an amazing relationship with Xi, but is having a little spat
  • signing USMCA is very important for the country
  • Australia will be a big beneficiary of China deal
  • expects sanctions to work on Iran
  • military option would work but should never have to use it
  • Iran has a lot of self-made problems

Trump: It is looking like Iran was responsible for attacks on Saudi Arabia

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump comments to reporters:

  • Says he doesn’t want war with anyone but the US is prepared
  • US has a lot of options but he’s not looking at options yet; the US wants to find out who was responsible
This is going to grab headlines and might boost oil but I’m a bit less enthusiastic. Trump has a fairly strong anti-war bent that’s been one of the few consistent themes in his Presidency. There is certainly some reluctance here from him.

US media says Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones in attack on Saudi

  
Analysis, Politics
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ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

  • Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles 
  • over 20 drones from its territory
  • a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.
officially:
  • so far, there’s been no public accusation that Iran launched missiles
Adds ABC:
  • But a senior U.S. official told ABC News Saturday that was false: “It was Iran. The Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”
  • Pompeo tweeted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
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ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

Pres. Trump: Tariffs that are set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on

  
Analysis, Politics
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Pres Trump says tariffs will go on as planned on Sunday.

Pres Trump says tariffs will go on as planned on Sunday.
Before departing the White House for the weekend told reporters,
  • He can’t say whether he will speak to Xi, but US is speaking to China
  • Tariffs set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on
  • “We are going to win the fight” with China
  • Trade meeting with China in September is still on, it has not been canceled
  • US is in incredible negotiating position with China because of tariffs it has placed on Chinese imports
  • He sees a connection between situation in Hong Kong and China trade talks
  • Chinese response in Hong Kong will be much more violent if were not for the trade talks
  • Repeats China wants to make a trade deal
On other topics:
  • Too soon to call for evacuation Florida.  Determination will likely be made on Sunday
  • Asked if he would like to see negative interest rates in the United States, says no.

The squeeze remains on.

Trump says euro ‘dropping like crazy’ as he laments dollar

  
Analysis, Forex
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Trump with his usual rant against the dollar and the Fed

The latest tweet:
The Euro is dropping against the Dollar “like crazy,” giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage…and the Fed does NOTHING! Our Dollar is now the strongest in history. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Except to those (manufacturers) that make product for sale outside the U.S. We don’t have a Tariff problem (we are reigning in bad and/or unfair players), we have a Fed problem. They don’t have a clue!
Here’s what ‘like crazy’ looks like:
Trump with his usual rant against the dollar and the Fed
The euro is down 0.75% against the US dollar in the past three months. The euro is higher today than it was on the day Trump was elected… ‘like crazy’ indeed.
EURUSD in Trump's term
Trump is continuing and says:
If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak companies are smartly blaming these small Tariffs instead of themselves for bad management…and who can really blame them for doing that? Excuses!
There are rumors that he was going to delay the tariffs that kick in on Sunday but this doesn’t sound like a guy who is about to backtrack.

Dollar holds firmer amid shift in risk mood earlier

  
  Analysis
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Markets are still largely more optimistic following Trump’s remarks on trade

EUR/USD H1 26-08

The dollar is holding firmer across the board following Trump’s more optimistic take on trade relations with China earlier in the European morning. Although the greenback has pared its advance against the aussie, it has notably gained against the euro, pound and yen.

EUR/USD is now trading near the lows for the day at around 1.1117 with the euro also finding little comfort from the latest German Ifo survey report moments ago.
Although the dollar is traditionally seen as a haven currency, one of the key factors affecting the currency now is Fed pricing.
Earlier in the day, Fed fund futures saw ~29% odds of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps in September. After Trump’s remarks, those odds have been slashed to just ~15% now.
As such, that is helping to put a bid back in the dollar. Looking ahead, be wary of potential trade developments as it will continue to play a part in influencing Fed expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
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