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2009…Heads or Tails?

  
  Education
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headsortails

Adam Smith (1723 – 1790) in “The Money Game” wrote:
“Prices have no memory and yesterday has nothing to do with tomorrow. Every day starts out fifty-fifty!”
If the above statement is to be trusted, then you could just take the 50 – 50 odds, expand their daily time horizon to a yearly one, and decide whether or not to “stay in the stock market game” in 2009!
Decide on just a flip of a coin?
Given the past year’s negative returns, what does this “flip” imply for the investors’ chances this coming year?
Well, that is a matter of asking the question the right way!
If you assume that the years are flipping randomly, and that there is no bias for any year, then you could ask if it is fair enough to assume that flipping through a calendar is otherwise the same as just flipping a coin?
Let’s assume that you were just flipping a coin. Then, YES …
The odds of one flip would always be 50 – 50!
Indeed, you might be led to start questioning about how fair the coin actually would be! In this case, you really should look back and base your expectations on historical econometric analysis and try to establish how fair the coin would be!
But if you are guessing that some things do look like a flip of a coin, shouldn’t you also assume that just because we had a negative year, we’re now going to get a positive one?
Who knows … Investments based on that kind of speculation might actually end up yielding a positive result!
But the odds are still only 50 – 50!
On the other hand …
I do know that …
I will get a much better than 50 -50 chance!

To Be Happy

  
Education, Life
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be-happyIf you are after specific investment advice, stop reading now. We seek to explore one of Adam Smith’s obsessions: what it means to be happy. We also discuss why that’s important to investors, and how we can seek to improve our own levels of happiness. The list below shows our top ten suggestions for improving happiness.

  • Don’t equate happiness with money. People adapt to income shifts relatively quickly, the long lasting benefits are essentially zero.
  • Exercise regularly. Taking regular exercise generates further energy, and stimulates the mind and the body.
  • Have sex (preferably with someone you love). Sex is consistently rated as amongst the highest generators of happiness. So what are you waiting for?
  • Devote time and effort to close relationships. Close relationships require work and effort, but pay vast rewards in terms of happiness.
  • Pause for reflection, meditate on the good things in life. Simple reflection on the good aspects of life helps prevent hedonic adaptation.
  • Seek work that engages your skills, look to enjoy your job. It makes sense to do something you enjoy. This in turn is likely to allow you to flourish at your job, creating a pleasant feedback loop.
  • Give your body the sleep it needs.
  • Don’t pursue happiness for its own sake, enjoy the moment. Faulty perceptions of what makes you happy, may lead to the wrong pursuits. Additionally, activities may become a means to an end, rather than something to be enjoyed, defeating the purpose in the first place.
  • Take control of your life, set yourself achievable goals.
  • Remember to follow all the rules.
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